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Monday, February 9

Noteworthy macro moves today: Nikkei 225 Index (Japan) +4.8%. EUR/USD +0.7%. US Dollar Index -0.6%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) +1.8%. Microsoft Corp (MSFT) +1.2%. Walmart Inc (WMT) -0.6%. 

Global equity markets are trading higher following a significant rally in Asia, particularly driven by Japan's Nikkei 225 Index, which surged nearly 4.8% after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's coalition secured a historic election victory. This political stability is expected to pave the way for increased government spending and tax cuts, boosting investor sentiment across the region.

In the U.S., equity indices are mixed as traders remain cautious ahead of key economic data releases later this week, including delayed jobs figures and inflation reports. The upcoming Labor Department report is anticipated to show an increase in employment by approximately 70,000 jobs for January, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.4%, influencing market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.

Additionally, Japan's current account surplus fell significantly below forecasts, raising concerns about economic stability despite the positive market reaction to the election results. The reported surplus of JPY 728.8 billion was much lower than expected and highlights potential weaknesses in trade balances that could affect future monetary policy decisions.

iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) [+1.1%]
Japanese equities have reached record highs following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's election victory, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) securing a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house by winning 316 of 465 seats. This marks a historic achievement, as it is the first time since 1947 that a single party has attained such a majority. The Japan Innovation Party, the LDP's coalition partner, added 36 seats, bringing their combined total to 352. Concurrently, Japan's current account data for December showed a surplus of 7.288 trillion yen, significantly exceeding the estimated 1.060 trillion yen, while the adjusted current account surplus was reported at 2.70 trillion yen, slightly below expectations. The Nikkei 225 index surged over 4%, reflecting the political stability and potential favorable economic policies stemming from this electoral outcome. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) has seen a daily return of approximately 0.94%, bolstered by movements in USD/JPY.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-1.9%]
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has experienced a decline of 1.9% since Sunday, trading near $69,000 and fluctuating between $68,000 and $71,000 over the past 24 hours. Cango Inc., a Bitcoin mining company, sold approximately $305 million worth of Bitcoin over the weekend as part of its pivot towards AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, Bhutan transferred $22 million in BTC, reducing its holdings to 5,700 BTC. Binance's SAFU Fund acquired an additional 4,225 BTC, raising its total to 10,455 BTC. A glitch during a Bithumb giveaway briefly credited users with excessive BTC, causing a localized price drop. MicroStrategy purchased 1,142 BTC for around $90 million, increasing its total holdings to 714,644 BTC. Concurrently, Ethereum (ETH/USD) declined by 2.19%, reflecting broader market sentiment.

WDAY | -5.8% | -2.4B
Workday Inc | Application Software
Workday Inc. has announced a leadership transition, with co-founder Aneel Bhusri returning as CEO, effective immediately, succeeding Carl Eschenbach, who is stepping down from both the role and the board. Eschenbach's tenure involved global expansion and operational scaling initiatives. Despite this change, Workday reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and full-year financial outlook, expecting results to align with prior guidance. The company is scheduled to report its fourth quarter and full-year results on February 24, 2026. Concurrently, social media discussions have raised concerns about the valuation of software companies, including Workday. A thread noted that declining multiples for software names are linked to broader market sentiments. There are apprehensions regarding the potential for AI disruption affecting future cash flows, contributing to lower terminal values across the sector.

NVO | +5.2% | +8.7B
Novo Nordisk A/S | Pharmaceuticals
Novo Nordisk A/S has experienced a notable market reaction following Hims & Hers' announcement to discontinue its compounded semaglutide weight-loss pill, a decision prompted by FDA warnings regarding the safety and efficacy of non-FDA-approved drugs. This regulatory action coincides with Novo Nordisk's ongoing efforts to protect its intellectual property. Additionally, the company has launched a share repurchase program aimed at DKK 15 billion over the next year, reinforcing its financial strategy. Concurrently, social media discussions have highlighted the implications of Novo Nordisk's lawsuit against Hims for patent infringement concerning semaglutide. The competitive landscape has intensified as Hims' stock faced significant declines due to regulatory pressures, while some analysts view recent price movements in Novo Nordisk's shares as favorable amidst these challenges.

ORCL | +4.8% | +19.6B
Oracle Corp | Systems Software
Oracle Corp has seen a notable increase in its stock price following an upgrade from DA Davidson, which raised its rating to Buy from Neutral, setting a price target of 180 per share. This upgrade reflects diminishing concerns regarding Oracle's exposure to OpenAI, as highlighted by analyst Gil Luria. He noted that OpenAI's considerable cash reserves, estimated at 40 billion, could bolster Oracle's data center investments. Luria also pointed out the strength in Oracle’s core software operations and mentioned TikTok USA as a potential value driver, although he acknowledged the company’s significant debt as a challenge. Additionally, social media discussions emphasize Texas's projected capture of nearly 30% of the U.S. data center market by 2028, with a substantial increase anticipated over the next three years, which may benefit Oracle. Conversations also reflect a shift in market sentiment toward Oracle and its peers amid easing risks associated with OpenAI.

NWG | -8.5% | -11.7B
NatWest Group PLC | Diversified Banks
NatWest Group PLC is reportedly finalizing a £2.7 billion takeover of Evelyn Partners, a major UK wealth manager, following a competitive auction against Barclays. This acquisition is anticipated to enhance NatWest's scale and capabilities in a growth-oriented market. Despite this strategic move, shares of NatWest fell by approximately 6% in premarket trading, reflecting market concerns regarding the financial implications of such a substantial acquisition. CEO Paul Thwaite underscored the merger's strategic importance for achieving necessary market positioning. Additionally, NatWest is set to announce its Q4 FY2025 earnings on February 13, 2026, with an EPS estimate of $0.38 and a revenue estimate of $5.7 billion, indicating an increase from previous estimates.

DT | +12.6% | +1.4B
Dynatrace Inc | Application Software
Dynatrace Inc. has reported strong third-quarter fiscal results, achieving an adjusted EPS of 0.44, surpassing estimates of 0.41. Total revenue reached 515 million, exceeding the consensus of 506.23 million and reflecting an 18.2% year-over-year increase. The company raised its fiscal year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of 1.67 to 1.69, above the prior range of 1.62 to 1.64 and consensus of 1.64. Furthermore, Dynatrace projected fourth-quarter revenue between 518 million and 523 million, indicating a positive outlook. Notably, the company announced a new 1 billion stock repurchase plan, underscoring its confidence in business strength and commitment to shareholder value.

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