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Friday, March 20

Noteworthy macro moves today: US 2Y Treasury Bond Index -0.1%. US 10Y Treasury Bond Index -0.4%. USD/CNH +0.2%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Mastercard Inc (MA) +0.4%. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) +0.3%. Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.B) +0.3%. 

Global equity markets are trading lower following ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions and inflationary pressures. The major U.S. indices are particularly affected, with declines attributed to fears of rising energy costs impacting consumer spending and corporate profits.

In economic data released this morning, Canada's New Housing Price Index rose by 0.3% month-on-month in February, marking a rebound from previous declines and exceeding expectations for a decrease. However, overall sentiment remains cautious as other indicators suggest mixed signals regarding consumer demand amid persistent inflationary pressures.

Additionally, Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.3% year-on-year in February, worse than expected and indicating significant deflationary pressures driven primarily by lower energy costs. This decline has contributed to negative market sentiment as analysts express concerns over the potential impact on economic growth within the Eurozone amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties affecting commodity prices and supply chains.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+0.5%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has seen a price increase of 0.5% since Thursday. B. Yardeni Research has reaffirmed a long-term bullish outlook for gold, projecting prices could reach $6,000 by year-end and $10,000 by 2029, citing factors such as rising U.S. government debt and strong demand from Chinese investors. In the social media sphere, discussions have emerged regarding significant outflows from GLD, with reports indicating that monthly outflows are at a 13-year high. Additionally, gold prices have rebounded slightly to approximately 4,674.62 an ounce, amid a weaker dollar and easing tensions in West Asia. Despite this, gold is poised for its third consecutive weekly decline due to recent dollar strength and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance on inflation and interest rates. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also contributing to market dynamics affecting precious metals.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+0.7%]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has noted significant disruptions in global oil supplies due to the ongoing conflict in Iran, with a potential six-month timeline for restoration of normal flows from the Gulf. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright mentioned that unsanctioned Iranian oil could reach Asian ports within three to four days, with market absorption expected in 30-45 days. In the backdrop of these developments, Brent and WTI crude prices have surged. Social media discussions have highlighted predictions from Saudi oil officials of a base case price of $180 per barrel if Middle East disruptions persist until late April. Goldman Sachs warned that oil prices could surpass the 2008 all-time high due to these supply disruptions. Meanwhile, reports indicate the U.S. government is considering lifting sanctions on certain Iranian oil currently at sea, amid military actions targeting energy infrastructure in the region.

FDX | +7.2% | +6.8B
FedEx Corp | Air Freight & Logistics
FedEx Corp reported robust financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, with revenue reaching $24 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $23.42 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $5.25, exceeding the consensus estimate of $4.13. The company raised its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $19.30 to $20.10, up from a previous forecast of $17.80 to $19.00. Revenue growth expectations were also revised upward to 6% to 6.5%, compared to the prior estimate of 5% to 6%. The Federal Express segment benefited from improved package yields and domestic volume. Additionally, the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight is on track for June 1, 2026. Following the earnings announcement, FedEx shares experienced significant movement, reflecting strong market reaction to these positive developments.

XPEV | -4.1% | -1.4B
Xpeng Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Xpeng Inc. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for 2025, revealing a significant increase in revenue to RMB 22.25 billion, up 38.2% year-over-year, and achieving a net profit of RMB 0.38 billion, contrasting with a loss in the previous year. Despite this, the outlook for the first quarter of 2026 is concerning, with projected vehicle deliveries estimated between 61,000 and 66,000 units, reflecting a decline of approximately 29.8% to 35.1% year-over-year. Revenue expectations for Q1 are set between RMB 12.20 billion and RMB 13.28 billion, indicating a decrease of 16.01% to 22.84% compared to the prior year. This cautious guidance follows a revenue miss against analyst expectations. Social media discussions highlight the negative market reaction due to weak Q1 guidance despite Xpeng posting its first-ever quarterly profit.

NVO | -2.3% | -2.8B
Novo Nordisk A/S | Pharmaceuticals
Novo Nordisk A/S is encountering a challenging market environment following the launch of a generic version of semaglutide by India's Eris Lifesciences, branded as Sundae, priced at approximately 13.8 per month. This undercuts Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, which is 88% more expensive at the lowest dose. The launch coincides with the expiration of Novo Nordisk's semaglutide patent today. Additionally, the FDA has approved a higher-dose version of Wegovy for weight loss, an action that may be aimed at maintaining competitive positioning amid new market entrants. India is now the first major market to have generic semaglutide, with Natco planning to offer copies starting at around 14 per month, contrasting sharply with Wegovy's price of about 113 in India.

DELL | +4.3% | +5.0B
Dell Technologies Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Dell Technologies' stock has risen notably, reflecting a response to the significant decline of rival Super Micro Computer, which dropped sharply following criminal charges against its co-founder related to U.S. export controls. In the wake of Super Micro's turmoil, Dell's shares initially increased and showed further gains in premarket trading. Additionally, social media discussions revealed that Dell confirmed a reduction of 11,000 jobs, incurring a severance cost of $569 million, which is part of a strategy for disciplined cost management aimed at saving over $1 billion annually to reinvest in AI initiatives. This information aligns with the heightened perception of Dell's market position amidst competitive challenges in the tech sector.

SAP | -3.8% | -7.8B
Sap Se | Application Software
SAP SE has experienced a decline of 3.8% in pre-market trading. CEO Christian Klein recently emphasized that the defense industry is the company's fastest-growing sector, now contributing approximately 10% of total revenue. This growth is attributed to rising global military budgets, particularly due to ongoing conflicts such as the war in Iran and increased European defense spending following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. SAP is actively involved in modernizing logistics and personnel management systems for the German armed forces, although it faces challenges from previous software errors that caused operational disruptions. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 Index has dropped, reflecting broader market sentiment, which may correlate with SAP's price movement.

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