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Wednesday, November 6

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: USD/CNH +1.5%. US Dollar Index +1.8%. Gold -3.0%. Some of the largest moves among US mega-cap stocks include: Tesla Inc (TSLA) +12.7%. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) +6.4%. UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) +6.3%. 

The financial markets are reacting strongly to the recent U.S. presidential election results, with Donald Trump projected as the winner. This outcome has led to a significant surge in major stock indices and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which reached an all-time high of $75,000 amid expectations for pro-business policies under Trump's administration that could boost economic growth.

In addition to equity gains, there is notable movement in bond yields; specifically, 10-year Treasury yields have risen sharply following the election news. The anticipated fiscal changes associated with a potential Trump presidency include tax cuts and increased tariffs on imports from countries such as China and those within Europe—factors contributing to inflationary pressures expected by market participants.

Economic data releases also reflect ongoing trends: mortgage applications in the U.S. fell significantly due to rising interest rates linked partly to these political developments while PMI figures indicate mixed performance across sectors globally but highlight concerns about future demand amidst geopolitical uncertainties stemming from trade policy shifts likely influenced by Trump's victory.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) [-3.0%]
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has experienced a significant decline of 3.0% in pre-market trading. This movement coincides with a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, which reached overnight highs. The U.S. dollar has also strengthened notably, further impacting long-duration bond ETFs like TLT. Social media discussions reveal a notable amount of short selling of U.S. Treasury Bonds, attributed to expectations surrounding a Republican victory, with TLT dropping from $93 to $92 in after-hours trading. Concerns about increased government debt are prevalent among users, while some express a contrarian view that potential government spending cuts could eventually rally bonds like TLT. The recent election of Donald Trump as President has triggered these financial market movements, contributing to a significant drop in the value of the US 30Y Treasury Bond today.

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) [+1.8%]
The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) has seen a notable increase of 1.8% since Tuesday, coinciding with a significant rise in the U.S. dollar index, which surged by 1.38% to 104.85 following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election. This political outcome has spurred expectations of pro-business policies, contributing to broad gains in U.S. futures and major stock indices. Concurrently, social media discussions highlight contrasting sentiments regarding UUP's recent performance, noting its worst two-day decline since late August, while a JPMorgan report suggests potential for a further rise in the dollar under a Trump administration. The U.S. dollar index has reached a four-month high amid these developments, reflecting broader market movements that are historically correlated with UUP.

TSLA | +12.6% | +114.1B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc's stock has surged significantly, rising over 12% in pre-market trading. This movement aligns with a broader market uptrend, as evidenced by the S&P 500 Index's increase of over 2%. Specific to Tesla, the company has announced the commencement of Cybertruck deliveries in Canada, expanding its market reach into a third country after the U.S. and Mexico. The starting price for the all-wheel drive variant is set at approximately C$137,990. Additionally, reports regarding a projected Donald Trump victory in the U.S. Presidential elections have been noted, with analysts suggesting this could positively impact Tesla's stock value by potentially adding $40 to $50 per share. Social media discussions reflect a strong positive sentiment surrounding this election outcome, with Tesla's market capitalization reportedly increasing by around $120 billion following the results.

COIN | +12.6% | +6.7B
Coinbase Global Inc | Financial Exchanges & Data
Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) has experienced a notable price increase, driven primarily by a significant upward movement in the Financial Exchanges & Data sub-sector. This rise coincides with broader market trends, as evidenced by the surge in the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares and the Russell 2000 Index. Additionally, Bitcoin has reached a record price following Donald Trump's recent election, further fueling positive sentiment towards cryptocurrency stocks, including Coinbase. Social media discussions have highlighted COIN's recent performance, with mentions of a potential 1,400% increase under certain conditions. Furthermore, Coinbase's Crypto Super PAC is backing Trump, which may influence market perceptions. Analysts maintain a cautious outlook for the company, with a consensus rating of "Hold," despite its strategic initiatives aimed at diversifying revenue streams and expanding into new markets.

JPM | +7.1%| +48.3B
JPMorgan Chase & Co | Diversified Banks
JPMorgan Chase & Co is experiencing a notable increase in its stock price, influenced primarily by the broader movement within the Diversified Banks sub-sector. The bank is intensifying its commitment to biodiversity initiatives, as articulated by Gwen Yu, head of nature and biodiversity. Following the recent United Nations Biodiversity Conference, JPMorgan plans to organize deals and explore financing opportunities, emphasizing project bankability. Additionally, analysts at JPMorgan have projected that a Republican sweep in the upcoming elections could lead to a significant appreciation of the U.S. dollar, while a victory for Kamala Harris might result in a decline. These insights have sparked discussions on social media, particularly regarding potential shifts in currency movements based on electoral outcomes.

EXAS | -17.7%| -1.9B
Exact Sciences Corp | Biotechnology
Exact Sciences Corp's shares are experiencing a significant decline following the release of its third-quarter financial results, which were worse than anticipated. The company reported a GAAP loss of $0.21 per share, missing consensus estimates of a $0.20 loss. Revenue of $709 million also fell short of expectations of $717.66 million. In response, Exact Sciences revised its fiscal year 2024 revenue guidance down to between $2.73 billion and $2.75 billion, compared to the previous estimate of $2.81 billion to $2.85 billion. Analysts have reacted by lowering their price targets; Benchmark reduced theirs from $67 to $65, while Canaccord Genuity cut theirs from $95 to $75. Other firms like Baird and BTIG adjusted their targets downward while maintaining their buy ratings. The stock dropped significantly, with a notable decline of 28.1% shortly after the earnings announcement.

FSLR | -13.2% | -2.6B
First Solar Inc | Semiconductors
First Solar Inc's stock has dropped significantly in premarket trading, attributed to negative market sentiment following the electoral defeat of Kamala Harris, a perceived advocate for green initiatives. This sentiment has adversely impacted solar stocks broadly, with First Solar noted to be down approximately 14%. Seaport Global has initiated coverage on First Solar with a Neutral rating, which may not bolster market perceptions. Social media discussions highlight concerns about the stock's decline amid broader market movements, including a downturn in the Solar ETF (TAN). Some analysts suggest that First Solar could still perform well regardless of the political landscape, particularly if tariffs on inexpensive solar imports from China are increased. Additionally, a recent post identified First Solar as one of the "big early losers," alongside other sectors such as cannabis, reflecting ongoing concerns about market conditions affecting solar stocks.

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