Japan Bond Market Turmoil Emerges as Key Global Risk, RVMD Slides as Merck Deal Falls Through | MarketReader Minute
Global equity markets mixed as U.S. Durable Goods Orders rise, but Japan's bond market crash and tariff threats heighten investor caution.
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Monday, January 26
Noteworthy macro moves today: USD/JPY -1.0%. Gold +1.7%. Ethereum +3.2%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Apple Inc (AAPL) +1.4%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +1.4%.
Global equity markets are trading mixed as investors react to a series of economic data releases and geopolitical tensions. In the U.S., Durable Goods Orders for November surged by 5.3%, significantly exceeding expectations and contributing to positive sentiment regarding manufacturing resilience despite ongoing economic uncertainties.
However, Japan's bond market crash poses a potential risk estimated at $7 trillion for global financial markets, leading to heightened caution among investors. This situation is compounded by rising interest rates and speculation about possible interventions from the Bank of Japan, which has further impacted market dynamics.
Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of imposing a 100% tariff on Canadian exports if Canada pursues a trade deal with China has added to the uncertainty in global trade relations. This backdrop of tariff threats and geopolitical tensions is influencing investor sentiment across various regions, particularly in Europe, where stocks are trading lower amid these concerns.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+1.8%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has risen by 1.8% amid a backdrop of escalating geopolitical risks and declining confidence in U.S. leadership. Gold prices have surged past $5,000 per ounce, reaching a record high of $5,111, driven by ongoing trade tensions and the potential for a U.S. government shutdown. Central banks, notably Poland, are increasing gold reserves to diversify away from the dollar. Analysts emphasize that this rally reflects structural demand rather than speculative trading, as investors seek safe-haven assets. Social media discussions have highlighted that GLD is nearing the $5,000 mark, with some posts suggesting a historical total return since inception that outpaces Berkshire Hathaway. Concurrently, silver has seen a significant increase, reinforcing broader market sentiment towards precious metals.
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) [+6.8%]
Spot silver prices have surged to $110 per troy ounce, reflecting a rise of over 6% from the previous day, amid heightened policy uncertainty and a weaker U.S. dollar. The iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) has gained approximately 76% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which rose 19% in the same period. Social media reports indicate that spot silver prices recently topped $108 per ounce, with Comex silver futures rising over 6%. There are claims of a significant short squeeze in SLV, described as "bonkers" activity. Recent discussions highlight tightening supply and increased demand for physical silver, with users noting that SLV reached new all-time highs of $106 per ounce. Additionally, concerns over potential U.S. government shutdowns and geopolitical tensions are contributing to the demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets.


RVMD | -20.4% | -3.2B
Revolution Medicines Inc | Biotechnology
Revolution Medicines Inc. has seen a significant decline in its stock price following the termination of acquisition talks with Merck & Co. The discussions, which had valued Revolution Medicines at approximately $30 billion, ended due to disagreements over valuation, as Merck's acquisition strategy has shifted to focus on deals valued at $15 billion or less. Prior to this news, Revolution Medicines' market valuation had surged to over $22 billion amid speculation. As of late last night, the stock was reported to be limit down, reflecting a drop of nearly 20%. Social media discussions have highlighted the mixed sentiment among users regarding this development, with some considering the price drop as a potential buying opportunity. The company is also preparing to release important clinical trial data for its cancer drug candidates in the upcoming months.
HL | +6.1% | +1.3B
Hecla Mining Co | Silver
Hecla Mining Co has experienced a notable price increase of 6.1%, coinciding with a significant rise in the silver sector. The company reported full-year silver production of 17 million ounces for 2025, surpassing the previous year's output by over 5% and achieving the top end of its guidance. Operations at Lucky Friday and Greens Creek exceeded expectations, with Lucky Friday producing 5.3 million ounces of silver. For 2026, Hecla has set consolidated silver production guidance between 15.1 to 16.5 million ounces, alongside gold production guidance of 134,000 to 146,000 ounces. A capital investment range of $255 million to $279 million was announced, with exploration and pre-development investments increasing to a record $55 million. Social media discussions highlight the company's upcoming Investor Day in New York City, where management will discuss strategy and operations, amidst rising silver prices and the stock's recent all-time high.
AAPL | +1.6% | +61.2B
Apple Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Apple Inc is experiencing a price increase, aligning with the upward movement in the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals sector. Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed a ‘Buy’ rating ahead of the Q1 FY26 earnings report scheduled for January 29, while Bank of America forecasts a strong December quarter with estimated iPhone sales reaching 85 million units, surpassing previous projections. Social media discussions reveal that Apple has faced an eight-week decline, a rarity since 1982, and concerns regarding the company's debt have surfaced, with bonds trading at approximately 60 cents. Investors are reportedly reallocating funds from Apple to competitors like Nvidia and Micron. Anticipation for significant revenue growth is evident, with estimates ranging from $136.7 billion to $139.2 billion for the upcoming earnings report. Additionally, there is optimism about an AI update for Siri powered by Google's Gemini, potentially enhancing user experience across Apple's product ecosystem.
CSCO | +2.2% | +6.7B
Cisco Systems Inc | Communications Equipment
Cisco Systems Inc. has launched the Cisco 360 Partner Program, a strategic initiative developed over 15 months in collaboration with partners. This program aims to enhance AI-ready data centers, future-proofed workplaces, and digital resilience. It introduces new partner designations, including registered Cisco Partners and Cisco Preferred Partners, facilitating customer access to expertise across Cisco's portfolios. Additionally, the program features the Cisco Partner Incentive (CPI), designed to streamline partner earnings and focus on new specializations in Secure Networking and Secure AI Infrastructure. This initiative was launched on January 26, 2026. Concurrently, Evercore ISI Group upgraded Cisco Systems from In-Line to Outperform, raising the price target from 80 to 100. This upgrade was announced during trading hours, coinciding with a notable increase in Cisco's stock price of 2.2% since Friday.
RYAAY | -3.3% | -2.6B
Ryanair Holdings PLC | Passenger Airlines
Ryanair Holdings PLC reported its fiscal third-quarter results today, showing a profit after tax of 115 million euros, down from 149 million euros year-over-year. This decline was primarily due to an exceptional regulatory charge of 85 million euros related to an Italian fine deemed "baseless." Despite a revenue increase to 3.742 billion euros, earnings per share fell to 0.03 euros, significantly below the analyst estimate of 0.26 euros. Passenger traffic grew by 6% to 47.5 million, with average fares rising by 4%. For fiscal 2026, Ryanair anticipates a cautious profit after tax in the range of 2.13 billion to 2.23 billion euros, amid potential external pressures, including geopolitical conflicts and operational disruptions. Social media discussions reflect ongoing scrutiny of these earnings results and their implications for Ryanair's stock price movement.
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