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Wednesday, October 1

Noteworthy macro moves today: US 2Y Treasury Bond +0.1%. Bitcoin +2.1%. Ethereum +3.5%. 

The U.S. government officially entered a shutdown on October 1, following Congress's failure to pass a funding bill. This event has introduced significant uncertainty into the markets, particularly affecting expectations for upcoming economic data releases such as the Nonfarm Payrolls report and other key indicators that are now likely delayed due to halted operations at federal agencies.

In recent economic data from September, private sector employment in the U.S. fell by 32,000 jobs against forecasts of an increase of 50,000 positions based on ADP data; this decline reflects caution among employers despite previous strong growth signals earlier in Q2. Additionally, Eurozone inflation rose slightly above target levels at 2.2%, driven mainly by slower declines in energy costs and stable core inflation figures which may influence European Central Bank policy moving forward.

Market reactions have been notable: gold prices surged to record highs amid safe-haven demand linked with both geopolitical tensions and domestic uncertainties stemming from the shutdown while major equity indices showed mixed performance—European stocks gained ground whereas U.S futures pointed lower ahead of critical manufacturing PMI reports expected later today amidst these developments.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [+2.1%]
Bitcoin has increased by 2.1% since Tuesday, amid a backdrop of significant developments. The U.S. federal government has shut down, raising uncertainty in financial markets and potentially delaying key economic data releases. In social media discussions, notable activity includes Metaplanet's acquisition of 5,268 BTC for approximately $623 million, elevating their total holdings to 30,823 BTC and making them the fourth-largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder. Their treasury is now valued at $3.6 billion, based on an average price of $108,000 per BTC. Conversations highlight a bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, with expectations of substantial gains as the market resets. Additionally, Ethereum has increased by 3.66%, reflecting a strong correlation with Bitcoin's recent price movement.

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) [+1.0%]
The iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) has seen a price increase of 1.0% in pre-market trading. The U.K. Nationwide House Price Index reported a year-over-year rise of 2.2% for September, exceeding expectations and the previous month’s figure. Month-over-month, the index also increased, surpassing forecasts. Meanwhile, the U.K. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index remained stable, although the Economic Confidence Index fell significantly to its lowest level since July 2016, driven by concerns over rising employment costs. Additionally, the U.S. government shutdown has raised uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, potentially influencing market dynamics relevant to British companies tracked by EWU. The movement in GBP/USD contributed positively to the ETF's performance, alongside strong returns from key holdings such as AstraZeneca, which received FDA acceptance for a breast cancer treatment application.

AES | +11.1% | +1.2B
AES Corp | Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
AES Corp shares surged by over 11% in premarket trading following reports that BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners is in advanced discussions to acquire the company for approximately $38 billion, inclusive of debt. An agreement could be finalized as soon as this week, reflecting heightened interest in the utility sector amid increasing power demand. AES's market capitalization is around $9.37 billion, based on its recent closing price of $13.16. The company has shown resilience, exceeding profit expectations in the second quarter and benefiting from growth in its renewable energy division. Social media discussions have echoed this sentiment, with users noting significant interest surrounding the potential acquisition.

NKE | +4.5% | +5.0B
Nike Inc | Footwear
Nike Inc. reported its fiscal Q1 results, revealing earnings per share of 0.49, significantly exceeding the estimate of 0.27, alongside revenues of 11.72 billion, surpassing expectations of 10.99 billion. North American revenues increased by 4%, while EMEA revenues rose by 6%. In contrast, Greater China experienced a decline of 9%. The gross margin decreased to 42.2%, influenced by higher discounts and tariffs. CEO Elliott Hill highlighted strong performance in the running segment, with growth exceeding 20%. Despite these gains, the company anticipates a slight decline in Q2 revenue and expects gross margins to decrease by 300 to 375 basis points due to ongoing tariff pressures. Social media discussions reflected optimism regarding the earnings report, noting a net income of 727 million compared to an expected 396.8 million, while concerns lingered about challenges in the Chinese market.

ASTS | +8.5% | +1.2B
AST SpaceMobile Inc | Alternative Carriers
AST SpaceMobile Inc. reported that its next-generation satellite, BlueBird 6, has completed final assembly and testing, with plans to transport it to India on October 12. The company is also preparing to ship BlueBird 7 to Cape Canaveral in October, while BlueBirds 8 through 16 are in production, with launches expected every one to two months through 2025 and 2026. AST SpaceMobile aims to have 45-60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026. Following this announcement, the stock surged significantly in after-hours trading. Additionally, Barclays upgraded its price target for AST SpaceMobile from 37 to 60, reiterating an overweight rating. Social media discussions highlighted the readiness of BlueBirds and previous stock performance, including a notable increase following earlier announcements. The stock has increased by 8.5% since Tuesday.

LAC | +34.2% | +571.0M
Lithium Americas Corp | Diversified Metals & Mining
The U.S. Department of Energy has confirmed its acquisition of a 5% equity stake in Lithium Americas Corp and the Thacker Pass lithium project, as announced by Energy Secretary Chris Wright. This strategic move aims to enhance domestic lithium production and reduce reliance on foreign sources. In conjunction with this, the Department will defer $182 million of debt service over the first five years of a $2.26 billion loan agreement supporting the project. The DOE will also receive warrants to purchase common shares and non-voting interests at a nominal price. Following these developments, Lithium Americas' stock price rose significantly in after-hours trading. Social media discussions have highlighted this government stake and ongoing negotiations for a $2.3 billion federal loan involving both Lithium Americas and General Motors, contributing to a notable increase in trading activity and short interest for the company

CTVA | -2.3% | -1.0B
Corteva Inc | Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Corteva Inc. announced plans to separate into two independent public companies, expected to be completed in the second half of 2026. The Crop Protection business will retain the Corteva name and is projected to generate $7.8 billion in net sales for 2025. The Seed business, referred to as SpinCo, is expected to achieve approximately $9.9 billion in sales in the same year. Chuck Magro will lead SpinCo, while Greg Page will chair the new Corteva. The transaction aims to qualify as a tax-free spin-off for U.S. shareholders, pending final board approval. Additionally, at 6:55 AM NY, Corteva reaffirmed its EPS guidance for FY2025 to between $3.0 and $3.2, along with a revenue guidance of $17.6 billion to $17.8 billion for the same period.

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