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Monday, July 28

Noteworthy macro moves today: US Dollar Index +0.5%. Oil (WTI) +1.9%. 

The U.S. and European Union have reached a significant trade agreement, establishing a 15% tariff on EU imports to the U.S., down from previously threatened rates of up to 30%. This deal includes commitments for substantial investments in the American economy by the EU, totaling $600 billion alongside energy purchases worth $750 billion. The market has reacted positively to this development, with stock futures indicating gains as investor sentiment improves amid reduced fears of escalating trade tensions.

In addition to these developments, markets are closely monitoring upcoming economic data releases and central bank decisions scheduled for later this week. Notably, investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate policy during their meeting on July 29-30 while also focusing on key indicators such as GDP growth figures and employment statistics expected shortly thereafter.

Lastly, crude oil prices have seen an uptick following news surrounding geopolitical dynamics related to supply constraints influenced by ongoing negotiations between major economies like Russia regarding gasoline exports. As global demand expectations shift—both directly and indirectly—from recent agreements among trading partners including Japan's involvement in similar discussions with other nations like China or Indonesia. This could further impact commodity pricing trends moving forward into August.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) [+0.7%, +249.2M]
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has seen a price increase of 0.7% since Friday. A new trade agreement between the U.S. and European Union, effective August 1, imposes a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the U.S. and includes commitments for $750 billion in American energy product purchases over three years. This development is anticipated to enhance demand for U.S. energy supplies. Concurrently, Brent crude oil prices have risen by 1.91%, potentially influencing XLE's performance. The top contributors to XLE's recent performance include ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Schlumberger, and OneMain Financial, all showing positive returns. Notably, significant companies Chevron and ExxonMobil are set to report earnings this week, which may further impact the sector's movement around the $88 level.

EUR/USD (EUR/USD) [-0.7%]
The EUR/USD pair is currently down significantly as the market reacts to a newly announced trade agreement between the United States and the European Union. This agreement imposes a 15% tariff on most EU exports while promising substantial investments in U.S. energy sectors, bolstering the US Dollar against the Euro. Concerns over potential inflation due to higher tariffs and ongoing political tensions related to economic policies under President Trump are also influencing market dynamics. Additionally, discussions on social media highlight Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's potential actions regarding trade deals, with a focus on his pressures from Trump related to interest rate cuts.

NICE | +6.7% | +731.3M
Nice Ltd | Application Software
Nice Ltd has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Cognigy, a prominent player in conversational and agentic AI, for approximately 955 million. This acquisition aims to enhance Nice's CXone Mpower platform by integrating Cognigy's AI capabilities, thereby facilitating the adoption of AI-driven customer service across multiple channels. The deal includes a $50 million time-bound holdback, which consists of $25 million in cash and 158,000 American Depositary Shares. It has received unanimous approval from Nice's Board of Directors and will be financed with existing funds. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals, and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025. Cognigy is projected to achieve around 80% annual recurring revenue growth in 2026, serving over 1,000 brands globally.

LNG | +3.7% | +2.0B
Cheniere Energy Inc | Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Cheniere Energy Inc., the largest LNG producer in the U.S., reported substantial financial growth, with Q1 2025 revenue rising significantly compared to Q1 2024. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA also increased during this period. The company’s LNG exports grew year-over-year, and construction has commenced for two additional trains at the Corpus Christi complex, expected to enhance capacity. Fitch Ratings upgraded Cheniere from BBB to BBB-, improving its borrowing capacity. Additionally, the company is diversifying its gas supply through a new agreement with Canadian Natural Resources, which is anticipated to bolster revenue resilience. On social media, Cheniere is being highlighted as a primary beneficiary of a recent U.S.-EU trade agreement, which could unlock substantial investments and energy exports, reinforcing positive sentiment surrounding the company.

ATHE | -19.8% | -5.4B
Alterity Therapeutics Ltd | Biotechnology
Alterity Therapeutics Ltd is experiencing a significant decline, moving in tandem with the broader Biotechnology sector. The company recently reported topline data from its open-label Phase 2 ATH434-202 clinical trial, which involved ten patients with multiple system atrophy (MSA). Over a 12-month treatment period, the trial indicated that disease progression, as measured by the Modified Unified MSA Rating Scale Part I, was reduced by approximately half compared to historical controls. Additionally, 30% of participants maintained stable neurological symptoms, and the drug also stabilized symptoms related to orthostatic hypotension. Neuroimaging results showed that ATH434 slowed brain atrophy in areas affected by MSA and reduced iron accumulation in specific brain regions. These findings support the advancement of the ATH434 program in MSA treatment.

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