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Wednesday, November 13

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: US 2Y Treasury Bond +0.2%. USD/CNH -0.3%. US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.4%. Some of the largest moves among US mega-cap stocks include: Tesla Inc (TSLA) +2.9%. Mastercard Inc (MA) +1.2%.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released today indicated an annual inflation rate of 2.6% for October, up from 2.4% in September, aligning with market expectations and marking the first increase in seven months. Core CPI remained steady at a year-over-year growth of 3.3%, while monthly core prices rose by 0.3%. This stable yet slightly elevated inflation reading is likely to influence Federal Reserve policy discussions regarding interest rates.

In response to these economic indicators, there has been notable movement across various asset classes; equity futures are showing slight gains as traders digest the implications of today's CPI report on future Fed actions—specifically around potential interest rate cuts anticipated next month given current conditions that suggest sustained but manageable inflation levels might allow for continued easing policies without immediate risks of overheating the economy.

Additionally, political developments following Donald Trump's recent election victory continue to impact market sentiment significantly; concerns over his proposed tariffs could lead to increased domestic prices and further complicate monetary policy decisions moving forward into December's meetings where additional insights will be provided through upcoming speeches from key Federal Reserve officials throughout this week.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) [-1.8%]
Ethereum (ETH/USD) has declined by 1.8% since Tuesday. The upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to show a year-over-year increase in headline inflation, may influence market perceptions regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. This comes amid rising inflation concerns tied to President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies. Additionally, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has experienced a slight decline, which may also be affecting Ethereum's price movement due to their historical correlation. On a more localized front, the Nubank Cripto platform has launched a feature allowing customers to trade ETH for the stablecoin USDC, offering reduced fees compared to traditional fiat transactions.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) [+0.4%]
In the pre-market session, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has moved up slightly by 0.4% since Tuesday. Social media discussions have highlighted active short selling in U.S. Treasury Bonds ahead of the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. Observers noted a rise in the U.S. dollar alongside the 10-year Treasury yield, while TLT's performance has shown weakness. Recent conversations attributed a significant drop in TLT prices to rising bond yields, with ongoing Federal Reserve interest rate hikes raising concerns about further declines. The anticipation of today's CPI report is expected to influence market sentiment and Federal Reserve decisions, which may directly impact bond prices. Additionally, inflation concerns related to potential fiscal policies under President-elect Donald Trump have contributed to the current negative return of long-term Treasury bonds.

SPOT | +8.3% | +7.5B
Spotify Technology SA | Movies & Entertainment
Spotify Technology S.A. reported its third-quarter results on November 12, 2024, revealing earnings of €1.45 per share and revenue of €3.99 billion, both below consensus estimates. Despite these misses, the company reported a year-over-year increase in monthly active users to 640 million and premium subscribers to 252 million. Following the earnings report, Spotify issued a bullish forecast for the fourth quarter, projecting operating income of €481 million and monthly active users of 665 million, exceeding analyst expectations. This led to a notable rise in shares during after-hours trading. Social media discussions highlighted improved gross margins of 31.1%, up from 26.4% a year earlier, as a factor in the stock's performance. Analysts responded positively, with KeyBanc raising its price target to $520 and Deutsche Bank increasing it to $500, citing strong growth and effective cost management strategies.

RKT | -10.9% | -3.0B
Rocket Companies Inc | Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Rocket Companies Inc. reported its third-quarter results, revealing an adjusted EPS of $0.08, meeting analyst expectations. However, the company's revenue of $647 million fell significantly short of the consensus estimate of $1.28 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of over 35%. The Q4 revenue outlook is also disappointing, with projections ranging from $1.05 billion to $1.20 billion, below the anticipated $1.31 billion. Following these results, shares declined approximately 10% in after-hours trading. Additionally, Wedbush has reduced its price target for Rocket Companies to $13 from $18 while maintaining a Neutral rating. Social media discussions highlight the weak home sale market as a significant factor affecting the company's performance, with sentiments suggesting that the negative outlook was not adequately addressed in the press release.

RIVN | +10.1%| +1.2B
Rivian Automotive Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Rivian Automotive Inc has announced a significant joint venture with Volkswagen Group, valued at up to $5.8 billion, aimed at developing advanced software and electrical architectures for electric vehicles. This partnership, named Rivian and VW Group Technology, LLC, is set to utilize Rivian's technology to launch its R2 model in the first half of 2026 and support Volkswagen's new models as early as 2027. Volkswagen's investment includes an initial $1 billion in convertible debt and an additional $1.3 billion for a 50% equity stake in the venture. Following this announcement, Rivian shares experienced a notable pre-market rise, reflecting positive market sentiment surrounding the implications of this collaboration. Social media activity highlighted the increase in the joint venture deal and its potential benefits for both companies, with Rivian gaining essential funding and Volkswagen accessing advanced electric vehicle technology.

CYBR | +6.8%| +923.1M
CyberArk Software Ltd | Systems Software
CyberArk Software Ltd reported strong third-quarter results, achieving a net income of $11.11 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $14.61 million in the same period last year. The company posted an adjusted EPS of $0.94, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.46. Revenue for the quarter reached $240.1 million, surpassing expectations of $234.1 million, and reflecting a 26 percent increase from $191.2 million in Q3 2023. Additionally, CyberArk raised its full-year 2024 revenue outlook to between $983 million and $989 million and set EPS guidance for Q4 FY2024 at $0.65-$0.75. The company also announced a CFO transition, with Josh Siegel stepping down in January 2025, to be succeeded by Erica Smith, currently the Deputy CFO. This positive earnings report and updated guidance have coincided with a notable increase in share price.

SU | +4.7% | +2.4B
Suncor Energy Inc | Integrated Oil & Gas
Suncor Energy Inc. reported its Q3 2024 earnings, revealing an adjusted operating EPS of C$1.48, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of C$1.12. Cash flow from operations reached C$4.26 billion, surpassing expectations of C$3.07 billion. Upstream production was 828,600 barrels per day, while refinery throughput was 487,600 barrels per day, exceeding the estimate of 449,755 barrels per day. Revenue increased to C$13.06 billion from C$12.64 billion year-over-year, also above the analyst expectation of C$13 billion. The board approved a 5% increase in the quarterly dividend to C$0.57 per share, payable on December 24 to shareholders of record as of December 3. Social media sentiment has been notably positive, with comments describing the quarter as a "Monster quarter" and expressing enthusiasm for the results. Suncor is currently outperforming its peers in the Integrated Oil & Gas sector.

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