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Wednesday, December 31

Noteworthy macro moves today: USD/CNH -0.2%. Platinum -6.6%. Silver -5.2%.

Global equity markets are trading mixed as investors react to recent economic data releases and ongoing concerns about Federal Reserve policy. The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 199,000 for the week ending December 27, significantly lower than the anticipated rise to around 220,000 claims. This indicates resilience in the labor market and may influence expectations for future monetary policy.

In addition to jobless claims data, continuing claims also dropped to a three-month low of 1,866 thousand. This decline suggests easing labor market pressures and may bolster sentiment regarding economic stability heading into the new year, despite mixed signals from other indicators such as inflation and employment costs.

Meanwhile, China's manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery, with the NBS Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1 in December from November's reading of below neutral. This improvement indicates a return to growth after several months of contraction and has positively contributed to market sentiment regarding China's economic outlook as it heads into early January.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) [-5.1%]
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has experienced a notable decline of 5.7%. Recent discussions on social media reveal that margin requirements for silver have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange raising silver margins to 20%. The CME Group has also hiked margins for the second time this week. In related market activity, platinum prices have dropped significantly, which may be influencing SLV's movement. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are negatively affecting market sentiment towards precious metals. A post highlighted that while China has not officially banned silver exports, new policies have elevated silver's status to a strategic material, potentially affecting supply dynamics. Despite ongoing discussions about a physical shortage, users noted substantial amounts of silver remain in the ground.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+0.9%]
Crude inventories in the United States increased by 1.7 million barrels for the week ending December 26, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API). This increase is lower than the previous week's build of 2.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories also rose significantly, by 6.2 million barrels. Concurrently, discussions on social media highlighted concerns about oversupply in the oil market, with one user expressing skepticism regarding an article that compared the performance of silver and oil prices. The user noted that "Silver Vaults are empty" while referencing a warning sign for investors related to silver’s surge relative to oil. These developments may influence perceptions of supply and demand dynamics within the oil sector, impacting entities such as United States Oil Fund LP.

CORT | -36.8% | -1.7B
Corcept Therapeutics Inc | Pharmaceuticals
Corcept Therapeutics Inc. has seen a significant decline in its stock price following the issuance of a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA regarding its New Drug Application for relacorilant, intended to treat hypertension secondary to hypercortisolism. The FDA noted that although the pivotal GRACE trial met its primary endpoint, additional evidence of effectiveness is necessary to evaluate the benefit-risk profile favorably. This announcement, made approximately 23 hours ago, triggered a sharp drop in premarket trading, which indicated an initial decrease before shares were halted. Trading resumed shortly after the announcement, with continued downward pressure on the stock. Social media discussions reflect that the FDA's stance necessitates further evidence from Corcept to support a favorable assessment of relacorilant.

NKE | +2.9% | +2.8B
Nike Inc | Footwear
Nike Inc's stock has risen notably, influenced by significant activity within the Footwear sub-sector. The increase follows substantial insider purchases, including CEO Elliott Hill acquiring 16,388 shares at an average price of 61.10, totaling approximately $1 million. This transaction contributed to a rise in pre-market trading. Additionally, board member Tim Cook purchased 50,000 shares for about $2.95 million. The trend of insider buying has garnered attention amid Nike's ongoing turnaround efforts and mixed regional performance trends. Social media discussions have highlighted these transactions, interpreting them as a show of confidence from insiders. Notably, Nike is currently trading below its long-term moving average, which some commentators view as potentially oversold for the company.

AXSM | +6.6% | +496.7M
Axsome Therapeutics Inc | Pharmaceuticals
Axsome Therapeutics Inc. has seen a notable price increase following recent developments regarding its drug applications. The company received important feedback from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its New Drug Application for AXS-12, a treatment for cataplexy in narcolepsy patients. The FDA confirmed that Axsome's regulatory data package is adequate for submission, scheduled for January 2026. Additionally, the FDA has accepted and prioritized the review of Axsome's Supplemental New Drug Application for AXS-05, targeting agitation associated with Alzheimer's disease, with a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date set for April 30, 2026. This information has been actively discussed on social media, contributing to the stock's upward movement.

TSM | +1.2% | +91.8B
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd | Semiconductors
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) has seen its stock price increase by 1.2% since Tuesday. Nvidia has engaged TSM to ramp up production of its H200 artificial intelligence chips, responding to rising demand from Chinese technology firms. Reports indicate that over 2 million H200 chips have been ordered for delivery in 2026, while Nvidia's current inventory is approximately 700,000 units. Additionally, TSMC is expediting the construction of its first 1.4nm fab in Taichung, Taiwan, with pilot production expected by the end of 2027 and mass production in 2028. There is also high demand for TSMC's 2nm production, particularly from clients like Apple and AMD, leading to expansions at multiple plants in Taiwan and the US.

ASTS | +0.8% | +163.6M
AST SpaceMobile Inc | Alternative Carriers
AST SpaceMobile Inc. shares are experiencing upward momentum following the successful orbital launch of its BlueBird 6 spacecraft, now recognized as the largest commercial communications array in low Earth orbit. This spacecraft, significantly larger than previous models, can deliver peak data rates of up to 120 Mbps directly to standard smartphones. The company plans to launch an additional 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026, reflecting a robust expansion strategy. AST SpaceMobile has established agreements with over 50 mobile network operators globally. Despite reporting a loss in the third quarter, the company reaffirmed its revenue guidance for the second half of 2025. On social media, discussions highlight the successful launch of the first Block 2 BlueBird and completion of early orbit phase operations, along with speculation regarding adjustments to BlueBird 7's height and inclination.

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