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Monday, March 24

Noteworthy macro moves today: S&P 500 Index (US) +1.2%. Nasdaq 100 Index (US) +1.6%. Ethereum +3.8%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Tesla Inc (TSLA) +3.9%. Meta Platforms Inc (META) +2.7%. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) +2.1%. 

Recent market movements are significantly influenced by the evolving trade policies of the U.S. administration, particularly regarding upcoming tariffs set to be announced on April 2. Reports indicate that these tariffs may be more targeted than initially feared, which has contributed to a positive shift in investor sentiment and led major stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures to rise sharply.

In addition, economic data releases have shown mixed signals across key global economies. Germany's HCOB Services PMI fell below expectations at 50.2 for March while its Manufacturing PMI improved slightly but still indicated contraction with a reading of 48.3; this reflects ongoing challenges within both sectors amid cautious consumer spending due to geopolitical uncertainties.

Furthermore, inflation concerns remain prevalent as markets await critical reports such as February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index from the U.S., alongside other significant indicators including durable goods orders and consumer confidence metrics later this week—these will provide further insights into how businesses are responding amidst fluctuating economic conditions globally.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) [+3.9%]
Ethereum (ETH/USD) has increased today, bolstered by the Federal Reserve's shift from quantitative tightening to easing for treasuries, which has positively influenced market sentiment. Bitcoin has also surged past $86,000, reflecting favorable reactions to expectations of looser monetary policy and potential tariffs announced by President Trump. Social media discussions highlight that BlackRock's BUIDL Fund has acquired approximately $1.145 billion in Ethereum. Additionally, the amount of ETH held on centralized exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since November 2015, now at 8.97 million tokens, which may precede upward price movement. Binance reportedly purchased at least $250 million worth of ETH, alongside BTC and SOL. The overall positive momentum in cryptocurrency markets is further evidenced by Bitcoin's increase of 1.84%, aligning with Ethereum's performance amid rising optimism.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) [+1.2%]
In pre-market trading, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) increased by 1.07%, reaching a price of 5779. This movement aligns with rising futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The previous week saw the S&P 500 gain 0.5%, while the Nasdaq and Dow rose by 0.17% and 1.2%, respectively. The Levkovich index, as reported by Citi, transitioned from euphoria to neutral, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. Social media discussions highlighted that SPY and QQQ managed to hold their previous week's lows for the first time since reaching all-time highs, indicating potential stabilization. Notably, significant dark pool orders for SPY were observed on March 23rd, amid bullish sentiment regarding upcoming business developments. Concurrently, the S&P 500 Index increased by 1.2% during market hours on Monday, coinciding with President Trump's announcement regarding reciprocal tariffs and positive economic data from Australia.

TSLA | +3.9% | +31.3B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc is experiencing a notable price increase, moving higher alongside the broader market rally. The S&P 500 Index has risen, which may be influencing Tesla's upward movement. Recent social media activity reveals substantial retail investment, with over $8 billion poured into Tesla shares in just two weeks, marking the largest inflow in the company's history. Despite this, Tesla faces challenges, including a year-to-date stock decline attributed to CEO Elon Musk's political associations and concerns about vehicle recalls and autonomous technology. Additionally, the company has been excluded from electric vehicle rebate programs in several Canadian provinces. Analysts have cut 2025 earnings estimates significantly, citing disappointing sales figures in key markets. Concurrently, discussions around Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology suggest stagnation and a potential shift towards a geo-fenced ride-hailing service.

AZEK | +23.5% | +1.7B
Azek Company Inc | Building Products
Azek Company Inc. shares surged following the announcement that James Hardie Industries will acquire the company in a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately $8.75 billion. Under the terms, AZEK shareholders will receive $26.45 in cash and 1.0340 ordinary shares of James Hardie for each share of AZEK, totaling about $56.88 per share, representing a substantial premium over AZEK's last closing price. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2025, pending regulatory approvals. James Hardie anticipates that the acquisition will enhance profitability and cash flow through operational synergies, with an expected annual increase of at least $350 million in adjusted EBITDA when fully realized. Additionally, Azek reaffirmed their revenue guidance for FY2025 between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion. Social media conversations have also indicated excitement around potential mergers involving Azek, suggesting a resurgence of "Merger Monday."

BA | +2.2% | +2.4B
Boeing Co | Aerospace & Defense
Boeing Co's stock has increased in tandem with the broader market, which is experiencing significant upward movement. The company has secured a substantial U.S. Air Force contract valued at $20 billion for the design and delivery of its next-generation fighter aircraft, the F-47, surpassing Lockheed Martin's bid. This contract could generate orders worth hundreds of billions over its lifecycle. Additionally, Boeing is collaborating with Airbus to explore new materials for next-generation narrow-body jets, aiming to boost production output to nearly 100 jets per month for each company. Social media discussions reflect strong sentiments regarding Boeing's perceived importance in the American economy, with some users expressing belief in the company's potential rebound, while the current price is noted at 170. The Dow Jones Index has also increased, reflecting broader market trends that may be influencing Boeing's recent price change.

LMT | -2.3% | -2.4B
Lockheed Martin Corp | Aerospace & Defense
Lockheed Martin Corp experienced a notable decline in its stock price, primarily due to a downgrade by Melius, which shifted its recommendation to "hold." This downgrade coincided with a premarket decline of approximately 1.5%, as reported by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The company is also grappling with the repercussions of losing a significant U.S. Air Force contract for the Next Generation Air Dominance program, valued at $20 billion, to Boeing, which will replace Lockheed's F-22 Raptor. This loss adds to a series of setbacks for Lockheed in securing major defense contracts against its competitors. Social media discussions have further highlighted the competitive dynamics in the defense sector, particularly following reports that President Trump selected Boeing for the next-generation fighter jet contract, which caused Lockheed's stock to drop significantly in the past.

CCL | +3.1% | +835.8M
Carnival Corp | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Carnival Corporation has experienced a price increase, coinciding with broader market gains. The S&P 500 Index has risen, reflecting positive market sentiment. Recent assessments from Barclays highlight the resilience of cruise fundamentals, supporting an overweight position on Carnival's stock. Stifel described the current risk/reward profile as compelling, suggesting favorable conditions for investors. In terms of price targets, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its 12-month estimate for Carnival down to 32 while maintaining a Buy rating. Loop Capital has revised its target to 21, retaining a Hold rating, while Stifel has slightly increased its target to 31 from 30. Additionally, social media discussions noted that Carnival operates Half Moon Cay, a private island in the Bahamas for cruise guests.

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