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Tuesday, August 6

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: Oil (WTI) -2.3%. Bitcoin +1.9%. Gold -0.6%. Some of the largest moves among US mega-cap stocks include: Apple Inc (AAPL) -1.5%. Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) +1.4%. Microsoft Corp (MSFT) +1.0%. 

The global markets are experiencing significant volatility, with a notable rebound in Japanese equities. The Nikkei 225 surged by over 10% following Monday's historic plunge, driven by strong service sector and employment data from Tokyo. This recovery comes amid broader market instability triggered by weak U.S. economic data last week that reignited recession fears.

Economic indicators show mixed results across major economies: the United States reported an increase in exports to a four-month high of $265.9 billion for June while its trade deficit narrowed slightly but remained above expectations at $73.1 billion; Canadian exports reached their highest value since January 2023 due to substantial increases in energy products and other sectors; German factory orders rebounded strongly with a month-over-month rise of 3.9%, exceeding forecasts significantly.

In Europe, construction activity continues to contract sharply as indicated by PMI readings for Germany (40), France (39.7), Italy (45) and the Eurozone overall (41). These figures reflect ongoing challenges within the region’s construction sector amidst prolonged periods of high interest rates set forth by central banks like ECB which have dampened demand both privately and publicly leading into further job shedding scenarios among constructors.

SMH [+1.2%]
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has seen a price increase of 1.7% since Monday. Key contributors to this performance include NVDA, which returned 1.72%, contributing 0.43%. CDNS followed with a return of 2.88%, adding 0.07%. AVGO increased by 0.74%, contributing 0.06%. KLAC also saw a return of 1.69%, contributing 0.06%, while LRCX returned 1.18%, contributing 0.05%. These movements among the ETF's holdings highlight significant activity within the semiconductor sector.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [+1.9%]
Bitcoin surged over 56,000 early Tuesday, marking a recovery following a significant decline that saw its price dip below 50,000 for nearly six months. This rebound coincides with El Salvador's ongoing accumulation of Bitcoin reserves amid market volatility. Additionally, Capula Management, Europe's fourth-largest hedge fund, invested 500 million in Bitcoin ETFs during this turbulent period. Despite a recent drop in Bitcoin's price, key indicators suggest potential bullish momentum, with the long-term options market skew and dip buying on U.S. exchanges reflecting resilience. The impending death cross has raised concerns; however, previous occurrences have often led to bear traps rather than sustained downtrends.

UBER |+8.4%|+11.1B
Uber Technologies Inc. is experiencing a notable price increase, moving higher alongside its sector and outperforming its peers. The company reported strong second-quarter results, with earnings per share of 0.47, significantly surpassing the analyst estimate of 0.31. Revenue for the quarter reached 10.70 billion, exceeding expectations of 10.57 billion and reflecting a year-over-year increase of nearly 16%. Gross bookings totaled approximately 40 billion, marking a year-over-year rise of 19%. For the third quarter, Uber anticipates gross bookings between 40.25 billion and 41.75 billion, projecting growth of 18% to 23% year-over-year. Additionally, monthly active platform consumers increased by 14% to 156 million, while adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was reported at 1.57 billion, highlighting a significant rise in profitability.

LUMN | +48.1% | +1.9B
Lumen Technologies Inc is experiencing a notable increase, attributed to its recent acquisition of $5 billion in deals from cloud and tech companies, driven by heightened demand for AI-related connectivity solutions. This includes a significant partnership with Microsoft aimed at enhancing AI workload capacity. Furthermore, Lumen is pursuing an additional $7 billion in sales opportunities. In response to this growing demand, the company plans to more than double its intercity network miles over the next five years and has partnered with Corning to develop next-generation fiber-dense cable. Additionally, Lumen has established a new division, Custom Networks, to address the increasing need for its Private Connectivity Fabric solutions portfolio.

PLTR |+11.2%|+6.7B
Palantir Technologies Inc. has experienced a significant price increase, moving higher alongside the broader market and outperforming sector peers. The company reported strong second-quarter results, achieving adjusted earnings per share of $0.09, surpassing estimates, and generating revenue of $678.13 million, exceeding the consensus forecast. This represents a notable year-over-year revenue growth, particularly in U.S. commercial revenue, which rose substantially. Additionally, Palantir raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $2.742 billion and $2.75 billion, up from previous estimates. Following these announcements, shares surged over 12% in after-hours trading, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the company's performance and growth strategies in AI-driven solutions.

CAT |+3.2% | +5.1B
Caterpillar Inc. reported Q2 adjusted earnings per share of 5.99, exceeding the consensus estimate of 5.54 by a notable margin. Revenue for the quarter reached 16.70 billion, slightly above expectations but reflecting a decline from the previous year’s 17.32 billion. The company’s order backlog increased by 0.7 billion compared to Q1, and it ended the quarter with 4.3 billion in enterprise cash and 3 billion in operating cash flow. Chairman and CEO Jim Umpleby highlighted the strong results and the advantages of diverse end markets alongside disciplined strategy execution. Following this news, Caterpillar's stock price has moved up by 3.0% in pre-market trading.

NVDA |+2.7%|+68.5B
NVIDIA Corp is experiencing a notable price increase, moving in tandem with the broader market, which is also showing significant upward momentum. In company-specific news, Elliott Management has voiced skepticism regarding NVIDIA's valuation, labeling its stock as being in a "bubble." The firm has raised concerns about the sustainability of demand for NVIDIA's graphics processing units from major tech companies. They argue that many AI applications may not be cost-effective, could consume excessive energy, or fail to operate reliably. This critical perspective coincides with wider apprehensions about the valuation of technology stocks amid fluctuating market conditions.

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