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Friday, August 9

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: USD/CNH -0.3%. Nasdaq 100 Index (US) -0.8%. Bitcoin -1.9%. Some of the largest moves among US mega-cap stocks include: Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) -1.9%. Alphabet Inc (GOOG) -1.8%. Meta Platforms Inc (META) -1.6%. 

Recent economic data from Canada revealed a surprising decline in employment for the second consecutive month, with net job losses of 2.8K against expectations of a significant increase. Despite this, Canada's unemployment rate held steady at 6.4%, slightly better than anticipated but still indicating ongoing labor market softness.

China's inflation figures showed an unexpected rise to 0.5% year-on-year in July, marking the highest level since February and surpassing forecasts of 0.3%. This uptick suggests some recovery in domestic demand following recent interest rate cuts by China's central bank; however, producer prices continued their downward trend albeit less sharply than expected.

Global markets have been experiencing volatility driven by weak US economic data that has heightened recession fears and triggered sell-offs across various asset classes earlier this week. However, there are signs of stabilization as traders digest these developments alongside comments from Federal Reserve officials hinting at potential future rate adjustments based on incoming economic indicators.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-1.9%]
Bitcoin has dropped significantly, moving down by 1.7% since Thursday. Earlier today, it experienced a brief surge past $62,000, driven by speculation surrounding pro-cryptocurrency announcements from Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump. This spike was also influenced by positive sentiment in the stock market and an uptick in new daily Bitcoin addresses, suggesting renewed retail interest. Despite this volatility, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to apply downward pressure on Bitcoin and equity indices due to concerns about global financial stability. In related movements, Ethereum has declined by 1.75%, reflecting a strong correlation with Bitcoin's performance.

IShares MSCI Brazil ETF [+1.8%]
Brazil's Petrobras has obtained environmental licenses for production increases at the Mero and Buzios offshore oil fields, anticipated to significantly enhance Brazil’s total daily oil equivalent production. This development is pivotal for the economic outlook of Brazilian firms represented in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ). Concurrently, positive labor market data from the U.S., marked by a decrease in initial jobless claims, has alleviated global recession fears, potentially benefiting emerging markets like Brazil. Additionally, the US 10Y Treasury Bond has risen, reflecting broader market sentiment and possibly correlating with the recent 1.1% increase in EWZ.

TTWO |+6.4%|+1.6B
Take-Two Interactive Software reported first-quarter net bookings of $1.22 billion, reflecting a slight year-over-year increase. GAAP net revenue reached $1.34 billion. The company maintained its full-year net bookings outlook for fiscal 2025, projecting between $5.55 billion and $5.65 billion. For the second quarter, net bookings are anticipated to be between $1.42 billion and $1.47 billion, with an expected loss per share of $2.15 to $2.30. The firm confirmed the release of "Grand Theft Auto VI" in Fall 2025 and stated that ongoing industry strikes will not affect titles in development. In its earnings report, Take-Two exceeded expectations with an EPS of $0.05 against a forecast of $0.02, while revenues matched expectations at $1.2 billion. Subsequently, the company raised its EPS guidance for fiscal 2025 to a range of $2.35 to $2.60.

EXPE | +8.4% | +1.4B
Expedia Group reported strong second-quarter results, with revenue of $3.558 billion exceeding estimates of $3.534 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $3.51 surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.06. This reflects a year-over-year revenue increase of 6% and a notable rise in earnings per share of 21.45%. Gross bookings also grew by 6%, totaling $28.8 billion, while lodging gross bookings increased by 8%. The company highlighted robust performance in its consumer brands but acknowledged a softening in travel demand in July, leading to revised expectations for the remainder of the year. Following the earnings report, Expedia set its revenue guidance for Q3 FY2024 between $4.0 billion and $4.1 billion. In pre-market trading, Expedia's stock has risen significantly, reflecting the positive earnings results and guidance.

TSM |+2.0%|+87.6B
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. reported a substantial revenue increase for July 2024, with consolidated revenue reaching NT$256.95 billion, reflecting a significant rise compared to the previous year and an increase from June. For the year-to-date period from January to July, TSMC's revenue totaled NT$1,523.11 billion, marking robust year-over-year growth. In response to this performance, TSMC has raised its full-year revenue forecast, attributing the surge to strong demand for AI-related chips. In pre-market trading, TSMC shares rose notably, reaching $170.38, up from $164.55. Analysts project continued growth, with expectations of a substantial revenue increase for the quarter, underscoring TSMC's pivotal role in the AI chip market.

TTD |+5.1% | +2.3B
Trade Desk Inc. reported robust second-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share of 0.39, exceeding the consensus estimate of 0.35 by a notable margin. Revenue reached 584.55 million, surpassing expectations of 577.80 million and reflecting a significant year-over-year increase. The company issued optimistic guidance for the third quarter, projecting revenue of at least 618 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately 248 million. Analysts responded positively, raising price targets from several firms, including Truist Securities to 108, KeyBanc to 115, and Susquehanna to 135. Additionally, the CEO expressed skepticism regarding Google's cookie deprecation, suggesting strategic implications for the industry. Following these developments, Trade Desk's stock experienced a price increase of 5.3% in pre-market trading.

GOOG |-1.5%|-29.6B
Alphabet Inc's stock has dropped significantly, aligning with a broader decline in the Nasdaq 100 Index, which has also moved lower. This trend reflects a negative sentiment permeating the technology sector. In company-specific news, Google faces allegations of targeting Instagram ads at teenagers on YouTube, reportedly breaching its own policies regarding advertising to minors. The initiative, which aimed to promote Instagram to users aged 13 to 17, has been canceled by Google, which is now investigating the matter. This controversy emerges alongside Google's decision to retain third-party cookies in its Chrome browser and in the context of an upcoming child online safety bill in the U.S. Senate that seeks to hold tech companies accountable for their practices concerning minors.

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