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Monday, May 5

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold +2.5%. US Dollar Index -0.5%. S&P 500 Index (US) -0.9%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.B) -2.8%. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) -1.6%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) -1.2%. 

Gold prices have surged above $3,300 amid rising geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand. This increase comes as the U.S. dollar weakens against major currencies, particularly following comments from President Trump regarding potential trade deals with several countries but no immediate plans to meet with Chinese officials.

U.S. stock futures are indicating a lower open after a nine-day winning streak for the S&P 500 index ended on Friday; profit-taking is expected to contribute to this decline in early trading today. The market remains cautious ahead of key economic data releases later this week, including the ISM Services PMI report, which could provide insights into service sector activity amidst ongoing tariff concerns.

The Federal Reserve's upcoming two-day policy meeting starting tomorrow has heightened focus among investors who anticipate that interest rates will remain unchanged despite calls from Trump for cuts due to perceived improvements in inflation metrics and employment figures reported last week showing stronger-than-expected job growth.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+2.6%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has seen a notable price increase of 2.6% since Friday, with gold prices recently trading at approximately 3,322 per ounce. This rise aligns with mixed market performances across Asia and Europe, where gold gained amid declining oil prices following OPEC+'s production increase. Social media discussions have highlighted rising gold prices attributed to dollar weakness and concerns regarding the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. Spot gold reached 3,300 per ounce for the first time since late April, reflecting nearly a 2% intraday increase. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies have driven demand for gold as an alternative investment during this turbulent period.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) [-0.8%]
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has seen a decline of 0.8% since Friday. Social media discussions highlighted that U.S. stock futures opened lower as investors prepared for a busy week, which includes the upcoming FOMC meeting and key earnings reports. The S&P 500 recently experienced its best winning streak in two decades, yet concerns arose following President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on foreign-produced movies, which has negatively impacted Netflix Inc. Additionally, OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production may lead to oversupply issues. Mixed labor data showing strong job growth alongside persistent inflationary pressures is contributing to negative market sentiment. The top contributors to SPY's performance, including NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and NFLX, all experienced declines in their stock prices. This morning, sentiment towards SPY was described as positive by a user on social media.

NFLX | -5.4% | -25.6B
Netflix Inc | Movies & Entertainment
Netflix Inc. is experiencing a significant decline in premarket trading, largely in line with the broader market and the Movies & Entertainment sector. This drop follows President Trump's announcement of a proposed 100% tariff on foreign-produced films, which has raised concerns about potential financial burdens on Netflix subscribers. Economist Peter Schiff has criticized the practicality of such tariffs, suggesting they may act as an indirect tax on American consumers. The announcement coincides with worries regarding foreign film production incentives, as nearly half of high-budget projects were filmed outside the U.S. in 2023. Social media discussions reflect skepticism about Netflix's resilience amidst these developments, particularly given that the company produces a substantial portion of its content internationally. In this context, Netflix shares are reported to be down significantly in premarket trading.

DIS | -3.1% | -5.1B
Walt Disney Co | Movies & Entertainment
Walt Disney Co's stock has declined in tandem with the broader market and the Movies & Entertainment sector, reflecting a significant downward trend. Despite the recent box office success of "Thunderbolts," which grossed $76 million domestically, the stock price has not benefitted, highlighting overarching concerns among investors. Additionally, social media discussions noted a 1.8% drop in Disney's stock, correlated with comments from former President Donald Trump regarding potential tariffs on films produced overseas. Looking ahead, Disney is set to announce its Q2 FY2025 earnings before the market opens on May 7, 2025, with an EPS estimate of $1.2 and a revenue estimate of $23.1 billion.

WBD | -3.5% | -697.8M
Warner Bros Discovery Inc | Movies & Entertainment
Warner Bros Discovery Inc. is facing potential headwinds following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on foreign-made movies, aimed at addressing concerns about the industry's competitiveness due to international incentives. This policy may affect both traditional theatrical releases and streaming services, raising questions about its broader implications for companies in the film and television sector, including Warner Bros Discovery. The company is also preparing to announce its Q1 FY2025 earnings, with an expected earnings per share of -0.12, a notable improvement from the previous estimate of -0.40. Revenue estimates have been adjusted to 9.7 billion, down from a prior expectation of 10 billion, ahead of the market opening on May 8, 2025.

GOLD | +2.9% | +948.4M
Barrick Gold Corp | Gold
Barrick Gold Corp is experiencing upward movement, aligning with a surge in the gold sector. Gold prices have increased significantly, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and a weaker U.S. dollar. Spot gold has reached notable levels, influenced by concerns surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations and escalating geopolitical risks. In a strategic shift, Barrick has agreed to sell its 50% stake in the Donlin project in Alaska for $1 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in advancing gold projects. The company is also seeking buyers for its Hemlo mine in Canada and divesting smaller gold mines in Africa, amid reports of layoffs at its Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali. These developments coincide with expectations of steady interest rates ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge against economic instability.

BP | +2.9% | +13.9B
BP PLC | Integrated Oil & Gas
Shell Plc is reportedly assessing the possibility of acquiring BP Plc, with discussions intensifying in recent weeks. The company is consulting with advisers to evaluate the merits of such a move but is waiting for further declines in BP's stock and oil prices before making a final decision. The deliberations remain in early stages, and Shell may also consider share buybacks and smaller acquisitions instead of pursuing a large merger. Social media discussions have highlighted this potential acquisition, with users noting that Shell is seriously weighing a takeover amidst pressures within the energy sector. Posts referenced reports indicating that Shell has been evaluating the feasibility and advantages of acquiring BP more seriously in recent weeks, focusing on implications for BP's equity in the current market conditions. BP did not respond to requests for comment on the situation.

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