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Monday, June 23

Noteworthy macro moves today: US Dollar Index +0.5%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +1.3%. 

Geopolitical tensions have escalated significantly following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns about potential retaliation from Iran and the stability of global oil supplies. The situation is particularly critical as Iranian officials threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for approximately 20% of daily oil exports, leading to increased risk aversion in financial markets.

In economic data releases today, Germany's Services PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4 in June from May’s 47.1—surpassing expectations—and indicating only a slight contraction within that sector amid ongoing challenges with employment levels declining for over a year now. Conversely, France reported weaker performance across its private sectors; both Manufacturing and Composite PMIs fell short of market forecasts at readings below neutral growth thresholds.

The U.S Dollar strengthened against major currencies due largely to safe-haven demand amidst these geopolitical developments while also benefiting from recent hawkish signals regarding interest rates by the Federal Reserve after last week's meeting where they indicated minimal rate cuts ahead despite inflationary pressures remaining high globally.

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) [+0.5%, +2.3M]
The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) has increased by 0.5% in pre-market trading, coinciding with a strengthening of the US Dollar Index (USDX). This uptick in the USDX follows heightened geopolitical tensions due to recent military actions by the United States against Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Such uncertainties have driven demand for safe-haven assets like the US dollar. Additionally, signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate stability amid inflationary pressures are bolstering a bullish outlook for the dollar. The USD/JPY pair has also seen an increase, reflecting broader market dynamics that are likely influencing the dollar's performance.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) [+0.2%, +77.8M]
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has moved up by 0.4% in pre-market trading, reflecting a daily return of approximately 0.37%. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. This situation has contributed to increased prices for WTI and Brent crude oil. Additionally, social media discussions highlighted a significant weekly inflow of $1 billion into energy stocks, marking the largest influx since October 2023. Concerns regarding Iran's potential retaliation, which could disrupt global oil flows, have also been a focal point of conversation. Among XLE's holdings, notable contributors included Exxon Mobil and Chevron, both of which posted increased returns.

EXEL | +21.3% | +3.0B
Exelixis Inc | Biotechnology
Exelixis Inc. has garnered significant attention following the announcement of positive results from the STELLAR-303 phase 3 trial. The trial demonstrated that zanzalintinib, in combination with atezolizumab, achieved a statistically significant improvement in overall survival compared to regorafenib for patients with previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer. This announcement, made approximately 14 hours ago, was bolstered by reports indicating a statistically significant reduction in the risk of death in the intent-to-treat population. Additionally, JMP Securities and Truist Securities have raised their price targets for Exelixis, setting them at 50 and 55, respectively. These developments coincide with the notable price movement observed today.

HIMS | -19.3% | -2.1B
Hims & Hers Health Inc | Health Care Services
Hims & Hers Health, Inc. has seen a significant decline in its stock price following the termination of its collaboration with Novo Nordisk regarding the weight loss drug Wegovy. This partnership, initiated in April 2025, allowed the company to offer Wegovy through a bundled service. The termination was prompted by concerns over illegal mass compounding and deceptive marketing practices associated with Hims & Hers. As a result, the company will no longer have direct access to Wegovy via NovoCare Pharmacy. Additionally, Bank of America has reiterated an Underperform rating on Hims & Hers, setting a price target of $28. The analyst highlighted a considerable decrease in the company's core revenue growth year-over-year, dropping significantly from the previous year, even with positive impacts from transitioning customers to longer-duration subscriptions.

NVO | -5.7% | -13.2B
Novo Nordisk A/S | Pharmaceuticals
Novo Nordisk A/S has terminated its collaboration with Hims & Hers Health, effective immediately. This decision ends direct access to Wegovy® via Hims & Hers' platform, a partnership that began in April. Novo Nordisk cited concerns over Hims & Hers' compliance with legal standards related to drug sales and marketing practices. Concurrently, discussions on social media have highlighted promising results from Novo's obesity treatment pipeline. Recent data from the Phase 3b STEP UP trial indicated that a higher dose of Wegovy achieved significant weight loss in participants with obesity. Additionally, findings from the REDEFINE 1 trial showed that investigational drug CagriSema demonstrated substantial weight reduction in adults with obesity. Concerns were also raised regarding dosing strategies for Novo's new amylin drug, Amycretin, which exhibited effective weight loss across varying doses.

NTRS | +5.5% | +1.3B
Northern Trust Corp | Asset Management & Custody Banks
Bank of New York Mellon approached Northern Trust last week to discuss a potential merger, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The CEOs of both firms engaged in at least one conversation, although no specific offer was made. BNY is considering its next steps, which may include a formal bid. Northern Trust's market value is approximately 21.76 billion, while BNY Mellon's stands at around 65.55 billion. This news has contributed to a notable rise in Northern Trust's share price. Additionally, social media discussions have highlighted significant interest in the merger talks, with mentions of unusual trading activity, including the accumulation of 20,000 July $110 call options for Northern Trust, suggesting a response to the merger speculation.

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