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Tuesday, July 22

Noteworthy macro moves today: Bitcoin +1.7%. 

Recent economic data from the UK indicates a significant widening of public sector net borrowing, which rose to £20.7 billion in June 2025, surpassing market expectations and marking the highest level since April 2021. This increase was largely driven by heightened spending on debt interest payments amid rising overall expenditures.

In parallel, trade tensions between the United States and European Union are escalating as negotiations approach an August 1 deadline for potential tariffs imposed by President Trump on EU imports. The EU is reportedly preparing retaliatory measures while U.S.-EU talks have shown little progress recently, contributing to uncertainty that may affect global markets.

Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech today has garnered attention amidst ongoing scrutiny regarding his independence due to political pressures from President Trump. While no direct comments about monetary policy are expected during this blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, any remarks defending Fed autonomy could significantly influence investor sentiment given current concerns over tariff impacts and inflation dynamics.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [-0.5%]
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has experienced a decline of 0.5% since Monday. Social media discussions have highlighted a transition from stagflation to disinflation, with potential recession concerns. The Russell 2000 ETF did not exceed its July range high, mirroring SMH's inability to break through similar resistance levels. Among the ETF's holdings, Nvidia faced challenges re-entering the Chinese market due to supply chain issues, contributing to its performance drop. NXP Semiconductors reported a significant revenue decline and provided third-quarter guidance below analyst expectations, leading to a notable after-hours trading drop. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased slightly, reflecting broader market sentiment affecting technology stocks, including semiconductors.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [+1.7%]
Bitcoin has increased, surpassing $120,000 for the first time, buoyed by strong bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market. This rise coincides with a weakening U.S. dollar and positive regulatory developments, including the signing of the GENIUS Act, which establishes standards for stablecoins and integrates cryptocurrencies into federal regulations. Social media buzz has intensified following Elon Musk's SpaceX transferring 1,308 BTC, valued at $153 million, to a new wallet after three years of dormancy. Concurrently, JPMorgan announced plans to offer loans secured by clients' BTC and ETH, reflecting a significant shift in its stance towards cryptocurrencies. Additionally, Figma has filed for an IPO at a $16.5 billion valuation and revealed intentions to increase its BTC exposure through Bitcoin ETFs. Meanwhile, electric vehicle company Volcon has launched a Bitcoin treasury strategy, initially allocating 280 BTC and aiming to raise $500 million for further acquisitions.

PM | -4.9% | -13.1B
Philip Morris International Inc | Tobacco
Philip Morris International Inc. reported its second-quarter earnings, revealing an adjusted EPS of 1.91, exceeding the consensus estimate of 1.86. Revenues increased year-over-year by 7.1% to 10.14 billion, although this fell short of the expected 10.33 billion. The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of 7.43 to 7.56, up from the previous guidance of 7.36 to 7.49. Despite the positive EPS beat, the revenue miss has led to negative market sentiment, contributing to a share price decline of approximately 4.8%. Total shipment volume grew by 1.2%, with smoke-free product shipments rising by 11.8%, while cigarette volumes decreased by 1.5%. Adjusted operating income reached 4.25 billion, surpassing estimates of 4.11 billion.

LMT | -7.1% | -7.3B
Lockheed Martin Corp | Aerospace & Defense
Lockheed Martin Corp reported disappointing Q2 results, with net income falling to $342 million, or $1.46 per share, down significantly from $1.64 billion, or $6.85 per share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue was reported at $18.16 billion, below the consensus estimate of $18.57 billion. The company also lowered its fiscal year 2025 EPS guidance to approximately $21.70-$22.00 from a prior range of $27.00-$27.30, which was lower than the consensus estimate of $27.46. The earnings report indicated pre-tax losses of $1.6 billion primarily related to classified programs and helicopter operations. Operating profit was reported at $748 million, well below the expected $2.15 billion. Lockheed Martin delivered 50 F-35 aircraft and maintained its full-year cash flow forecast between $8.50 billion and $8.10 billion, while also backing its revenue outlook of $73.75 billion to $74.75 billion.

MEDP | +44.8% | +6.2B
Medpace Holdings Inc | Life Sciences Tools & Services
Medpace Holdings, Inc. reported robust Q2 results, achieving net revenues of 603.3 million, up from 528.1 million in the previous year and exceeding analysts' expectations. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of 3.10, surpassing estimates of 2.97 and reflecting an increase from 2.75 year-over-year. Following these results, Medpace raised its FY25 EPS guidance to a range of 13.76 to 14.53, up from 12.26 to 13.04, and increased its revenue forecast to between 2.42 billion and 2.52 billion, previously set at 2.14 billion to 2.24 billion. The stock reacted positively in after-hours trading, with significant increases noted shortly after the earnings announcement. Social media discussions highlighted a backlog conversion rate of 21.2% and a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.03x, with new business awards totaling 620.5 million for the quarter, reflecting a 12.6% increase from the prior year.

DHI | +6.9% | +3.2B
DR Horton Inc | Homebuilding
D.R. Horton, Inc. reported third-quarter earnings per share of 3.36, surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.90. Revenue for the quarter reached 9.2 billion, exceeding expectations of 8.8 billion. The company has narrowed its fiscal 2025 revenue outlook to between 33.7 billion and 34.2 billion, down from a previous range of 33.3 billion to 34.8 billion. Net sales orders for the third quarter totaled 23,071 homes, with the order value decreasing by 3% to 8.4 billion. The backlog of homes under contract fell by 19% in value to 5.3 billion and by 16% in quantity to 14,075 homes. D.R. Horton declared a quarterly dividend of 0.40 per share, payable on August 14, 2025. Following these results, the stock saw an increase of approximately 7.3% in pre-market trading.

CSX | +3.9% | +2.7B
CSX Corp | Rail Transportation
CSX Corp has seen a notable price increase following the announcement of a new rail transportation routing option, the Southeast Mexico Express (SMX), which connects shippers in Mexico, Texas, and the southeastern U.S. This corridor is set to enhance transit times and capacity for automotive, intermodal, and carload customers while promoting environmentally sustainable solutions. Additionally, social media discussions have highlighted speculation that Berkshire Hathaway's BNSF may be considering a bid for a competing railway, with implications for CSX. Posts indicate that this potential move could positively influence CSX's stock value. Furthermore, CSX is expected to announce its Q2 FY2025 earnings, with an EPS estimate of $0.42 and revenue estimate of $3.6 billion after market close on July 23, 2025.

GM | -2.6% | -1.5B
General Motors Co | Automobile Manufacturers
General Motors reported Q2 net income of $1.895 billion, a decrease from $2.933 billion year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell to $2.53, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.40 but down from $3.06 in the previous year. Revenue reached $47.122 billion, slightly below last year's $47.969 billion but above expectations of $45.57 billion. The company reaffirmed its FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $8.25 to $10.00, although analysts had anticipated a higher consensus of $9.31. GM also highlighted a net tariff drag of $1.1 billion for Q2 and expects a gross tariff impact of $4 billion to $5 billion for calendar 2025, with anticipated higher net impacts in Q3. Vehicle sales totaled 974,000 units, below the estimate of 998,970 units. Following the earnings release, GM's stock declined approximately 2.5% in pre-market trading.

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