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Monday, November 25

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: US Dollar Index -0.8%. US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.5%. Gold -1.2%. Some of the largest moves among US mega-cap stocks include: UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) +1.5%. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) +1.0%. Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.B) +0.7%.

Recent market movements have been significantly influenced by the appointment of Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary, which has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weakening of the dollar against major currencies. Investors view Bessent's nomination favorably due to his moderate economic policies that are expected to temper more aggressive trade initiatives from President-elect Donald Trump.

Economic data releases also play a crucial role this week, with key indicators such as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index showing disappointing results for October at -0.40, indicating reduced economic growth compared to previous months and falling short of expectations. Additionally, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index decreased unexpectedly in November, reflecting deteriorating business morale amid concerns about ongoing inflationary pressures across Europe.

Looking ahead, significant upcoming reports include personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data on Wednesday along with various other metrics like GDP revisions and jobless claims that could further shape investor sentiment regarding Federal Reserve interest rate decisions moving into December 2024 amidst an already mixed outlook for global economies.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-0.3%]
Bitcoin is currently experiencing volatility as it nears the $100,000 mark, positively influencing MicroStrategy's stock performance due to its significant Bitcoin holdings. Concurrently, Donald Trump's nomination of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary has resulted in a decline in 10-year US Treasury yields, which has bolstered market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. In addition, ZA Bank, Hong Kong's largest digital bank, has launched retail cryptocurrency trading, enabling users to trade major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum using HKD and USD through their app. This development underscores the ongoing importance of the Asian market in the cryptocurrency sector.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) [+1.5%]
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has increased by 1.5% since Friday. Social media discussions highlight that TLT has been attempting to establish an intermediate-term low over the past three weeks, but has faced challenges due to a rising Dollar, which may lead to continued lower lows as the next FOMC meeting approaches. Recent posts also indicate a focus on upcoming events related to Nvidia and Treasury bonds, hinting at a potentially bullish outlook for TLT by the end of 2024. Notably, the US 2-year/10-year yield spread has reinverted for the first time since early September, which could influence TLT's performance. Additionally, the nomination of Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary by President-elect Donald Trump has coincided with a decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields, positively affecting the daily return of the US 30Y Treasury Bond.

ZM | +2.8% | +772.8M
Zoom Video Communications Inc | Application Software
Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM) has experienced a price increase recently, with social media discussions highlighting a potential shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. Analysts, including Carter Worth, suggest that ZM is nearing the end of a bottoming-out process, with projections indicating a possible movement towards the $95 level. Anticipation surrounding the upcoming earnings report has led options traders to express optimism about the stock's performance post-announcement. Heavy trading volume was noted in recent posts, reinforcing the favorable sentiment towards ZM. Additionally, a weekly chart analysis shared on social media supports a bullish outlook ahead of the earnings release, further indicating increased interest among traders in a significant upward movement following the report scheduled for next week.

HOOD | +7.1% | +2.5B
Robinhood Markets Inc | Investment Banking & Brokerage
Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD) has experienced a notable upgrade from Morgan Stanley, which has raised its rating from Equalweight to Overweight and set a new price target of 55, up from 24. This news has been widely circulated on social media, contributing to a premarket increase of approximately 4% in HOOD's stock price, surpassing its IPO price of 38 from over three years ago. Discussions also highlight optimism regarding revenue growth following recent elections, attributed to a rise in retail trading and enhanced support for cryptocurrencies. Additionally, social media posts reflect positive sentiment around HOOD's performance, with users expressing excitement about potential gains and referencing significant increases associated with the stock. Comparisons with other financial services, such as SOFI, have also emerged in these conversations.

RKLB | +10.0%| +1.3B
Rocket Lab USA Inc | Aerospace & Defense
Rocket Lab USA Inc (RKLB) has recently achieved significant milestones, including the successful launch of its 56th Electron mission, which deployed five satellites for the French Internet-of-Things company Kineis from Mahia, New Zealand. This launch set a new company record for the fastest turnaround, occurring just 21 hours and 55 minutes after a previous mission. Following these accomplishments, RKLB shares increased by approximately 16% in pre-market trading. Additionally, the U.S. government awarded Rocket Lab's SolAero Technologies $23.9 million to enhance production of space-grade solar cells, supporting projects such as NASA's Artemis missions. To date, Rocket Lab has deployed a total of 203 satellites, reinforcing its position in the small launch vehicle market.

SNOW | +3.7%| +2.2B
Snowflake Inc. | Internet Services & Infrastructure
Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) is experiencing a notable price increase, aligning with a broader upward movement in the Internet Services & Infrastructure sub-sector. Recently, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives upgraded SNOW to an Outperform rating with a price target of 190, contributing to positive market sentiment. Social media discussions reflect enthusiasm about a significant increase in SNOW's stock over the past week following earnings reports. Users are particularly focused on maintaining a price above 160, with some expressing interest in buying if it retraces to around 140. The overall analyst sentiment remains moderately positive, with a majority of buy ratings despite mixed coverage from various brokerages.

ESTC | +3.7% | +418.6M
Elastic NV | Application Software
Elastic NV (ESTC) has seen a price increase of 3.7% in pre-market trading following a series of notable developments. On November 25, 2024, Wedbush upgraded the stock to an Outperform rating from Neutral, with a price target of 135. This follows a significant surge of approximately 15% in share price on November 22, after the company reported fiscal Q2 earnings of 59 cents per share on revenue of 365 million, surpassing Wall Street expectations of 38 cents per share on revenue of 357 million. Additionally, discussions on social media highlighted a collaboration involving Dell's AI Factory and NVIDIA utilizing Elastic's Elasticsearch vector database, emphasizing its importance in generative AI applications. These factors collectively contribute to the recent uptick in Elastic's stock price.

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