Gold ETFs Jump After Weak Payrolls, DAX Slides as U.S. Stocks Stay Firm | MarketReader Minute

U.S. stocks rise ahead of jobs report despite disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls data, while European markets diverge with Germany's industrial production showing mixed signals.

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Friday, August 07

Noteworthy macro moves today: DAX 30 Index (Germany) -3.4%. US 2Y Treasury Bond Index +0.2%. US 10Y Treasury Bond Index +0.5%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock (SPCX) +1.2%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) -1.1%. Walmart Inc (WMT) -0.8%.

Global equity indices are trading mixed, with U.S. stocks higher while European markets show divergence, particularly with the DAX down significantly by 3.4%. The U.S. market is buoyed by positive sentiment ahead of the jobs report, which is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.

In the U.S., the Non-Farm Payrolls report released today showed an unexpected decline of 23k jobs in July, following a revised gain of just 20k in June and missing forecasts for an increase of 80k. This disappointing data has raised concerns about labor market strength and may influence future Fed rate decisions.

Also released today, average hourly earnings rose by only $0.02 to $37.62 in July, falling short of expectations for a larger increase of $0.30 and indicating weaker wage growth amid declining labor force participation at 61.4%, its lowest since early 2021.

In Europe, Germany's industrial production increased by 0.2% month-on-month in June, exceeding expectations but still reflecting mixed economic signals as imports surged significantly more than exports during the same period.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) [+5.7%]
Gold prices have surged past $4,250 per ounce due to heightened demand from Chinese institutional buying and significant ETF inflows. This increase is linked to eased inflation concerns amid geopolitical tensions involving Iran, which have shifted market sentiment toward safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, a surprising drop in U.S. non-farm payroll employment by 23,000 jobs for July may influence Federal Reserve interest rate policies, further benefiting gold investments. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF is gaining sharply in pre-market trading, reflecting this positive momentum. Key contributors to the ETF's performance include Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines, and Wheaton Precious Metals, among others, which have posted notable returns. This strong performance aligns with the recent rise in gold prices, contributing to the ETF's upward trajectory since Thursday's close.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+2.7%]
Gold prices have surged above $4,370 per ounce, marking a significant increase amid eased inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. UBS has reiterated its forecast for gold to reach $5,000 per ounce by the first half of 2027, citing increased Chinese institutional buying and ETF inflows as key factors. The bank anticipates a decline in real yields due to easing monetary policy, which would lessen the opportunity cost of holding gold. This bullish sentiment, alongside ongoing central bank demand and a weaker dollar, has contributed to the positive movement in SPDR Gold Shares. In pre-market hours, SPDR Gold Shares are trading higher, reflecting the broader upward trend in gold prices and strong investor demand.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [+2.2%]
The U.S. Labor Department reported a surprising decrease in non-farm payroll employment by 23,000 jobs for July 2026, which contrasts with expectations of job growth. This unexpected dip may influence Federal Reserve policy and investor sentiment towards technology stocks, including those within the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. In pre-market hours, the ETF is trading higher, reflecting strong interest ahead of the market open. The Nasdaq 100 Index has also seen an increase, aligning with the positive performance of SMH, which has benefitted from significant contributions from its largest holdings, including Nvidia and Micron.

NET | +16.1% | +18.1B
Cloudflare Inc | Information Technology

Cloudflare Inc is experiencing significant pre-market momentum following its robust second-quarter earnings report, which revealed a 36% year-over-year revenue increase to $696.1 million, surpassing analyst expectations. The company raised its fiscal year 2026 guidance for revenue to between $2.864 billion and $2.87 billion, along with adjusted EPS guidance of $1.25-$1.26, both above consensus estimates. Analysts have responded positively, with RBC Capital and KeyBanc raising their price targets to $346 and $375, respectively, citing Cloudflare's strong positioning in the growing AI infrastructure market. Additionally, the company's "Workers" product family was highlighted as the fastest-growing segment, contributing to a favorable sentiment around its evolving role in internet infrastructure amid rising demand for AI applications. Despite a recent pullback earlier in the session, shares are still trading higher since Thursday's close.

TEAM | +30.9% | +11.6B
Atlassian Corp | Information Technology

Atlassian Corp has seen significant upward momentum in pre-market trading, driven by multiple analysts raising their price targets. KeyBanc increased its target to $185, Wells Fargo to $180, and Oppenheimer to $200, reflecting strong confidence in the company's outlook. Additionally, CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes announced plans to purchase up to $250 million in stock through open market transactions, further enhancing positive sentiment. The company recently reported Q4 earnings of $1.87 per share, exceeding expectations, with revenues rising 27.6% year-over-year to $1.77 billion. Atlassian also provided optimistic guidance for Q1, anticipating revenue between $1.705 billion and $1.715 billion, above consensus estimates. Following these developments, shares are gaining as investor interest remains robust.

TWLO | +18.2% | +7.1B
Twilio Inc | Information Technology

Twilio Inc's stock is advancing sharply in pre-market trading following several analyst upgrades and positive assessments of its recent quarterly performance. Needham reaffirmed its Buy rating and raised its price target to $280, citing strong financial results. Oppenheimer and Rosenblatt also increased their price targets to $275, reflecting an improved outlook after Twilio reported second-quarter revenues of $1.50 billion, surpassing expectations. The company’s guidance for third-quarter revenue between $1.505 billion and $1.515 billion further supports this positive momentum. Additionally, Twilio reported a 22% year-over-year revenue increase and an adjusted EPS of $1.47, exceeding estimates. These developments have heightened investor confidence in Twilio's prospects, contributing to the stock's notable pre-market increase.

NTRA | +14.8% | +5.6B
Natera Inc | Health Care

Natera Inc reported strong second-quarter results for 2026, with revenues of $752.8 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $662.14 million. The adjusted earnings per share came in at a loss of $0.47, better than the anticipated loss of $0.49. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $2.85 billion and $2.91 billion, exceeding prior forecasts. Analysts responded positively, with BTIG maintaining a Buy rating and RBC Capital increasing its price target to $350 from $275. Despite a pullback earlier in the session, shares are trading higher since Thursday's close, reflecting the favorable outlook and performance reported.

FROG | +16.5% | +1.7B
Jfrog Ltd | Information Technology

Jfrog Ltd is experiencing a notable increase in pre-market trading following the company's strong second-quarter results reported on August 6, 2026. The firm achieved revenues of $163.8 million, exceeding analyst expectations of $155.6 million, and reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.27, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.24. Analysts have responded positively, with KeyBanc raising its price target to $114 and both Oppenheimer and Needham increasing theirs to $115, reflecting optimism about Jfrog's future performance. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $648 million and $652 million, exceeding prior estimates. Additionally, cloud revenue reached $87.5 million, marking a 53% year-over-year increase, and the net dollar retention rate improved to 121%.

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