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Friday, October 10

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) -1.7%. US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.3%. 

The U.S. government shutdown, now in its tenth day, continues to impact market sentiment and economic data releases. Key reports such as the September Nonfarm Payrolls are delayed due to this impasse, raising concerns about slower growth and reinforcing expectations for further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

In recent economic updates from Japan, producer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in September—exceeding forecasts—and bank lending grew at a faster pace than expected at 3.8%. These developments suggest resilience within Japan's economy despite ongoing political uncertainties surrounding leadership changes that may affect fiscal policy direction.

Meanwhile, European markets face pressure amid heightened political uncertainty following French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s resignation; investors await news on his successor while grappling with potential implications for France's fiscal stability and broader Eurozone dynamics affecting currency valuations against the backdrop of mixed corporate earnings outlooks across major indices.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) [+1.0%]
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has experienced a price increase of 1.0% since Thursday. Concurrently, the 10-year yield has decreased by 3.9 basis points to 4.109%, ahead of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment reading set for release on Friday at 10 A.M. ET. The US 30-Year Treasury Bond has also increased, driven by haven demand amid political uncertainties in Japan and France. Its daily return is approximately positive. Additionally, Federal Reserve officials have expressed support for further interest rate cuts, attributing this stance to a cooling labor market influenced by the government shutdown's effects on official statistics. These developments collectively create an environment conducive to T-Bond price support as investors seek safety amidst prevailing economic uncertainties.

iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) [-2.1%]
The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) has dropped significantly in pre-market trading, reflecting a daily return of nearly -2%. The Bank of Japan's recent September Quarterly Survey indicates that 88% of Japanese households expect price increases over the next year, an uptick from the previous survey, with an average inflation expectation of 11.9%. Additionally, 84.8% foresee price rises over the next five years. The Japanese Yen's depreciation is attributed to political uncertainty following Sanae Takaichi's election as the first female prime minister, raising concerns about potential shifts in economic policy. This situation is compounded by remarks from Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito regarding coalition stability and Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato's comments on rapid currency movements. Notably, significant contributors to the ETF's performance include MUFG, TM, SONY, SMFG, and MFG, all of which have seen declines.

BABA | -1.7% | -55.7B
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | Broadline Retail
Alibaba shares dropped significantly in Hong Kong, following a report that Sunwah Kingsway Capital Holdings sold 100,000 shares for HK$10.8 million, realizing a gain of approximately HK$1 million. Concurrently, Chinese authorities have mandated that tech companies, including Alibaba, cease orders and testing of Nvidia products as part of a broader initiative to reduce reliance on U.S. technology. This directive comes amid intensified inspections that may alter the operational landscape for Alibaba. Additionally, discussions on social media highlighted comments from Alibaba's CEO, who noted that the pace of AI industry development and demand for AI infrastructure have far exceeded expectations. Posts also referenced the chairman's connection to the NBA, which could influence public perception of the company.

APLD | +28.1% | +1.4B
Applied Digital Corp | Internet Services & Infrastructure
Applied Digital Corporation reported its fiscal first-quarter 2026 results, showing an adjusted loss per share of $0.03, outperforming the consensus estimate of a $0.13 loss. Revenue for the quarter reached $64.216 million, exceeding expectations of $49.969 million and reflecting an 84% year-over-year increase from $34.8 million. The company secured a new lease agreement with CoreWeave for an additional 150 megawatts at its Polaris Forge 1 campus, raising total anticipated lease revenue to approximately $11 billion over 15 years. As of August 31, Applied Digital held a cash position of $114.1 million against total debt of $687.3 million. Following the earnings report, shares surged significantly in after-hours trading, reflecting strong market sentiment and a notable percentage of shares reported as shorted, suggesting potential for a short squeeze.

AMCR | +3.1% | +357.5M
Amcor PLC | Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Amcor PLC has appointed Stephen R. Scherger as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective November 10, 2025. He will succeed Michael Casamento, who will transition to an advisory role until June 30, 2026. Scherger brings over 30 years of experience in finance and operations within the packaging industry, having previously served as CFO at Graphic Packaging, where he notably increased net sales and income. Concurrently, Amcor reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting adjusted earnings per share between 80 and 83 cents, reflecting a growth of 12% to 17% on a constant currency basis. The company anticipates free cash flow for fiscal 2026 to range from $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion. Additionally, Amcor set its EPS guidance for Q1 FY2026 at $0.18 to $0.20. This news appears to have positively influenced the stock price in pre-market trading, with a reported increase of 3.1% since Thursday.

MOS | -6.6% | -660.5M
Mosaic Co | Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Mosaic Co reported preliminary third quarter 2025 phosphate production volumes of approximately 1.7 million tonnes, with sales volumes around 1.6 million tonnes, both figures falling below expectations due to mechanical issues and utility interruptions. Challenges at the Riverview sulfuric acid plant and shipment timing delays impacted phosphate sales. Conversely, Mosaic Fertilizantes experienced a significant increase in sales volumes, reaching approximately 2.8 million tonnes, a notable rise from the previous quarter. Potash production and sales remained steady at about 2.3 million tonnes each. Following this announcement, Mosaic's stock declined by 7% in premarket trading. Additionally, Barclays has reduced its target price for Mosaic Co to 44 from 46 while maintaining an Overweight rating.

VRT | +3.5% | +2.3B
Vertiv Holdings Co | Electrical Components & Equipment
Vertiv Holdings Co has experienced a notable price increase, attributed in part to a recent report from Citi that positions the company favorably alongside Eaton Corporation. This report, published approximately 24 hours ago, has sparked optimism regarding their market performances. Additionally, Citi has raised its target price for Vertiv to 192 from 167 while maintaining a Buy rating. This information was disseminated after market hours yesterday and has likely influenced the stock's upward movement observed today.

CVS | +1.7% | +1.6B
CVS Health Corp | Health Care Services
CVS Health Corp's shares have risen, influenced by the robust performance of its Health Care Services sub-sector. The uptick follows positive news regarding Aetna, CVS's insurance business, which reported that over 81% of its Medicare Advantage plan members for 2026 received ratings of 4 stars or higher. Notably, more than 63% of these members are enrolled in plans rated 4.5 stars. This assessment was published by the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, emphasizing Aetna's strong standing in the Medicare Advantage market. Additionally, Mizuho raised its target price for CVS Health from 76 to 88 while maintaining an Outperform rating, further contributing to the stock's upward movement.

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