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Wednesday, February 5

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today: Ethereum +3.2%. US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.3%. US Dollar Index -0.3%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) -7.4%. Alphabet Inc (GOOG) -7.2%. Broadcom Inc (AVGO) +4.1%. 

Recent economic data releases have highlighted a mixed picture for the U.S. economy, with private sector employment rising by 183K in January, surpassing expectations of 150K. However, this positive news is tempered by a widening trade deficit that reached $98.4 billion in December due to falling exports and increasing imports ahead of potential tariffs from President Trump's administration.

In response to ongoing tariff tensions between the United States and China—where retaliatory measures include new Chinese tariffs on various American goods—the U.S. Dollar Index has declined significantly as market participants reassess risk premiums associated with these geopolitical developments. The uncertainty surrounding future trade policies continues to weigh heavily on investor sentiment across global markets.

Additionally, gold prices are reaching record highs amid declining Treasury yields driven by fears over inflationary pressures linked to both domestic labor costs and international trade disputes; meanwhile, major equity indices like the Nasdaq are experiencing downward pressure following disappointing earnings reports from tech giants such as Alphabet Inc., further contributing to cautious trading conditions among investors today.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) [-0.6%]
In pre-market trading, Invesco QQQ Trust Series I has experienced a decline, reflecting a drop attributed to disappointing earnings from major technology companies. Alphabet Inc. reported a significant decrease in its stock price, while Advanced Micro Devices also underperformed, contributing to QQQ's fall of nearly 0.83%. Additionally, there are concerns regarding potential punitive actions from the European Union against Big Tech, which may further affect market sentiment. Social media discussions highlighted the recent downturn in U.S. stock futures following these earnings results, alongside warnings from Jim Rickards about a possible U.S. recession that could impact stock valuations. Among QQQ's holdings, key contributors to the decline included GOOGL, GOOG, and AMD, which all saw substantial drops in their stock prices after their respective earnings reports. The Dow Jones Index also mirrored this sentiment with a slight decrease, correlating with QQQ's movement.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+0.7%]
Gold prices have reached new all-time highs, trading at approximately 2,875 per ounce, reflecting a surge driven by increased safe-haven demand amid rising U.S.-China trade tensions and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts following disappointing labor market data. Social media discussions have noted that global gold demand is projected to reach a record 4,974.5 tonnes in 2024, fueled by heightened investment interest. Additionally, there has been a notable surge in futures contracts opting for delivery, indicating increased market activity related to gold. Earlier price movements included gold futures rising to 2,871.60 per troy ounce, following a peak of 2,874.50 during European trading. This backdrop of bullish sentiment surrounding gold is likely benefiting entities such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).

GOOG | -7.2% | -171.9B
Alphabet Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Alphabet Inc's stock price has dropped significantly following its fourth-quarter earnings report released on February 4, 2025. The company reported earnings per share of $2.15, slightly exceeding the estimate of $2.12, while revenue came in at $96.47 billion, falling short of the $96.69 billion consensus. Notably, Google Cloud revenue reached $11.96 billion, missing expectations of $12.19 billion. In after-hours trading, Alphabet's Class A shares experienced a decline of over 7%. Analysts have also adjusted their price targets downward, with Scotiabank lowering its target from 240 to 232. Concurrently, CEO Sundar Pichai announced plans for substantial capital expenditures of approximately $75 billion for 2025, despite mixed results in revenue growth and concerns regarding the deceleration in cloud revenue growth, which was reported at 30%, down from 35% in the previous quarter.

AMD | -9.8% | -17.2B
Advanced Micro Devices Inc | Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) has experienced significant downward pressure on its stock, declining nearly 10% following the release of its fourth-quarter earnings on February 4, 2025. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.09 and revenue of $7.66 billion, both exceeding analyst expectations. Despite these positive metrics, concerns emerged regarding a notable decline in gaming revenue, which dropped significantly year-over-year. Analysts have lowered their price targets for AMD, with some adjusting them to as low as $130. Additionally, the company anticipates first-quarter revenue in the range of $6.8 billion to $7.4 billion, reflecting a sequential decline. Social media discussions highlighted CEO Lisa Su's confidence in her leadership, while concerns about data center sales and increased expenses were prevalent among users. The European Union is also reviewing AMD's $5 billion merger deal with ZT Systems, with a deadline set for March 12 for the initial probe completion.

NVO | +3.7% | +10.7B
Novo Nordisk A/S | Pharmaceuticals
Novo Nordisk A/S reported its fourth-quarter earnings, revealing a profit of 6.34 Danish kroner per share, exceeding analyst expectations of 5.82 kroner. Sales reached 85.68 billion kroner, surpassing estimates of 79.73 billion kroner. The company projected sales growth for 2025 between 16% and 24% at constant exchange rates, alongside expected operating profit growth of 19% to 27%. Wegovy sales amounted to 19.87 billion kroner, slightly below the consensus estimate of 20.04 billion kroner, while Ozempic sales rose to 33.85 billion kroner, surpassing the expected 33.34 billion kroner. Social media discussions highlighted a 107% surge in Wegovy sales, contributing to a significant earnings beat and a notable increase in stock price. Additionally, initial FY25 revenue guidance was set at DKK 75-85 billion. Pre-market activity suggested a potential increase in stock value following these announcements.

UBER | -5.2% | -7.2B
Uber Technologies Inc | Passenger Ground Transportation
Uber Technologies Inc. reported its fourth-quarter earnings, revealing a revenue of $12 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $11.77 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 20%. Gross bookings reached $44.2 billion, exceeding projections, while net income rose to $6.88 billion, bolstered by a $6.4 billion tax valuation release. Despite these strong results, the company's first-quarter 2025 outlook forecasts gross bookings between $42 billion and $43.5 billion, falling short of Wall Street expectations. Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $1.79 billion to $1.89 billion, slightly below the anticipated $1.85 billion. Following the earnings report, the stock experienced a decline of nearly 7% in premarket trading. Additionally, Uber announced plans to launch Waymo robotaxis exclusively on its app in Austin, Texas, and reported mobility bookings of $22.80 billion, which also exceeded estimates.

GSK | +6.1% | +9.2B
GSK plc | Pharmaceuticals
GSK plc reported its fourth-quarter financial results, revealing sales of £8.12 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of £7.83 billion, and marking a 4% increase at constant currency. The company announced a core earnings per share (EPS) of 23.2 pence, exceeding the consensus estimate of 20.6 pence, despite a 10% decline year-on-year. GSK plans a £2 billion share buyback program over the next 18 months and raised its midterm sales outlook to over £40 billion by 2031. For 2025, GSK expects sales growth of 3% to 5% and core operating profit growth of 6% to 8%. Conversations on social media highlighted GSK's adjusted EPS of £0.23 and revenues of £8.12 billion, alongside discussions about the company's focus on a 30+ valent Pneumococcal vaccine expected to begin trials in 2025.

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