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Thursday, January 15

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) -2.9%. Copper -2.6%. Nasdaq 100 Index (US) +1.2%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Broadcom Inc (AVGO) +2.7%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) -1.4%. 

Global equity markets are trading higher as investors react positively to a series of stronger-than-expected economic data releases from the U.S. Initial jobless claims fell to a two-year low of 198K, significantly below forecasts of an increase to 215K. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surged to a reading of 12.6 from a previous -8.8, indicating improved manufacturing conditions and contributing to overall market optimism.

In the UK, GDP growth for November was reported at +0.3%, exceeding expectations of +0.1% and reversing a prior contraction. This positive economic performance was supported by strong gains in services and manufacturing output; however, construction output declined sharply by -1.3%, which may temper some enthusiasm regarding the sustainability of this growth.

Meanwhile, oil prices have dropped sharply by nearly -2.9%, reflecting easing geopolitical tensions following comments from President Trump regarding Iran's recent actions. This decline in oil prices is impacting energy stocks negatively while technology shares are benefiting from robust earnings reports like that from TSMC, which has bolstered investor sentiment towards AI-related sectors amidst ongoing market volatility.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [+3.3%]
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported a significant year-over-year increase in net income for Q4, along with a strong revenue growth forecast for 2026. TSMC's Q3 revenue rose sharply, leading to a 5.9% rise in its shares during premarket trading. This positive momentum contributed to a 3% increase in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) overnight. Notably, President Trump's recent imposition of a 25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors may impact the sector significantly. Social media discussions highlighted TSMC's financial results and their potential influence on SMH, while chip equipment stocks led a sector rally following TSMC's optimistic capital spending plans. The Nasdaq 100 Index also rose, reflecting broader market sentiment that often influences the semiconductor sector, coinciding with SMH's increase of 3.2%.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [-1.4%]
U.S. crude futures have declined, trading around 60.80 per barrel, reflecting broader market sentiment affecting United States Oil Fund LP. President Trump announced that tensions with Iran have eased, downplaying the likelihood of military action, which coincided with a significant drop in West Texas Intermediate crude prices to approximately 59.92 per barrel. This easing of geopolitical tensions has contributed to the reduction in oil prices. Additionally, Brent crude futures have also fallen, now at about 64.53 per barrel, amid reports of reduced military conflict concerns. Furthermore, U.S. crude stocks rose significantly last week, adding downward pressure on oil prices and impacting market dynamics surrounding oil-related investments, including United States Oil Fund LP.

TSM | +5.5% | +492.2B
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd | Semiconductors
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. reported robust fourth-quarter results, with net income rising 35% year-over-year to NT$505.74 billion, exceeding analyst expectations. Revenue for the quarter reached NT$1.046 trillion, a 20.5% increase from the previous year, also surpassing consensus estimates. The company anticipates first-quarter revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with gross margins projected at 63-65%. Notably, advanced technologies, including 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer processes, accounted for 77% of total wafer revenue. Additionally, TSMC announced a 20% increase in quarterly dividends to NT$6 per share and plans capital expenditures of $52-$56 billion in 2026 to meet demand in the AI sector. Recent social media discussions highlighted these strong earnings and optimistic forecasts, contributing to TSM's stock rising significantly in pre-market trading.

LRCX | +8.4% | +2.5B
Lam Research Corp | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Lam Research Corp has experienced a significant price increase, aligning with positive movements in the Semiconductor Materials & Equipment sector. Notably, Wells Fargo upgraded the company to "overweight" with a price target of 250, while RBC Capital initiated coverage with an "outperform" rating. Both recommendations were published recently, reflecting enhanced confidence in Lam Research's prospects. On social media, RBC Capital's "outperform" recommendation has garnered attention, particularly given the broader semiconductor industry's anticipated growth, including a projected 78% revenue increase in the memory sector for 2024. The overall analyst consensus shows 37 buy recommendations, 12 holds, and one sell for Lam Research.

AMAT | +8.3% | +22.4B
Applied Materials Inc | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Applied Materials Inc is experiencing a significant price increase, attributed to the broader positive movement within the Semiconductor Materials & Equipment sector. Recently, Wells Fargo raised its price target for the company to 350 from 290 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Additionally, Barclays has upgraded Applied Materials to an Overweight rating with a new price target of 360. RBC Capital has initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a price target of 385. These upgrades reflect a strong outlook for Applied Materials and coincide with its stock's performance, which has outpaced the SOX index despite underperforming relative to US equipment peers over the past year due to various market challenges.

BSX | -3.5% | -4.7B
Boston Scientific Corp | Health Care Equipment
Boston Scientific Corp has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Penumbra, Inc. for approximately $14.5 billion, with Penumbra shareholders set to receive $374 per share in cash or stock. The transaction will be financed with about $11 billion in cash sourced from existing funds and new debt. This acquisition is projected to dilute adjusted earnings per share by $0.06 to $0.08 in the first year after closing, with expectations of returning to neutrality or slight accretion in the subsequent year. Following this announcement, Boston Scientific's stock has declined significantly. Social media discussions highlight the anticipated impact on adjusted EPS and Penumbra's revenue guidance for FY25, which projects approximately $1.4 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 17% to 18%.

PEN | +13.1% | +1.8B
Penumbra Inc | Health Care Equipment
Penumbra, Inc. reported preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with fourth-quarter revenue estimated between $383 million and $384.8 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of approximately 21% to 22%. For the full year, revenue is projected at approximately $1.4 billion, indicating growth of about 17% to 18% compared to 2024. The gross margin for the fourth quarter is estimated between 67.9% and 68.1%. Concurrently, Boston Scientific announced a definitive agreement to acquire Penumbra for $374 per share, valuing the transaction at approximately $14.5 billion. This deal is expected to be financed through a combination of cash and new debt, with completion anticipated in 2026, pending shareholder approval and customary conditions. Social media discussions have surged following this acquisition announcement, with users expressing surprise and excitement.

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