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Monday, July 7

Noteworthy macro moves today: US Dollar Index +0.4%. Platinum -2.8%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Tesla Inc (TSLA) -6.1%.

Market sentiment has turned risk-averse as investors await the U.S. government's announcement of new tariffs, set to be communicated by July 9 and effective August 1. President Trump indicated that letters outlining tariff rates would begin distribution today, with potential increases ranging from 10% to a staggering 70%, depending on the outcomes of trade negotiations.

In economic data releases, Germany's industrial production unexpectedly rose by 1.2% in May compared to market expectations for no growth following an earlier contraction of -1.6%. This positive development contrasts sharply with recent declines in factory orders and retail sales across Europe, contributing mixed signals about the region’s economic health amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Additionally, strong employment figures released last week showed that the U.S economy added significantly more jobs than anticipated—147K versus forecasts of around 110K—with unemployment dropping to its lowest level since January at 4.1%. These results have tempered expectations for immediate interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve while bolstering confidence in equity markets despite looming uncertainties surrounding international trade policies.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) [-1.9%]
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has experienced a notable decline of over 2% since Thursday, coinciding with falling gold prices amid a strengthening U.S. Dollar. This shift follows President Trump's announcement of new tariffs targeting nations aligned with BRICS' anti-American policies. Concurrently, social media discussions reveal that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are re-engaging with gold, hinting at a potential increase in market positioning. The top contributors to GDX's performance include several holdings that reported negative returns, with Royal Gold Inc. announcing significant acquisitions valued at $3.7 billion, which are expected to enhance its production capacity in the coming years. Additionally, silver prices have also dropped, reflecting broader market sentiment and potentially influencing the dynamics within the gold mining sector.

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) [-1.0%]
The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) has seen a decline of 1.0% since Thursday. Key holdings have contributed to this downturn, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) reporting a drop in performance due to delays in expanding its operations in Japan amid tariff concerns. Additionally, PDD Holdings Inc faced challenges as the U.S. ended tax exemptions for low-value goods from China, impacting its Temu platform. United Microelectronics Corp (UMC) reported positive year-over-year sales growth, yet its stock price movement remained subdued. The AUD/USD currency pair has also declined by 0.80%, reflecting broader market sentiment that could be influencing emerging market equities like VWO.

TSLA | -6.0% | -56.8B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc's stock has dropped significantly in pre-market trading, reflecting broader pressures within the Automobile Manufacturers sector. This decline follows Elon Musk's announcement regarding the formation of a new political party, the America Party, which has garnered criticism, including from former DOGE advisor James Fishback. Concerns have been raised about potential distractions for Musk as CEO of Tesla. Additionally, the recent tax bill proposed by President Trump, which eliminates essential EV tax credits, further complicates Tesla's market position. Investment firm William Blair has downgraded Tesla's rating to Market Perform, citing these distractions and challenges, including a projected $2 billion hit to regulatory credit profits. Social media sentiment echoes these concerns, highlighting frustration among investors regarding Musk's political ambitions and their potential impact on Tesla's future.

CORZ | -14.2% | -389.2M
Core Scientific Inc | Internet Services & Infrastructure
Core Scientific Inc shares dropped significantly in premarket trading, declining by 16% following the announcement of an all-stock acquisition by CoreWeave valued at approximately $9 billion. Under the terms of the merger, Core Scientific shareholders will receive 0.1235 shares of CoreWeave for each share they own, representing a premium of about 66% over Core Scientific's recent closing price. The deal is expected to streamline operations and eliminate over $10 billion in future lease overhead. The transaction is anticipated to close in Q4 2025, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals. Conversations on social media highlighted that the past week has been significant for multiple stocks, including Core Scientific, suggesting that the upcoming week could be eventful.

RGLD | -5.7% | -634.8M
Royal Gold Inc | Gold
Royal Gold Inc. has announced its intention to acquire Sandstorm Gold Ltd. for approximately $3.5 billion in an all-stock transaction, offering Sandstorm shareholders a 21% premium based on the 20-day volume-weighted average price. Additionally, Royal Gold plans to acquire Horizon Copper Corp. for C$2.00 per share in cash, valuing this transaction at around $196 million, which represents an 85% premium to the 20-day VWAP. The combined transactions are expected to add 40 producing assets and increase Royal Gold's gold equivalent production by approximately 26% in 2025. Completion of these acquisitions is contingent upon shareholder approvals from both companies and is anticipated to close in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the pre-market session, Royal Gold's stock price has moved down significantly since Thursday.

GEO | +7.4% | +280.4M
Geo Group Inc | Security & Alarm Services
Geo Group Inc's stock has increased significantly following the approval of President Trump's tax and spending bill by both the Senate and House of Representatives. This legislation allocates substantial funding for immigrant detention centers, tripling federal spending to $45 billion over four years. The increase is expected to enhance U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement's (ICE) capacity, raising the number of available beds for detainees from an average of 56,000 to approximately 100,000. This legislative framework is part of a broader immigration enforcement strategy that includes funding for the U.S.-Mexico border wall and surveillance technology. Additionally, social media discussions have noted a rise in retail volume for GEO shares, with mentions of a potential surge of 10% to 30% in conjunction with the recent legislative developments that may positively impact its operations.

COGT | +16.7% | +141.7M
Cogent Biosciences Inc | Biotechnology
Cogent Biosciences Inc. reported significant results from the SUMMIT trial of bezuclastinib for non-advanced systemic mastocytosis. The trial showed clinically meaningful improvements across all primary and key secondary endpoints, with patients experiencing a mean reduction in total symptom score at 24 weeks. Notably, 87.4% of patients treated with bezuclastinib had at least a 50% reduction in serum tryptase levels, compared to none in the placebo group. The company plans to submit a new drug application to the FDA by the end of 2025 and will present detailed results at an upcoming medical conference. Social media discussions indicate heightened activity around Cogent, with mentions of positive top-line results from the SUMMIT trial and increased trading volume, reflecting a bullish sentiment among traders. Cogent currently holds $237 million in cash, with access to an additional $350 million via a debt facility.

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