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Thursday, March 13

Noteworthy macro moves today: US Dollar Index +0.4%. AUD/USD -0.9%. 

Recent market movements are significantly influenced by ongoing trade tensions and economic data releases. U.S. President Donald Trump's recent threats to escalate tariffs on European goods have heightened concerns about a potential global recession, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which has seen prices rise close to record highs at $2,946 per ounce.

Economic indicators released today show mixed signals regarding the health of the U.S. economy; producer prices remained unchanged in February while core producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1%, indicating cooling inflation pressures that could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions ahead of their upcoming meeting next week. Additionally, initial jobless claims decreased slightly more than expected this past week but remain indicative of a tight labor market amidst broader uncertainty.

In Europe, industrial production rebounded with an increase of 0.8% month-over-month in January—surpassing expectations—which may provide some support against fears stemming from tariff disputes and political instability within Germany's coalition government over fiscal policies aimed at boosting defense spending amid these challenges.

Global X DAX Germany ETF (DAX) [-1.4%]
The Global X DAX Germany ETF (DAX) has seen its price move down since Wednesday. The DAX Index opened 0.75% lower today, losing 169 points, with notable declines from Puma, Volkswagen, and Siemens Healthineers. This drop follows a reversal of gains from the previous day, as the index trades near 22,500. Concerns regarding escalating trade tensions have intensified, particularly with President Donald Trump's plans for additional tariffs, which have already prompted retaliation from the European Union and Canada. On social media, discussions highlight a proposed 500 billion Euro defense fund amid rising political tensions in Germany, alongside warnings from the Bundesbank Chief about a potential U.S.-EU trade war leading to recession. In contrast, Euro Zone industrial output has exceeded forecasts, driven by a rebound in Germany, while the Institute for Economic Research has raised its growth forecast for 2026 due to a public spending push.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [-0.7%]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that global oil supply may exceed demand by approximately 600,000 barrels per day this year, following a downward revision in its 2025 demand growth estimate to around 1 million barrels per day. This adjustment is attributed to a slower rate of oil deliveries and rising trade tensions. If OPEC+ continues to unwind output cuts, the surplus could increase by an additional 400,000 barrels per day. Concurrently, Brent crude prices are declining, reflecting heightened global trade tensions after President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The IEA's report indicates that the anticipated surplus is larger than previously forecasted, contributing to the prevailing uncertainty in the oil market.

ADBE | -6.3% | -11.5B
Adobe Inc | Application Software
Adobe Inc reported its first-quarter results for fiscal year 2025 on March 12, achieving an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 5.08, exceeding the consensus estimate of 4.97. Revenue reached 5.71 billion, surpassing expectations of 5.66 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 10%. Despite these positive figures, the company's guidance for the second quarter suggests an adjusted EPS between 4.95 and 5.00, with projected revenue of 5.77 billion to 5.82 billion, both slightly below analyst forecasts. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance of 23.30 billion to 23.55 billion, which also fell short of market expectations. Following the announcement, shares declined approximately 3% in after-hours trading, with Bank of America subsequently lowering its price target for Adobe from 605 to 528, citing concerns over the trajectory of its creative and digital experience businesses.

DG | +7.7% | +1.4B
Dollar General Corp | Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Dollar General Corporation reported its fourth-quarter results, revealing adjusted earnings per share of 1.68, exceeding analyst estimates of 1.50. Revenue reached 10.3 billion, surpassing the consensus forecast of 10.26 billion and marking a year-over-year increase of 4.5%. Same-store sales rose by 1.2%, supported by a 2.3% increase in average transaction amounts, despite a decline in customer traffic. CEO Todd Vasos highlighted improved execution and customer satisfaction as contributing factors. The quarter included charges of 232 million related to the closure of 96 Dollar General stores and 45 pOpshelf stores, negatively impacting EPS by approximately 0.81. For fiscal year 2025, the company anticipates net sales growth between 3.4% and 4.4%, with same-store sales growth projected at 1.2% to 2.2%. Social media discussions reflect concerns about two consecutive earnings misses and the stock's position at five-year lows, although there was a noted rise in stock price following the earnings report.

PCAR | -6.3% | -3.2B
Paccar Inc | Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Paccar Inc. is experiencing downward pressure following a recent ruling by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which has introduced downside risks to the company's financial estimates. This regulatory decision coincided with a significant decline in premarket trading, where Paccar's shares dropped notably. Additionally, a social media post shared during trading hours indicated a negative outlook for both Cummins and Paccar, referencing an order from Trump to terminate $20 billion in funding for a "green bank" that supports clean energy projects. This decision is expected to impact various industries, including automotive, which may further influence Paccar's operational performance and financial outlook.

CMI | -3.2% | -1.4B
Cummins Inc | Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Cummins Inc. has experienced a notable decline in pre-market trading, dropping significantly following a recent Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ruling that introduces downside risks to earnings estimates. This news emerged just over an hour ago, coinciding with a premarket decline of nearly 3% for Cummins, while competitor PACCAR saw a drop of 5.5%. Additionally, social media discussions reflect a negative outlook for both companies, particularly after former President Trump directed the EPA to cancel $20 billion in funding for a "green bank" aimed at supporting clean energy initiatives. This decision is anticipated to impact various industries, including automotive, which directly relates to Cummins' market position.

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