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Tuesday, June 17

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) +1.8%. 

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, leading to increased tensions in global markets. Reports indicate that Iranian military forces have launched missile strikes against Israeli targets following the assassination of a senior Iranian official by Israeli forces. This situation is contributing to rising oil prices as concerns grow over potential disruptions in supply from this key region.

In economic news, U.S. retail sales for May showed a significant decline of 0.9%, which was worse than market expectations of a 0.7% drop and follows previous declines in consumer spending data due to anticipated tariffs impacting purchasing behavior. Additionally, import prices remained unchanged while export prices fell more than expected; these developments suggest underlying weaknesses within the economy amid tariff-related pressures.

Central bank actions are also influencing market sentiment: The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5% but indicated plans for slower bond tapering starting next year amidst uncertainties regarding trade policies affecting growth prospects globally—this decision aligns with broader cautious stances taken by central banks worldwide ahead of upcoming monetary policy announcements including those from the Federal Reserve later this week.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+2.4%]
The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) saw a notable price increase, reaching $80.68, amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Recent military actions by Israel targeting Iranian energy infrastructure have contributed to significant rises in global energy prices. Brent crude futures surged to approximately $73.54 per barrel, marking a 9.1% increase over the week, while WTI crude oil futures rose by 6.69%. Over the past week, USO recorded an 8.90% gain, reflecting strong performance among oil-related ETFs. This uptick comes as discussions about a potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran have waned, with social media sentiment indicating a negative outlook for stock index futures this morning. Additionally, Brent crude is currently trading at $74.31 per barrel, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) [-0.5%]
U.S. stock futures declined this morning, with the Invesco QQQ Trust Series I experiencing a drop of 0.58%. This decline coincides with rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. President Trump has urged citizens of Tehran to evacuate, hinting at potential U.S. involvement. Major indices, including the Nasdaq 100, also saw decreases, with Nasdaq futures down by 0.46%. Social media discussions reflect concerns over these geopolitical issues, highlighting the G7's stance on Iran and reports of explosions in Tel Aviv. Additionally, significant movements among QQQ's holdings include declines from major contributors such as Microsoft, T-Mobile, Amazon, Apple, and Broadcom. The Dow Jones Index has similarly declined by 0.60%, suggesting a broader market sentiment that may be influencing QQQ's performance today.

FSLR | -16.9% | -2.6B
First Solar Inc | Semiconductors
First Solar Inc's stock has dropped significantly following a proposal from Senate Republicans to phase out tax credits for wind and solar energy by 2028, as part of President Trump's tax and spending bill. The stock fell to approximately $155.10, reflecting a decline of 12%. Other solar companies, including Sunrun and Enphase Energy, also experienced notable decreases in their stock prices. Social media discussions have surfaced concerns regarding the implications of this tax bill, particularly the reduction of solar incentives and the potential for increased trading of put options on First Solar. Additional posts highlighted a recent drop in First Solar's after-hours trading, suggesting heightened market sensitivity to the proposed legislation and its impact on the solar sector.

JBL | +2.8% | +622.2M
Jabil Inc | Electronic Manufacturing Services
Jabil Inc. has raised its fiscal 2025 outlook, projecting revenue of 29 billion and adjusted EPS of 9.33. The company reported strong third-quarter results, with adjusted EPS of 2.55, surpassing estimates of 2.31, and revenue of 7.83 billion, exceeding expectations of 7.07 billion. Operating income for the quarter was reported at 403 million, with adjusted operating income of 420 million, above the estimated 377.1 million. Additionally, Jabil plans to invest approximately 500 million over the next several years to expand its footprint in the Southeast United States to support cloud and AI data center infrastructure customers, with operations expected to begin by mid-2026. Social media discussions highlight Jabil's scheduled earnings report today, coinciding with other significant U.S. economic indicators such as retail sales and industrial production.

TMUS | -4.5% | -11.5B
T-Mobile US Inc | Wireless Telecommunication Services
T-Mobile US Inc is experiencing a notable decline in its stock price, moving in tandem with the broader market and the Wireless Telecommunication Services sector. Reports indicate that SoftBank Group Corp is seeking to raise approximately $4.9 billion through an unregistered overnight block sale of T-Mobile shares, following a previous sale of 21.5 million shares at $224 each, which raised around $4.8 billion for its AI initiatives. This transaction has led to a drop in T-Mobile's stock price, which fell significantly ahead of market opening. SoftBank's stake in T-Mobile will decrease from 7.5% to 5.6% as a result of this sale, marking the largest U.S. equity block sale since a major divestiture by TD.

LEN | +1.9% | +599.9M
Lennar Corp | Homebuilding
Lennar Corp has projected its Q3 2025 homebuilding metrics, anticipating deliveries and new orders between 22,000 and 23,000 homes, with an average sales price estimated at $380,000 to $385,000. The company expects a gross margin on home sales of approximately 18%. In its Q2 2025 earnings report, Lennar reported an adjusted EPS of $1.90, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.94. Revenue for the quarter reached $8.38 billion, surpassing expectations of $8.18 billion. Deliveries totaled 20,131 homes, reflecting a 2% increase year-over-year, while new orders rose by 6%, totaling 22,601 homes. Social media sentiment has highlighted concerns regarding Lennar's quarterly performance and the broader homebuilder sector, noting a significant decline in new orders valued at $619 million despite a modest increase in units and active communities. The earnings call is scheduled for today at 11 am EST.

VERV | +78.3% | +735.3M
Verve Therapeutics Inc | Biotechnology
Eli Lilly is reportedly in advanced negotiations to acquire Verve Therapeutics for up to $1.3 billion. The proposed acquisition includes a cash purchase price of $10.50 per share, totaling approximately $1 billion, along with a contingent value right that could provide an additional $3.00 per share upon achieving certain clinical milestones. This acquisition aims to bolster Lilly's capabilities in genetic medicines, particularly for cardiovascular disease. Verve's lead program, VERVE-102, is currently in a Phase 1b clinical trial and has received Fast Track designation from the FDA. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, pending customary conditions. Following this announcement, Verve's shares have surged significantly in premarket trading, reflecting heightened market activity around the potential deal.

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