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Monday, April 7

Noteworthy macro moves today: S&P 500 Index (US) -2.5%. Nasdaq 100 Index (US) -2.5%. Copper -3.5%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Tesla Inc (TSLA) -5.8%. NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) -5.4%. Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) -5.2%. 

The global markets are currently experiencing significant turmoil following the announcement of sweeping tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump, which have triggered fears of a prolonged trade war and potential recession. The S&P 500 has seen its worst weekly loss since early in the pandemic, with major indices like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq also suffering steep declines as investors react to escalating tensions between the U.S., China, and other trading partners.

Recent economic data releases further highlight concerns about growth prospects; for instance, Germany's industrial production fell more than expected at -1.3% month-over-month in February while Japan reported declining leading indicators amid deteriorating consumer sentiment. Additionally, Goldman Sachs raised its probability forecast for a U.S. recession from 35% to 45%, reflecting heightened uncertainty stemming from these tariff policies.

In response to this environment of risk aversion driven by geopolitical factors and inflationary pressures linked to tariffs on imports, safe-haven assets such as gold have been fluctuating significantly alongside currency movements—most notably against currencies tied closely with commodities or emerging market economies facing direct impacts from reduced trade flows due to increased duties imposed by both sides involved in ongoing negotiations over tariffs.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-1.9%]
Bitcoin is currently experiencing significant downward pressure, trading around 74,958 earlier today, reflecting a decline of nearly 10% amid a broader market selloff linked to President Trump's new tariffs on imports. This has triggered panic selling across both global equity markets and cryptocurrencies. Notably, Bitcoin has dropped below 75,000 for the first time since November 2024, coinciding with a liquidation event where a whale lost approximately 1.54 million, contributing to total liquidations of around 19.58 million in less than 50 days. Social media discussions highlight that Bitcoin's decline is also associated with concerns over escalating tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties, which have led to substantial outflows from digital asset investment products. In the past week alone, Bitcoin experienced outflows of 207 million, while Ethereum has seen a decline of over 5%, suggesting a correlation in the negative market sentiment affecting both assets.

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) [-2.1%]
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) has declined by 2.1% in pre-market trading, coinciding with a broader market downturn. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is confirmed to be in correction territory, sitting over 10% below its record close after a significant decline of nearly 8% last week. Futures for the Dow dropped sharply, along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reflecting ongoing economic concerns. Social media discussions highlighted expectations of further selling pressure due to escalating global trade tensions and upcoming U.S. economic data. Notably, key holdings within DIA, including Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar, faced downgrades from analysts, contributing to their negative performance. Additionally, President Trump's announcement of new tariffs has intensified fears of a global economic slowdown, further impacting market sentiment.

TSLA | -5.2% | -37.5B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc's stock has dropped significantly, with shares declining over 10% in early trading today. This follows a substantial reduction in the price target by Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, which was cut from 550 to 315, citing concerns about brand perception and softening demand. Recent reports indicate that Tesla's first-quarter deliveries fell by 13%, marking the lowest performance in nearly three years. Additionally, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's previous recommendation to buy Tesla shares has proven ill-timed, as the stock has now fallen below those predictions. The overall sentiment surrounding Tesla is challenged amid rising competition and political headwinds, particularly from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The broader market is also experiencing downward pressure, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones facing significant declines due to escalating trade tensions.

NVDA | -4.9% | -108.1B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp has experienced a notable decline, moving lower alongside the broader market, which is facing significant turmoil due to President Trump's recent tariff policies. The U.S. markets have suffered staggering losses, with approximately $5 trillion in market capitalization wiped out over two days, and the Nasdaq entering bear territory. This environment has resulted in substantial losses for major companies, including NVIDIA. Social media discussions highlight that NVIDIA shares have fallen below $90 for the first time in 24 hours, marking a significant drop from its all-time high. The stock is reportedly trading more than 12% below its intrinsic value and continues to decline in premarket trading. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series I has also declined, reflecting the broader market's reaction to heightened trade tensions and uncertainty regarding future monetary policy.

BABA | -7.0% | -146.1B
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | Broadline Retail
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is experiencing significant downward pressure, with a reported 8% decline in premarket trading. This drop aligns with broader market trends, as the FXI index, which tracks Chinese stocks, has also fallen by 6%. The company is set to release an upgraded AI model, Qwen 3, by April, amid competitive pressures from domestic players in the AI sector. Recent social media discussions have noted that Alibaba's stock increased sharply in the first quarter, contrasting with declines in the Nasdaq Composite Index. However, the Hang Seng Index opened down significantly, with Alibaba's stock dropping notably during that session. Additionally, widening Asia credit default swaps have been highlighted as a concern, marking their most significant increase since March 2020. Year-to-date, Alibaba's performance remains positive, despite the recent volatility.

JPM | -2.3% | -13.4B
JPMorgan Chase & Co | Diversified Banks
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has experienced a notable decline, moving lower alongside the broader market. This downward trend coincides with significant turmoil in global markets, driven by the announcement of sweeping tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump, raising fears of a prolonged trade war and potential recession. CEO Jamie Dimon expressed serious concerns in a letter to shareholders, indicating that these tariffs could increase inflation and elevate the likelihood of a recession to 60%. Additionally, JPMorgan's Chief U.S. Economist revised the bank's GDP growth forecast for this year down to -0.3%, reflecting adverse effects from the tariffs. Social media discussions have echoed Dimon's warnings, highlighting the potential for stagflation and increased unemployment. The upcoming earnings report, scheduled for April 11, is anticipated to further influence market sentiment amid these economic uncertainties.

MS | -3.7% | -5.9B
Morgan Stanley | Investment Banking & Brokerage
Morgan Stanley is experiencing a notable decline, moving lower alongside the broader market amid significant turmoil. The global markets are reacting to the announcement of sweeping tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump, raising fears of a prolonged trade war and potential recession. Asian equity indices have seen sharp drops, with Japan's Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index falling dramatically. In this context, Morgan Stanley has forecasted a potential drop in the S&P 500 and revised its Brent oil price forecast downwards. Social media discussions highlight key upcoming events for the week, including Morgan Stanley's earnings report scheduled for Friday, alongside the release of critical economic indicators. The stock has moved down significantly, correlating closely with declines seen in other major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and the Dow Jones Index.

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