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Wednesday, April 9

Noteworthy macro moves today: US 10Y Treasury Bond -0.9%. Gold +2.1%. Oil (WTI) -3.8%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) -3.8%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) -2.6%. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) -2.6%. 

The market is currently experiencing significant volatility due to the implementation of a 104% tariff on Chinese imports by President Trump, which has reignited fears of an escalating trade war. This development led to sharp declines in major U.S. equity indices, with futures indicating further losses as investors react negatively to heightened uncertainty surrounding global economic stability.

In response to these tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and growth prospects, traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle sooner than previously anticipated. The probability for a cut at the upcoming May meeting has surged from approximately 10% last week to over 52%, reflecting growing concerns about recession risks stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Additionally, rising Treasury yields have been observed amid worries regarding liquidity stress within financial markets; this situation may be exacerbated if foreign entities begin selling off U.S. debt in reaction to aggressive fiscal policies recently enacted by Washington. As such conditions unfold, gold prices have risen sharply as investors seek safe-haven assets amidst broader risk aversion across various asset classes.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+2.2%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has experienced a notable price increase of 2.2% in the pre-market session, coinciding with significant movements in gold prices. June gold has surged by 3%, reaching approximately 3,080 an ounce, following an earlier rise of 2.4% to about 3,062 an ounce. This uptick in gold prices appears linked to escalating tariffs between the U.S. and China, which have been widely discussed on social media platforms. Additionally, conversations highlight concerns from market strategist Michele Schneider regarding the current economic uncertainty, advising caution in purchasing gold or silver despite a bullish outlook for these metals. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff developments are influencing the market dynamics surrounding gold-related assets, including GLD.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [-4.8%]
United States Oil Fund LP (USO) is experiencing a significant pre-market decline of nearly 5%. This movement coincides with a sharp drop in WTI crude oil prices, which fell approximately 6% to $56, following China's decision to raise tariffs on U.S. goods. The escalating trade tensions have heightened fears of a global economic downturn, contributing to substantial losses in U.S. markets, including the S&P 500, which dipped below 5,000. Additionally, crude oil has reached multi-year lows amid concerns over rising supply and recession risks. In a contrasting development, the latest American Petroleum Institute report indicated a decrease of over 1 million barrels in crude inventories, reversing a previous build, which typically influences USO's volatility significantly in response to inventory changes. Social media discussions further highlight that oil prices have hit a four-year low due to the ongoing trade conflict.

BMY | -3.6% | -3.7B
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co | Pharmaceuticals
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's stock has dropped significantly, declining since Tuesday. A recent leadership change has occurred, with Subhashis Banerjee, previously the disease area head for rheumatology and dermatology global development at the company, appointed as chief medical officer of Artiva Biotherapeutics. This announcement was made approximately 15 hours ago. Concurrently, the FDA has granted approval for Bristol-Myers Squibb's dual checkpoint therapy for first-line colorectal cancer treatment. Additionally, the FDA converted the accelerated approval for the immuno-oncology drug Opdivo to full approval for adult and pediatric patients aged 12 years and older with a form of metastatic colorectal cancer. These developments are being discussed on social media and may influence Bristol-Myers Squibb's equity performance. Furthermore, a federal judge in New York dismissed a proposed class action lawsuit against the company, potentially alleviating some legal pressures.

GS | -3.6% | -5.2B
Goldman Sachs Group Inc | Investment Banking & Brokerage
Goldman Sachs Group Inc has experienced a price decline of 3.6%, aligning with significant drops in the broader market, which is currently facing volatility due to the implementation of a 104% tariff on Chinese imports. This escalation in trade tensions has resulted in sharp declines across major equity indices, with U.S. futures indicating substantial losses. The Dow Jones Index has declined notably, contributing to Goldman Sachs' price movement. Additionally, banking CEOs, including those from Goldman Sachs, recently convened in Washington and expressed a consensus regarding their diminished influence on President Trump, reflecting uncertainty within the banking sector. Goldman Sachs has noted that not all bear markets are alike, as major U.S. stock indices approach bear market thresholds. The company is also set to announce its Q1 FY2025 earnings soon, with revised EPS and revenue estimates.

BP | -2.7% | -11.4B
BP PLC | Integrated Oil & Gas
BP PLC has seen a price decline of 2.7% since the previous close, aligning with a broader downturn in the Integrated Oil & Gas sector. The U.S. government has revoked licenses for BP and Shell related to gas projects in Venezuela, which could significantly impact BP's operational prospects in that region. Over the past five days, BP's stock has dropped approximately 22.5%, a decline greater than those observed during the US Gulf of Mexico oil spill crisis and the conclusion of the 2008 commodity boom, comparable only to downturns seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the OPEC+ price war. This substantial drop coincides with a 3.28% decline in the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund and a 4.03% decrease in Brent crude oil prices, reflecting broader market sentiment within the energy sector.

AAPL | -2.1% | -53.3B
Apple Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Apple Inc. is experiencing notable stock volatility, with shares declining significantly since early April. This drop is primarily attributed to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly following the announcement of a 104% retaliatory tariff on Chinese imports. Concerns regarding potential supply chain disruptions and weakened sales in China have intensified. Reports indicate that Apple has executed urgent logistics operations, airlifting five planeloads of iPhones to the U.S. ahead of the tariff hikes. Manufacturing costs for iPhones could rise sharply, increasing from $580 to $850 per unit. In response to these challenges, supplier Luxshare is considering relocating production outside China, potentially expanding operations in Vietnam. The broader market is also under pressure, with major U.S. indices reflecting significant declines, contributing to Apple's recent 2.1% drop in pre-market trading.

BX | -3.3% | -4.6B
Blackstone Inc | Asset Management & Custody Banks
Blackstone Inc has experienced a decline of 3.3%, aligning with broader market movements amid significant volatility. The Dow Jones Index has dropped over 2%, reflecting the overall negative sentiment. This downturn coincides with the implementation of a 104% tariff on Chinese imports, raising fears of a trade war and potential recession. Major financial institutions have adjusted their outlook on Blackstone, with Citigroup maintaining a Neutral rating and lowering its price target, while Wells Fargo has retained an Equal-Weight rating with a reduced target as well. On a more positive note, Blackstone has successfully closed a $10.8 billion European property fund, which may signal potential recovery opportunities despite current market challenges. Social media discussions highlight concerns regarding a significant decline in Blackstone's stock price since February, drawing parallels with other private equity firms facing similar downturns.

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