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Wednesday, April 16

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold +2.6%. Nasdaq 100 Index (US) -1.5%. US Dollar Index -0.5%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) -6.7%. Broadcom Inc (AVGO) -3.5%. Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) -2.1%. 

Recent market movements are heavily influenced by escalating trade tensions and significant economic data releases. U.S. stock futures have declined as investors react to President Trump's announcement of an investigation into potential tariffs on critical minerals, alongside new export restrictions affecting Nvidia's AI chips sold to China, which is expected to incur a $5.5 billion charge for the company.

In terms of economic indicators, U.S. retail sales surged 1.4% in March—exceeding expectations—and industrial production figures will be closely monitored later today amid concerns about how ongoing tariff disputes might impact future consumer spending and overall growth prospects in the economy.

Gold prices continue their upward trajectory amidst fears of stagflation driven by rising inflation coupled with slowing growth; this has led many investors toward safe-haven assets like gold while confidence wanes regarding the stability of traditional investments such as equities or bonds due to uncertainty surrounding monetary policy shifts from central banks responding to these macroeconomic pressures.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+2.3%]
Gold prices surged to $3,319 per ounce, marking a 2.44% increase, with an all-time high of $3,334.20 reached recently. This price movement coincides with escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and a notable demand for safe-haven assets. In premarket trading, SPDR Gold Shares rose by 2.3%. Social media highlights significant milestones, including spot gold surpassing $3,310 and achieving new all-time highs. The US dollar has fallen to a six-month low, while fund managers express heightened bearish sentiment toward the dollar, prompting traders to hedge against its weakness. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and concerns regarding Nvidia's export restrictions to China are contributing to the rising value of gold as investors seek protection against market volatility.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) [-1.4%]
The Invesco QQQ Trust Series I has experienced downward pressure, declining by 1.4% in pre-market trading. This decline aligns with broader market trends, notably influenced by heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and China, following the Trump administration's announcement of significant tariff increases on Chinese imports. Nasdaq futures have dropped as a result, reflecting concerns over economic growth. Nvidia's recent export restrictions to China have added to market volatility, with discussions on social media highlighting the adverse impact on QQQ sentiment. Notably, major holdings within the ETF, including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices, have reported significant declines in their stock prices due to various challenges, including new export licensing requirements and insider selling activity. Despite a slight increase during the S&P 500 closing bell, QQQ's performance remains mixed amid ongoing uncertainty in the technology sector.

UAL | +6.1% | +1.4B
United Airlines Holdings Inc | Passenger Airlines
United Airlines Holdings Inc reported its first-quarter earnings on April 15, 2025, revealing a net income of $387 million and adjusted earnings per share of $0.91, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.74. Operating revenue rose 5.4% year-over-year to $13.21 billion, slightly below the anticipated $13.23 billion. The airline's capacity increased by 4.9%, with a load factor of 79.2%. United provided dual forecasts for its full-year adjusted EPS: $11.50 to $13.50 under stable conditions and $7 to $9 in a recessionary scenario. Following the announcement, shares rose approximately 6.3% in after-hours trading. The CEO also adjusted the Q2 EPS guidance to a midpoint of $3.75, down from $4.25, citing recession assumptions. Additionally, Raymond James downgraded UAL to Market Perform from Outperform, which may influence market sentiment moving forward.

NVDA | -6.2% | -161.2B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp has experienced a significant decline, moving lower alongside the broader market and the semiconductor sector. The company's shares fell sharply following the U.S. government's announcement of new export restrictions on its H20 microchips to China, which now require a license for export indefinitely. This development is expected to result in up to $5.5 billion in charges for NVIDIA's first-quarter financial results. The company has reported around $18 billion in orders for H20 chips since the beginning of 2025, underscoring substantial market demand now hindered by these restrictions. Social media discussions reflect heightened concerns over potential revenue losses, estimating NVIDIA could miss out on $14 to $18 billion for the year. Additionally, Advanced Micro Devices Inc has also seen a notable decline, contributing to the overall negative sentiment affecting NVIDIA.

AMD | -6.7% | -9.7B
Advanced Micro Devices Inc | Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. is experiencing significant challenges following the announcement of new export licensing requirements for its MI308 artificial intelligence chips to China. This development has led to a premarket decline of approximately 6.5%, mirroring similar restrictions imposed on NVIDIA. Market sentiment reflects concerns regarding the implications of these curbs on AMD's competitiveness in the AI sector. Analysts have noted that this ban has already influenced revised estimates by Citi for AMD and its peers, including Broadcom and Micron Technology. Social media discussions highlighted a notable decline in AMD's stock price, with reports of an 8% drop linked to the U.S. banning sales of NVIDIA's H20 chip to China. Additionally, rumors suggest TSMC may increase prices by 30% for 4nm capacity at U.S. fabs due to strong demand and shifting supply chain strategies, further impacting AMD's stock performance.

DAL | +4.0% | +1.1B
Delta Air Lines Inc | Passenger Airlines
Delta Air Lines Inc is experiencing a notable increase, reflecting the broader upward movement in the Passenger Airlines sub-sector. Recently, the CEO of Delta expressed concerns about a potential recession in the United States. This comes in conjunction with United Airlines reducing its Q2 earnings per share guidance, now set at $3.75, down from a previous estimate of $4.25, factoring in recession-related assumptions. Additionally, United Airlines saw a significant rise following its strong first-quarter earnings report, which highlighted a net income turnaround that exceeded analyst expectations. This positive performance in United Airlines may be influencing the favorable sentiment surrounding Delta Air Lines.

TRV | +2.3% | +1.4B
Travelers Companies Inc | Property & Casualty Insurance
Travelers Companies Inc reported Q1 total revenues of $11.81 billion, reflecting a 5.2% increase from the previous year’s $11.23 billion. The company achieved a core earnings per share (EPS) of $1.91, significantly surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.81. Net written premiums rose to $10.52 billion, up from $10.18 billion year-over-year. Despite facing catastrophe losses of $2.27 billion, the underlying combined ratio improved to 84.8%, compared to 87.7% in the prior year. The Board of Directors announced a 5% increase in the quarterly dividend to $1.10 per share, payable on June 30, 2025, to shareholders of record by June 10, 2025. Following the earnings release, Travelers' stock price experienced a notable increase.

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