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Friday, August 1

Noteworthy macro moves today: US 2Y Treasury Bond +0.3%. US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.7%. US Dollar Index -1.0%.

Recent market movements are significantly influenced by the announcement of new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, which range from 10% to as high as 41% on imports from various countries, including Canada and Switzerland. This escalation in trade tensions has led to a decline in global equity markets, with major indices such as the DAX and FTSE experiencing notable drops due to investor concerns about potential economic impacts.

In addition to tariff-related developments, Nonfarm Payrolls data disappointed with an increase of only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, with a total increase of unemployed individuals reaching 221,000. Additionally, previous months' payroll figures were revised downward by 258,000.

Lastly, Eurozone inflation remains stable at around the European Central Bank’s target rate despite earlier forecasts suggesting it might ease slightly; this stability comes alongside mixed manufacturing PMI results across member states that indicate some resilience but overall contraction within certain sectors like Germany's manufacturing industry.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) [+0.4%]
The July Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed a change of 73,000 jobs, falling short of the anticipated 104,000. The unemployment rate stands at 4.2%. This data may influence market sentiment regarding economic conditions and interest rates, which are critical for long-term treasury bonds. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF went ex-dividend at $0.330802 per share. Additionally, the US 30Y Treasury Bond has declined since Thursday, amid a strengthening US Dollar following President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imports from nearly 70 countries. This escalation in trade tensions is contributing to market uncertainty. Inflationary pressures are also rising, with core PCE prices exceeding expectations, suggesting potential delays in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In related activity, the US 5Y Treasury Bond has increased, reflecting broader market movements that may influence the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) [+1.1%]
Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) has seen a price increase of 1.1% amid recent developments in the macroeconomic landscape. The EUR/USD exchange rate has strengthened, driven by disappointing US Nonfarm Payroll data, which reported a significantly lower job addition than expected. This weak employment report has fueled speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in September, exerting downward pressure on the US dollar. Concurrently, the US unemployment rate has risen slightly, while average hourly earnings have shown an annual increase. Eurozone inflation remains stable, aligning with European Central Bank targets. Additionally, the GBP/USD pair has also risen, reflecting broader market dynamics that may be influencing FXE's recent movement.

COIN | -9.9% | -8.3B
Coinbase Global Inc | Financial Exchanges & Data
Coinbase Global Inc reported disappointing second-quarter results, with revenue of $1.5 billion falling short of expectations, and transaction revenue at $764 million against an estimate of $814 million. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $0.12 was significantly below the anticipated $1.35. Year-over-year revenue decreased by 26%, raising concerns about financial health despite a 12% increase in stablecoin revenue. Operating expenses rose by 15% to $1.5 billion, partly due to costs from a data breach. Following the earnings report, Coinbase shares dropped approximately 9% in after-hours trading. Social media discussions reflected negative sentiment, with users highlighting the need for new product offerings, including plans to launch tokenized stocks and prediction markets for U.S. users, as a response to the current challenges.

RDDT | +15.7% | +4.9B
Reddit Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Reddit Inc. reported strong second-quarter results, with earnings per share of 0.48, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.19. Revenue reached 499.6 million, exceeding expectations of 424.73 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 78%. Daily active unique users grew by 21% to 110.4 million. The company provided optimistic guidance for the third quarter, projecting revenue between 535 million and 545 million, well above the consensus estimate of 471.49 million. Following the earnings announcement, Reddit shares surged in after-hours trading. Advertising revenue increased by 84% year-over-year to 465 million, contributing substantially to overall revenue growth. The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was reported at 167 million, resulting in EBITDA margins of 33%. Positive sentiment on social media reflected the strong performance metrics and growth projections.

AMZN | -7.9% | -177.4B
Amazon.com Inc | Broadline Retail
Amazon.com Inc reported second-quarter net sales of 167.7 billion, up 13% year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations. Earnings per share reached 1.68, exceeding estimates of 1.30. However, AWS revenue grew 17.5% year-over-year to 30.87 billion, falling short of the anticipated 20% growth, raising concerns about competitive positioning against Microsoft and Google. Following the earnings report, shares declined significantly in after-hours trading. The company anticipates third-quarter sales between 174 billion and 179.5 billion, with operating income expected between 15.5 billion and 20.5 billion. CEO Andy Jassy noted that AWS is experiencing demand exceeding capacity, with a backlog of 195 billion, up 25% year-over-year. Discussions on social media highlighted skepticism regarding future stock performance due to cautious guidance and AWS's growth rate compared to competitors.

MRNA | -6.8% | -717.9M
Moderna Inc | Biotechnology
Moderna Inc reported its second-quarter financial results, revealing revenues of $142 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $113 million. The company recorded a GAAP net loss of $0.8 billion, with a loss per share of $2.13, which was better than the expected loss of $2.97. Despite these results, Moderna revised its 2025 revenue guidance down to a range of $1.5 billion to $2.2 billion, reflecting a $300 million reduction at the high end due to a timing shift in contracted deliveries for the U.K. Additionally, the firm anticipates a revenue split of 40%-50% in the third quarter, with the remainder in the fourth quarter. Social media discussions highlighted a significant legal victory for Moderna, as the UK Court of Appeal confirmed the validity of its EP'949 patent, which was infringed by Pfizer/BioNTech. Moreover, Moderna received European Commission approval for an updated COVID-19 vaccine targeting the SARS-CoV-2 variant LP 8.1.

RKLB | -4.9% | -1.1B
Rocket Lab USA Inc | Aerospace & Defense
Rocket Lab USA Inc is experiencing a decline, moving in tandem with the broader market and the Aerospace & Defense sector. The company announced its fifth mission for the Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space, set to launch from New Zealand on August 5, 2025. This mission, titled "The Harvest Goddess Thrives," aims to deploy the QPS-SAR-12 satellite into a 575km circular Earth orbit, marking Electron's 69th mission and the 11th launch of the year. Notably, Rocket Lab has reported a 100% success rate for all Electron missions in 2025. Additionally, the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report is being closely watched, with expectations of slowing job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, which could influence monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. The Russell 2000 Index has also declined, reflecting broader market sentiment that may be affecting Rocket Lab's price movement.

AMD | -3.2% | -8.9B
Advanced Micro Devices Inc | Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) has seen its stock price decline by 3.2%, aligning with a broader market downturn as major indices, including the Nasdaq 100, also posted losses. This price movement occurs ahead of AMD's Q2 earnings report scheduled for August 5, where analysts project an EPS of $0.4 and revenue of $7.4 billion. Despite a notable increase in stock value this year, driven by optimism surrounding its AI chip capabilities, recent scrutiny over potential overvaluation has emerged. Social media discussions reflect mixed sentiments, noting AMD's recent slip after six consecutive days of gains, while highlighting ongoing bullish trends in capital expenditure among companies focused on AI development. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report is anticipated to further influence market dynamics, with current expectations indicating a modest job growth and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate.

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