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Wednesday, October 15

Noteworthy macro moves today: Nasdaq 100 Index (US) +1.1%. S&P 500 Index (US) +0.8%. Gold +1.0%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Broadcom Inc (AVGO) +2.9%. NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) +2.6%. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) +1.1%. 

Recent market movements have been significantly influenced by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated increasing risks in the U.S. labor market and suggested that further interest rate cuts may be necessary. This has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar as investors anticipate these monetary policy adjustments, contributing to gains across various equity indices globally.

In Europe, political developments are impacting investor sentiment following French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's decision to suspend controversial pension reforms until after upcoming elections. This move is seen as stabilizing for France’s government amid ongoing fiscal concerns and has positively contributed to European stock markets, particularly boosting shares like those of LVMH which reported better-than-expected sales growth.

Economic data releases also played a role; Eurozone industrial production fell 1.2% month-over-month but was less severe than anticipated compared with expectations of a 1.6% drop while Canada experienced its first contraction in wholesale trade over four months at -1.2%. These mixed economic signals continue shaping perceptions around future central bank policies within major economies.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [+2.6%]
Shares of semiconductor stocks have gained following ASML's announcement of a third-quarter earnings beat, reflecting strong demand and operational efficiency in the sector. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments regarding potential interest rate cuts have also supported technology stocks, including those within the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH). Notable movements among SMH's holdings include NVIDIA's rise due to a significant AI infrastructure contract and a partnership with BlackRock and Microsoft for a major data center project. Broadcom's collaboration with OpenAI to design custom AI chips further emphasizes the sector's growth potential. Additionally, social media discussions have highlighted both protective hedging strategies and the correlation between SMH and broader market trends, as evidenced by a recent increase in the Nasdaq 100 Index. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF has risen by 2.6% in pre-market trading.

iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) [+1.3%]
China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September reported a year-over-year decrease of 0.3%, slightly worse than the anticipated decline of 0.2%. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.1%, falling short of expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged at a year-over-year decline of 2.3%, matching estimates but showing improvement from a previous decline of 2.9%. UBS has raised its export growth projection for China in 2025 to 4.5% from an earlier estimate of 1%, following an 8.3% rise in September's exports. In the context of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, President Trump has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, which may affect large-cap Chinese stocks tracked by the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI). Additionally, the Federal Reserve's dovish stance is contributing to a weaker U.S. dollar, potentially benefiting foreign investments in China. The top contributors to FXI's performance included JD and LI, both showing positive returns.

DLTR | +8.3% | +1.9B
Dollar Tree Inc | Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Dollar Tree Inc. shares have surged following the company's positive fiscal 2026 profit forecast, which exceeds analyst estimates. The retailer anticipates earnings per share (EPS) growth in the high teens for fiscal 2026, compared to an expected rise of approximately 14%. Additionally, Dollar Tree projects a compounded annual growth rate in EPS of 12% to 15% from fiscal 2026 to 2028, aided by cost reductions from tariff mitigation and the sale of Family Dollar. The company reaffirmed its third-quarter outlook, reporting a 3.8% increase in comparable store sales quarter-to-date and significant share repurchases totaling 2.8 million shares for $271 million thus far this quarter. These updates have been highlighted on social media, contributing to a notable pre-market increase in share price.

BG | +5.5% | +672.0M
Bunge Global SA | Agricultural Products & Services
Bunge Global SA has announced significant changes to its reporting segments and adjusted its earnings outlook following its merger with Viterra. The company will now report results in four categories: Soybean Processing and Refining, Softseed Processing and Refining, Other Oilseeds Processing and Refining, and Grain Merchandising and Milling. In conjunction with this restructuring, Bunge has lowered its full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share forecast to a range of 7.30 to 7.60, down from a previous estimate of 7.75. This updated outlook incorporates Viterra's results and reflects current market conditions. Additionally, social media discussions reveal notable engagement around Bunge, particularly related to cooking oil themes, as stakeholders anticipate a business update scheduled for today at 9:30 AM ET.

BAC | +4.4% | +18.0B
Bank of America Corp | Diversified Banks
Bank of America reported its third-quarter financial results, revealing a net income of $8.5 billion, or $1.06 per share, significantly surpassing last year's $6.9 billion, or 81 cents per share. This earnings figure exceeded analysts' expectations of $0.95. The bank's net interest income reached $15.2 billion, above estimates of $15.03 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase. Investment banking revenue rose 43% to $2 billion, driven by heightened deal-making activity. Total revenue for the quarter increased by 11% to $28.1 billion, surpassing the anticipated $27.5 billion. Additionally, the provision for credit losses decreased to $1.3 billion from $1.5 billion a year ago. Social media discussions highlighted the bank's EPS of $1.06 and revenue of $28.09 billion, both exceeding expectations, while analysts noted potential cautious commentary regarding future loan defaults or pullbacks.

ABT | -3.2% | -7.1B
Abbott Laboratories | Health Care Equipment
Abbott Laboratories reported third-quarter results with total revenue of $11.37 billion, slightly missing analysts' expectations of $11.40 billion. The diagnostics segment experienced a decline, with sales dropping 6.6% to $2.25 billion, also falling short of estimates. Despite robust demand in the medical devices sector, the overall performance resulted in a nearly 3% drop in shares during premarket trading. Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $1.30, matching expectations. Abbott narrowed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $5.12 to $5.18, down from a prior range of $5.10 to $5.20, while reaffirming its organic sales growth outlook of 7.5% to 8%, excluding COVID-19 testing-related sales.

MS | +4.5% | +11.9B
Morgan Stanley | Investment Banking & Brokerage
Morgan Stanley reported its Q3 earnings this morning, showcasing a net income of $4.61 billion, or $2.80 per share, a significant increase from $3.19 billion, or $1.88 per share, in the same quarter last year. This marks a 45% rise in profit year-over-year. The firm achieved record revenues of $18.22 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $16.69 billion and reflecting an 18% increase from the previous year. Investment banking revenue surged by 44%, reaching $2.11 billion, while trading revenue saw a substantial boost, driven by a 35% increase in equities. Wealth management also excelled, reporting net revenue of $8.23 billion, exceeding estimates.

NVDA | +2.5% | +113.7B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp's stock has risen significantly, reflecting positive developments in its AI infrastructure contracts. Nscale has announced a substantial contract for approximately 200,000 NVIDIA GB300 GPUs for Microsoft, marking a major deal in AI infrastructure. Deliveries are set to commence in 2026 across Europe and the United States. Additionally, NVIDIA's strategic positioning is underscored by its partnership in a $40 billion data center takeover involving BlackRock and Microsoft. Analyst upgrades have also contributed to this upward momentum, with HSBC raising its rating from Hold to Buy and increasing the price target from 200 to 320. Concurrently, the Nasdaq 100 Index has increased, aligning with broader market trends that typically influence technology stocks like NVIDIA.

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