Markets Mixed as U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Ease Oil Concerns | MarketReader Minute

Global stocks trade unevenly as U.S.-Iran negotiations boost European sentiment, UK retail data surprises positively, and Treasury yields decline amid easing inflation expectations.

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Tuesday, May 26

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) +3.1%. USD/TRY +0.4%. A50 Index (China) +2.1%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) +1.3%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) -1.1%. Visa Inc (V) -0.6%.

Global equity markets are trading mixed following recent developments in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, which have influenced oil prices and market sentiment. Oil prices have surged by over 3%, reflecting optimism about a potential peace deal that could stabilize energy supplies, while U.S. equity indices are lower as investors remain cautious amid geopolitical tensions.

In the U.S., the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, released this morning, rose to +0.14 for April, significantly above expectations of -0.03, indicating stronger economic momentum driven by production-related indicators. This positive data has contributed to a shift in market sentiment, although concerns about inflation and ongoing geopolitical risks persist.

Meanwhile, Canadian manufacturing sales data released today showed a projected increase of 4.6% month-over-month for April, driven by stronger sales in petroleum and coal products. This aligns with broader optimism regarding economic recovery amid easing inflationary pressures linked to falling oil prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations.

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) [+6.6%]
The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF has advanced sharply in pre-market trading, benefiting from a broader global rally in risk assets. This momentum has been fueled by declining oil prices amid optimism regarding a potential Iran deal. The ETF remains a top performer this year, with a significant year-to-date gain of 87.2%. Positive trends in Asian markets, particularly a notable jump in Japan's Nikkei 225, have also contributed to the upward movement. Social media discussions highlight EWY's breakout from a multi-month base and its upward momentum, with references to semiconductor stocks like SK Hynix. Additionally, there are indications of positive sentiment surrounding the ETF, with claims of it reaching a new record high during the morning session.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [-3.7%]
A significant decline in crude oil prices is driving the drop in United States Oil Fund LP shares. Reports indicate that crude prices fell sharply, dropping around 7% after President Trump suggested progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could lead to a normalization of oil supply dynamics. This sentiment was reinforced by additional articles noting oil futures trading below $100 a barrel. The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has further contributed to the downward pressure on USO. Earlier in the session, shares rebounded from a session low but remain lower since Friday's close, diverging from the recent trend of higher daily closes.

MOD | +16.9% | +2.7B
Modine Manufacturing Co | Automotive Parts & Equipment

Modine Manufacturing Co's stock surged in pre-market trading following the announcement of a significant long-term capacity agreement valued at over $4 billion with a strategic data center customer for its Airedale cooling solutions. This deal guarantees supply capacity for advanced cooling products between 2027 and 2029 and includes an upfront cash payment of $165 million to support necessary capacity investments. The agreement is viewed as a crucial advancement in Modine's growth strategy within its Data Centers segment, reinforcing its reputation as a leader in mission-critical cooling solutions. As a result, shares are sharply higher since Friday's close, reflecting strong bullish momentum ahead of the market open.

BP | -5.9% | -40.6B
BP PLC | Integrated Oil & Gas

BP PLC announced the immediate removal of Albert Manifold as Chair and Director, appointing Ian Tyler as Interim Chair. This leadership change has negatively impacted investor sentiment, contributing to a decline in BP's stock price, which fell to a 10-week low of 530.90 GBp. Additionally, BP faces a significant lawsuit over allegations of environmental violations in Kenya, further complicating its operational outlook. Social media discussions have highlighted concerns regarding governance standards and the implications of Manifold's ousting, as he was seen as pivotal to the company's recent turnaround efforts. In pre-market hours, BP shares are sharply lower since Friday's close, continuing a trend of declining prices amid these developments.

VSAT | +11.5% | +1.2B
Viasat Inc | Communications Equipment

Viasat Inc shares are advancing in pre-market trading following the announcement of a significant $437.7 million contract with the Department of War for space vehicle procurement supporting the Protected Tactical Satellite-Global program, expected to be completed by March 2029. This development has coincided with increased investor interest in space-related stocks and bullish retail sentiment, evidenced by heightened trading volumes. The company is also set to report its fourth-quarter and fiscal year 2026 financial results on May 28, 2026, with an earnings per share estimate of $0.28, up from a prior estimate of -$0.02, and projected revenue of $1.2 billion, an increase from $1.1 billion previously.

AZO | -5.2% | -2.9B
Autozone Inc | Automotive Retail

AutoZone is set to release its third-quarter earnings today, with preliminary reports indicating earnings per share of $38.07, surpassing the expected $36.15. Revenue came in at $4.84 billion, slightly below the forecast of $4.9 billion. Despite these results, shares are sharply lower in pre-market trading, reflecting investor caution following a 0.9% decline at Friday's close. This sentiment is echoed on social media, where discussions highlight the mixed earnings data and suggest apprehension ahead of the announcement. Early in the session, AutoZone shares reached a low of -6.49%, contributing to a notable decline since Friday's close.

ESLT |+9.4% | +3.5B
Elbit Systems Ltd |Aerospace & Defense

Elbit Systems Ltd reported strong first-quarter results, with revenues rising to $2.19 billion from $1.90 billion year-over-year and net income increasing significantly to $160.79 million compared to $10.08 million in the prior year. The company also secured a substantial $1.4 billion contract for military modernization from a European customer, contributing to a record backlog now totaling $30.2 billion. This surge in demand is attributed to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, leading to increased orders from Israel’s Ministry of Defense. Additionally, Elbit declared a quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share, payable on July 6. Following these announcements, shares are trading sharply higher in pre-market hours.

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