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Wednesday, January 7

Noteworthy macro moves today: Copper -1.8%. Bitcoin -1.7%. Gold -1.0%. 

Global equity markets are trading lower as investors react to disappointing U.S. employment data and mixed economic signals from Europe. The ADP Employment Change report revealed that the U.S. private sector added only 41,000 jobs in December, falling short of expectations for a gain of approximately 47,000 jobs. This has raised concerns about the strength of the labor market and potential implications for future Federal Reserve policy.

In Europe, inflation data showed a slight easing in consumer price growth, with Eurozone inflation at 2.0% in December, aligning with market expectations but still above the European Central Bank's target. This has led to cautious sentiment among investors regarding potential interest rate adjustments by the ECB amid ongoing economic uncertainties highlighted by weaker retail sales and mixed employment figures from Germany.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions continue to influence market dynamics, particularly following recent developments involving Venezuela's oil exports and rising concerns over trade relations between China and Japan. These factors have contributed to a generally negative tone across global equity indices today.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [-1.1%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has seen a price drop of approximately 1.0% in pre-market trading. Bernstein has raised its gold price target for 2026 to $4,180 per ounce, although it cautions that the upside potential may be limited due to a slowdown in global central bank purchases. Notably, ETF inflows have accelerated but are described as pro-cyclical, amplifying both price increases and declines. Social media discussions highlight China's continuous addition to its gold reserves for 14 months, which may influence gold prices. Concurrently, oil prices have decreased following a U.S.-Venezuela agreement on crude oil exports, contributing to a stronger dollar and impacting gold's daily return. Eurozone inflation has also fallen back to 2%, aligning with expectations and potentially affecting the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, silver has declined significantly, reflecting broader market sentiment that could impact GLD's performance.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-1.7%]
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has experienced a decline of approximately 1.7% today. This drop coincides with a recent agreement between the United States and Venezuela, allowing for up to $2 billion in Venezuelan crude oil exports, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions. Concurrently, rising inflation concerns across various regions are influencing market behavior towards cryptocurrencies. On the social media front, Morgan Stanley has filed S-1 registrations for a Bitcoin Trust and Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, marking a notable expansion into crypto offerings. Additionally, there are reports of a 76% probability of Bitcoin reaching $95,000 by January. Ethereum (ETH/USD) has also seen a decline of over 2%, which may be affecting Bitcoin's price movement due to their historical correlation. Furthermore, recent updates indicate that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have faced significant net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs have experienced inflows.

ASTS | -6.6% | -1.6B
AST SpaceMobile Inc | Alternative Carriers
AST SpaceMobile Inc has seen a notable decline of 6.6% following a downgrade to "sector underperform" by Scotiabank, which was announced just minutes ago. This downgrade reflects valuation concerns and highlights competitive challenges posed by Starlink's leadership in the space sector. Additionally, social media discussions reveal a mix of sentiment; while some users noted recent positive indicators and an all-time high for the stock, skepticism remains regarding its current valuation. The juxtaposition of a significant monthly performance increase with the downgrade underscores the complexities facing AST SpaceMobile.

FSLR | -4.3% | -1.2B
First Solar Inc | Semiconductors
First Solar Inc has seen significant analyst activity today. Fourteen analysts provided mixed opinions, with a majority remaining bullish despite some downgrades. Jefferies downgraded the stock to "Hold" with a price target of 260, while Deutsche Bank raised its target to 300. The average price target among analysts now stands at approximately 272.6, reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates. Financial metrics reveal strong revenue growth over the last three months, although the company's return on equity and return on assets remain below industry standards. Additionally, social media discussions highlighted Jefferies' downgrade from Buy to Hold, further contributing to the current market dynamics surrounding First Solar.

VLO | +2.9% | +1.7B
Valero Energy Corp | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Valero Energy Corp is experiencing a notable price increase, aligning with the broader momentum in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector. Recent developments regarding Valero's Benicia refinery have emerged, as Governor Gavin Newsom announced the idling of operations at the facility. This decision includes a commitment to ensure gasoline supply through April 2026, with plans for imports thereafter. This strategic move aims to maintain Valero's supply chain in the Bay Area market. Additionally, there are reports of an indefinite continuation of oil sales from Venezuela and a reduction in sanctions, which may positively influence market dynamics for Valero. Social media discussions highlight the potential advantages for U.S. refiners, including Valero, from Venezuela's oil reserves, particularly in refining heavy crude, despite ongoing political uncertainties in the region.

ALB | +2.4% | +463.5M
Albemarle Corp | Specialty Chemicals
Albemarle Corp is experiencing an upward price movement, attributed to significant gains in the Specialty Chemicals sub-sector. Recent analyst reviews indicate a shift in sentiment, with 20 analysts expressing varied opinions and a notable increase in bullish ratings. The average 12-month price target has risen sharply to 123.9 from 98.11. Noteworthy upgrades include Ben Kallo of Baird raising his target to 210.00 from 113.00, and Laurence Alexander of Jefferies increasing his target to 167.00 from 152.00. Additionally, a recent upgrade to "outperform" by Baird, linked to rising lithium prices and robust demand, has contributed to a 2% increase in Albemarle's stock price.

CSGP | +2.9% | +815.1M
CoStar Group Inc | Real Estate Services
CoStar Group Inc. has announced a new $1.5 billion share repurchase program, reinforcing its commitment to returning capital to shareholders. This follows the completion of a previous $500 million buyback in 2025. The company has set its financial outlook for fiscal year 2026, projecting revenues between $3.78 billion and $3.82 billion, reflecting an 18% year-over-year growth. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to range from $1.22 to $1.33, while adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to expand significantly, reaching between $740 million and $800 million for the same period.

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