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Wednesday, January 28

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold +1.6%. US Dollar Index +0.6%. EUR/USD -0.5%.

Global equity markets are trading mixed as investors await the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement later today. Expectations are that rates will remain unchanged amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about a potential government shutdown affecting market sentiment.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan's minutes from its December meeting indicated cautious optimism regarding economic recovery, although inflation pressures persist, which may influence future rate hikes if growth outlooks hold steady. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in Germany improved slightly to -24.1 in January from -26.9 in December, surpassing expectations and reflecting easing financial pressures on households.

Additionally, gold prices have surged by approximately 1.6%, reaching new highs as geopolitical tensions escalate, particularly concerning U.S.-Iran relations. The U.S. dollar index has increased by about 0.6%. This environment of rising commodity prices contrasts with declines in European equity indices as traders remain cautious ahead of central bank announcements and assess their implications for economic stability moving forward.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [+2.6%]
In the pre-market session, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has experienced a notable increase of 2.65%. This rise is linked to positive sentiment in the technology sector ahead of major earnings reports from companies such as Microsoft and Apple. Intel's shares have also surged nearly 6% following news of potential manufacturing partnerships with Nvidia and Apple, further enhancing the outlook for semiconductor investments. Social media discussions have highlighted Nvidia's stock surpassing 190, prompting speculation about a weekly extension for SMH and QQQ. Additionally, China has approved the import of Nvidia's H200 AI chips for several major tech firms, adding to the positive sentiment. The top contributors to SMH's performance include Nvidia, Texas Instruments, Micron Technology, Applied Materials, and Lam Research, all showing increased returns.

iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) [-1.4%]
The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) has experienced a decline of 1.5% during the pre-market session. This movement coincides with the Bank of Japan's recent decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.75% due to ongoing inflation concerns. The Nikkei index has opened significantly lower, affected by weakness in major sectors such as exporters and financial stocks. Notably, the performance of EWJ has also been impacted by the USD/JPY exchange rate, contributing negatively to its overall performance. Among its holdings, significant declines were observed in Toyota Motor Corporation, Sony, Nintendo, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, and Honda Motor Co., all contributing to the ETF's downward movement. Additionally, the Dow Jones Index has decreased slightly, reflecting broader market sentiment that may be influencing EWJ's performance.

SBUX | +7.3% | +8.5B
Starbucks Corp | Restaurants
Starbucks Corp. reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results, revealing total net revenues of $9.915 billion, an increase from $9.398 billion year-over-year. The adjusted earnings per share were $0.56, slightly below the consensus estimate of $0.59. Global comparable store sales rose by 4%, driven by a 3% increase in transactions and a 1% rise in average ticket size. The company plans to open 600 to 650 new coffeehouses globally and declared a cash dividend of $0.62 per share, payable on February 27, 2026. The stock experienced a pre-market increase of approximately 7% following these announcements, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding its recent performance and future outlook. Notably, this marks the first sales growth in the U.S. in two years, attributed to successful holiday promotions and strategic management initiatives under CEO Brian Niccol.

APH | -9.3% | -8.5B
Amphenol Corp | Electronic Components
Amphenol Corp's shares have fallen sharply in pre-market trading, down approximately 15%, following the release of its fourth-quarter financial results. The company reported record revenue of $6.439 billion and an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.97, both surpassing analyst expectations. Despite this, the stock reacted negatively, even as profitability increased, with adjusted operating margins of 27.5% for the quarter and 26.2% for the full year. For the first quarter, Amphenol guided revenues between $6.9 billion and $7 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of $6.79 billion. Social media discussions highlighted the positive earnings report, noting a significant year-over-year revenue increase of 49.1%. Additionally, a tax provision in China has been mentioned as a contributing factor to the stock's decline.

DHR | -4.7% | -7.9B
Danaher Corp | Life Sciences Tools & Services
Danaher Corp reported its Q4 2025 earnings, revealing adjusted EPS of 2.23, exceeding the estimate of 2.15, alongside revenue of 6.84 billion, slightly above the consensus of 6.81 billion. Despite a year-over-year revenue growth of 4.5%, the company missed operating revenue expectations, which were projected at 6.81 billion but came in at 6.80 billion. For Q1 2026, Danaher anticipates non-GAAP core revenue growth in the low-single-digit percentage range. The adjusted EPS guidance for the full year 2026 is set between 8.35 and 8.50, aligning closely with analyst expectations of 8.42. Segment performance included diagnostics revenue matching expectations at 2.72 billion, with biotechnology and life sciences revenues also meeting their respective estimates. Following the earnings announcement, the stock experienced a decline of 4.7%.

STX | +8.2% | +6.9B
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC reported strong second-quarter fiscal 2026 results, achieving adjusted earnings per share of 3.11, which exceeded the consensus estimate of 2.81. Revenue reached 2.83 billion, surpassing expectations of 2.73 billion. The company attributed its performance to robust operational execution and strong demand from data centers, particularly driven by AI applications. For the third quarter, Seagate anticipates revenue between 2.90 billion and 3.00 billion, with adjusted earnings per share projected at 3.40, plus or minus 0.20. Analysts have responded positively, raising their price targets for the stock to a range of 450 to 500. Social media discussions highlight the strong institutional buying activity, with institutions increasing their holdings by over 46% as of December 31, 2025, alongside ongoing demand for data storage solutions. The CEO noted that near-line capacity is fully allocated through 2026, with orders expected to be accepted for 2027.

TXN | +6.9% | +13.1B
Texas Instruments Inc | Semiconductors
Texas Instruments reported its fourth-quarter results for 2025, revealing revenue of $4.42 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, albeit slightly below analyst expectations of $4.44 billion. Earnings per share were $1.27, missing the consensus estimate of $1.30. The company provided an optimistic outlook for the first quarter of 2026, projecting revenue between $4.32 billion and $4.68 billion and earnings per share ranging from $1.22 to $1.48, which surpasses analyst estimates. Notably, the CEO highlighted a remarkable 70% growth in the data center segment for Q4, with data center revenue for 2025 reaching $1.5 billion, reflecting a 64% year-over-year increase. Following these announcements, Texas Instruments' shares experienced a significant rise in after-hours trading, reportedly increasing by approximately 8%.

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