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Friday, July 18

Noteworthy macro moves today: Ethereum +4.3%. US Dollar Index -0.4%.

Recent economic data releases have shown a rebound in the U.S. housing market, with June's Housing Starts rising by 4.6% to an annualized rate of 1.321 million units, slightly above expectations of 1.3 million units after a previous decline of nearly 10%. Additionally, Building Permits increased by only 0.2%, reaching an annualized rate of approximately 1.397 million and surpassing forecasts for further growth.

In central bank news, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has reiterated his support for cutting interest rates at the upcoming July meeting due to growing risks in employment and overall economic slowdown; he emphasized that delaying such cuts could necessitate more aggressive actions later on if conditions worsen significantly.

Market sentiment remains cautious as geopolitical tensions persist alongside mixed signals from corporate earnings reports amid ongoing trade negotiations between major economies like the U.S., Japan, and China—particularly concerning tariffs that are affecting inflationary pressures globally while influencing currency valuations across various markets.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) [+4.0%]
Ethereum's price has increased by approximately 4% today, buoyed by significant legislative advancements in cryptocurrency regulation, as the U.S. House of Representatives passed key bills for stablecoins and cryptocurrencies. Additionally, Ethereum spot ETFs have experienced substantial inflows, surpassing Bitcoin amid rising institutional demand. Social media reports highlight BlackRock's acquisition of $546.7 million worth of ETH, signaling strong institutional interest. SharpLink Gaming's announcement to raise $5 billion for further ETH acquisitions reinforces this trend. Furthermore, Ethereum has surpassed a $430 billion market cap and breached the $3,600 mark, its highest price since January. Notably, BlackRock's ETH ETFs have seen larger inflows than their Bitcoin counterparts, reflecting a notable shift in focus toward Ethereum.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) [+1.2%]
Oil prices have risen following drone attacks on Iraqi oil fields in Kurdistan, which resulted in production suspensions. This, along with new EU sanctions against Russia, has contributed to a tighter supply outlook for crude oil. U.S. Treasury yields have also fallen amid strong domestic economic data and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, supporting energy sector performance. Within the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), Chevron emerged as a top contributor with a significant increase in its stock price after clearing a major hurdle in its $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corp. Conversely, Exxon faced a setback due to the ruling favoring Chevron. Additionally, Valero Energy Corp declared a quarterly dividend, further reflecting positive developments within the sector.

HES | 7.4% | +3.7B
Hess Corp | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Hess Corp's shares have risen significantly following a favorable arbitration ruling concerning its rights related to the Stabroek block in Guyana. The panel ruled in favor of Hess in its dispute with Exxon Mobil, allowing Chevron's $53 billion acquisition of Hess to proceed. This decision alleviates concerns over potential strategic uncertainty for both companies. Notably, Chevron's CEO had previously stated that the company would abandon the acquisition if Hess lost the arbitration case. The ruling is expected to enhance operational clarity and future prospects for Hess within the industry.

CVX | +3.9% | +11.4B
Chevron Corp | Integrated Oil & Gas
Chevron Corp's $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corp has received clearance following a favorable arbitration ruling from the International Chamber of Commerce. This ruling dismissed Exxon's claim regarding a right of first refusal on Hess's stake in the Stabroek block in Guyana, marking a significant victory for Chevron. CEO Mike Wirth had previously stated that the acquisition would be abandoned if the ruling were unfavorable. The deal, announced over 20 months ago, can now progress without the uncertainty of arbitration. Concurrently, Hess Corp has seen a notable increase in its stock price, which may correlate with Chevron's movement. Additionally, social media discussions have highlighted this arbitration victory, emphasizing access to over 11 billion barrels of oil in Guyana, thus facilitating the Chevron-Hess deal.

IBKR | 5.6% | +1.5B
Interactive Brokers Group Inc | Investment Banking & Brokerage
Interactive Brokers Group Inc. reported its second-quarter results for 2025, revealing net income of $224 million and revenue of $1.48 billion. This revenue exceeded expectations, reflecting a year-over-year increase. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.51, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate. Net interest income reached $860 million, above estimates, while commission revenue was reported at $516 million, marking a significant year-over-year increase. Following the earnings announcement, the stock experienced a positive market reaction, rising over 4% in after-hours trading. Social media discussions highlighted the company's robust financial performance and expanding profit margins compared to competitors. As of this morning, the stock price stood at $59.43, up by approximately 3%. Average customer margin loans were reported at $60.93 billion, with total customer accounts reaching 3.87 million.

NFLX | -2.8% | -15.1B
Netflix Inc | Movies & Entertainment
Netflix reported its second quarter earnings, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of 7.19, surpassing the consensus estimate of 7.06, and revenue of 11.08 billion, exceeding expectations of 11.04 billion. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of 44.8 billion to 45.2 billion, up from previous estimates. Year-over-year revenue increased by 16%, with net income reaching a record 3.1 billion, up 46%. Despite these strong results, shares fell approximately 2% in after-hours trading. The decline occurred alongside projections of a decrease in operating margin for the second half of 2025 due to rising content amortization and marketing costs. Additionally, analysts from KGI Securities downgraded Netflix to Neutral with a price target of 1,350 shortly after the earnings report, reflecting mixed market sentiments despite the solid performance metrics.

MMM | +2.6% | +2.4B
3M Co | Industrial Conglomerates
3M Co reported its second-quarter 2025 results, revealing adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 2.16, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2.01 by a notable margin. This figure marks an increase compared to the 1.93 EPS reported in the same quarter last year. The company achieved net sales of 6.20 billion, surpassing expectations of 6.09 billion and reflecting a year-over-year rise. Additionally, 3M raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of 7.75 to 8.00, up from the prior estimate of 7.60 to 7.90. The updated forecast anticipates a projected 2.5% growth in sales for the fiscal year. Social media discussions are highlighting these results, contributing to the stock's pre-market movement of approximately 3.5%.

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