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Friday, June 20

Noteworthy macro moves today: S&P 500 Index (US) +1.3%. Nasdaq 100 Index (US) +1.5%. US 10Y Treasury Bond -0.3%. 

The market is currently influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran. President Trump's announcement that he will decide within two weeks whether to intervene militarily has created uncertainty in financial markets, leading to a mixed performance among U.S. futures while European equities have shown some gains.

In economic data releases, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June remained unchanged at -4.0, falling short of expectations which anticipated an improvement to -1. This indicates continued weakness in manufacturing activity amid signs of slowing demand and labor market conditions.

Additionally, retail sales figures from Canada indicated a significant decline likely due to tariff impacts from the United States; preliminary estimates suggest a drop of 1.1% month-over-month for May 2023—the sharpest decrease since March 2023—reflecting reduced consumer spending amidst heightened trade tensions.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) [+0.9%]
Russell 2000 futures have risen nearly 1%, reflecting positive sentiment towards small-cap stocks represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). The Russell 2000 Index itself has increased by 2.5% today, influenced by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a delay in military action against Iran, which has eased immediate market fears. Concurrently, the Dow Jones Index has gained over 1%, suggesting broader market support for risk assets like small caps. Social media discussions have highlighted IWM's recent performance, noting its outperformance compared to the S&P 500, while also acknowledging its underperformance relative to mega-cap tech stocks. Among the ETF's holdings, GMS has surged following a takeover bid, and Oscar Health has shown strong revenue growth, contributing positively to the ETF's overall performance.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [+1.4%]
Bitcoin has increased in value by 1.4% today, coinciding with easing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, as President Trump has postponed military action for two weeks. This development appears to have positively influenced market sentiment. In the cryptocurrency sector, notable activity includes the Arizona Senate passing a bill regarding Bitcoin reserves, now moving to the House. Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego has revealed that 70% of his investment portfolio is now in Bitcoin and is contemplating a full commitment to cryptocurrency. Additionally, there is significant accumulation among Bitcoin whales, with an increase of 231 wallets holding 10 or more BTC in the past 10 days, contrasted by a decrease of 37,465 wallets holding between 0.001 and 10 BTC during the same timeframe. Social media discussions reflect a bullish sentiment, with predictions of substantial upside potential for Bitcoin.

KMX | +9.3% | +1.0B
Carmax Inc | Automotive Retail
CarMax Inc. reported its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, posting earnings per share of 1.38, exceeding analyst expectations of 1.19. Revenue reached 7.55 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of 7.54 billion. The company noted a 9% year-over-year increase in retail used vehicle unit sales, totaling 230,210 units, while comparable store sales rose by 8.1%. Total gross profit increased by 12.8% to 893.6 million, bolstered by a record gross profit per retail used unit of 2,407. Despite a slight decline in income from CarMax Auto Finance, the firm accelerated its share repurchase program, repurchasing 199.8 million in stock during the quarter, with 1.74 billion remaining in its repurchase authorization as of May 31. Concurrently, GMS Inc. surged by nearly 27% following news of a competing acquisition proposal from Home Depot, potentially influencing broader market sentiment related to CarMax.

ACN | -4.9% | -9.6B
Accenture PLC | IT Consulting & Other Services
Accenture PLC reported its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, revealing earnings per share (EPS) of 3.49, surpassing the consensus estimate of 3.32. Revenues reached 17.7 billion, exceeding expectations of 17.32 billion. Despite these positive figures, new bookings declined by 7% in local currency, totaling 19.7 billion. The company raised its full-year EPS outlook to a range of 12.77 to 12.89 but narrowed its revenue growth forecast to 6%-7% in local currency. Following the earnings announcement, Accenture's stock dropped significantly by 4.9%. Additionally, free cash flow is projected between 9 billion and 9.7 billion. The company is also undergoing restructuring with the introduction of a new unit called Reinvention Services, led by Manish Sharma.

COIN | +4.0% | +3.0B
Coinbase Global Inc | Financial Exchanges & Data
Coinbase Global Inc. has seen a notable price increase following the U.S. Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act, a bill aimed at promoting U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins. Shares surged significantly, benefiting from the legislation that requires issuers to maintain full reserves and undergo monthly audits. Additionally, Coinbase announced a new merchant payments product allowing e-commerce businesses to accept USDC with near-instant settlement, enhancing its market position. Rothschild has adjusted its price target for Coinbase to 293 from 270. On social media, discussions highlighted a partnership between JPMorgan Chase and Coinbase to launch a deposit token for institutional clients. Furthermore, stablecoin-related income has surged year-over-year, becoming Coinbase's largest revenue driver after trading. The Russell 2000 Index has also increased, reflecting broader market sentiment that may influence Coinbase's recent price movement.

DRI | +3.5% | +963.6M
Darden Restaurants Inc | Restaurants
Darden Restaurants reported its fourth-quarter results, posting sales of $3.27 billion, slightly above analyst expectations of $3.26 billion, and an adjusted EPS of $2.98, exceeding estimates of $2.97. The company noted a 4.6% increase in same-restaurant sales, with Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse achieving growths of 6.9% and 6.7%, respectively. For fiscal 2026, Darden projects adjusted EPS between $10.50 and $10.70, below the consensus estimate of $10.75. The company also announced a new share repurchase program valued at up to $1 billion and raised its quarterly dividend by 7.1% to $1.50 per share. Following the earnings report, Darden's stock experienced a notable increase. Concurrently, the Russell 2000 Index rose, reflecting broader market movements that may influence Darden's performance.

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