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Friday, February 28

Noteworthy macro moves today: Ethereum -6.3%. Bitcoin -3.6%. Gold -0.8%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) +1.1%. Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.B) +1.0%. Visa Inc (V) +0.7%. 

Recent market movements are heavily influenced by President Trump's announcement of new tariffs, including a 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico set to take effect soon. This has heightened concerns about escalating trade tensions with China as well, leading to significant sell-offs in global equity markets that particularly affect technology stocks like Nvidia.

In the U.S., economic data releases have shown mixed signals: personal spending fell for the first time since March 2023 while personal income rose sharply by 0.9%. The core PCE price index increased by 0.3%, aligning with expectations but still above the Federal Reserve's inflation target; these factors contribute to uncertainty regarding future monetary policy decisions.

Additionally, Japan reported a decline in industrial production for January alongside softer CPI figures that may impact Bank of Japan policies moving forward. As investors digest these developments amid ongoing geopolitical risks and potential shifts in central bank strategies globally, volatility is expected across various asset classes.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-3.6%]
Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline, falling to as low as 78,433 amid record outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs totaling 3.2 billion over the past eight days. This drop is compounded by President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect on March 4th, which has heightened market volatility. Social media discussions reveal that Bitcoin has dropped 25% from its peak, dipping below 82,000 for the first time since November. Additionally, Bitcoin dominance has decreased in four of the past six days, suggesting specific selling pressure. Recent posts indicate concerns about a broader crypto sell-off and highlight a significant increase in margin long positions on Bitfinex, which rose above 60,000 BTC. Ethereum has also declined significantly, reflecting broader market sentiment that may influence Bitcoin's current price movement.

iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) [-2.7%, -127.6M] Large Cap
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has seen a notable decline of approximately 2.6% in pre-market trading. This drop coincides with U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, adding to previously imposed tariffs and heightening trade tension concerns. The Hang Seng Index fell significantly, marking its largest one-day decline since October 2024, while China's blue-chip indices also experienced declines. Notably, shares of major e-commerce firms like Alibaba and JD.com dropped between 3% and 4%. Among the ETF's holdings, JD.com lagged due to worries over its food delivery venture, while Trip.com Group Ltd received a downgrade to "hold," reflecting challenges in financial performance. Additionally, the movement in the AUD/USD currency pair declined, suggesting broader market sentiment influences on FXI's performance.

DUOL | -8.3% | -1.2B
Duolingo Inc | Education Services
Duolingo Inc reported its fourth-quarter results on February 27, 2025, with revenue of 209.6 million, surpassing analyst expectations of 205.4 million. The company achieved a net income of 13.9 million and reported 9.5 million paid subscribers. Daily active users reached 40.5 million, reflecting a 51% year-over-year increase, while monthly active users climbed to 116.7 million. Despite these positive metrics, the earnings per share of 0.28 fell short of the anticipated 0.48. Following the earnings report, shares experienced a decline of 2.6% in after-hours trading due to concerns over rising marketing and AI investment costs. For the first quarter, Duolingo anticipates revenue between 220.5 million and 223.5 million, slightly above the consensus estimate of 221 million.

ESTC | +12.0% | +1.4B
Elastic NV | Application Software
Elastic NV reported its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, surpassing consensus estimates with an adjusted EPS of 0.63 compared to the anticipated 0.47. Revenue reached 382.1 million, exceeding expectations of 368.9 million and reflecting a year-over-year growth of 17%. The company raised its fiscal year 2025 EPS guidance to a range of 1.91 to 1.96, up from the prior estimate of 1.72. Elastic Cloud revenue hit 180 million, marking a 26% year-over-year increase. The number of customers generating $10K annual contract value rose to 4,500, while those with $100K ACV increased to 1,460. Guidance for the fourth quarter projects revenue between 379 million and 381 million, above the consensus estimate of 374.3 million. Following the earnings announcement, Elastic NV's stock price experienced a notable increase.

NTAP | -14.5% | -3.0B
NetApp Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
NetApp Inc. reported third-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, showing a net income of $299 million, down from $313 million the previous year. Revenues reached $1.64 billion, slightly exceeding last year's $1.61 billion but falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.69 billion. The company posted adjusted EPS of $1.91, aligning with expectations, yet provided Q4 guidance for adjusted EPS between $1.84 and $1.94, below the consensus of $1.99. Additionally, the FY25 adjusted EPS forecast ranged from $7.17 to $7.27, again below the consensus estimate of $7.33. Following these announcements, shares dropped significantly in after-hours trading, falling below the $100 mark.

DELL | -6.6% | -4.7B
Dell Technologies Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Dell Technologies Inc reported its fourth-quarter earnings, revealing adjusted earnings per share of $2.68, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.52. However, revenue for the quarter was $23.93 billion, falling short of the expected $24.56 billion. For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Dell forecasts revenue between $22.5 billion and $23.5 billion, below the consensus estimate of $23.72 billion. The company anticipates fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $9.30, slightly above the consensus of $9.29, with projected revenue between $101 billion and $105 billion. Additionally, Dell announced an 18% increase in its annual dividend and a $10 billion increase in its stock buyback program. Analysts from Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs subsequently lowered their price targets for the stock to $150 and $145, respectively. Following these results, Dell's stock experienced a notable decline of 6.6%.

HPQ | -3.2% | -1.0B
HP Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
HP Inc. reported its first-quarter results, revealing an adjusted EPS of $0.74, consistent with analyst expectations but down from $0.81 year-over-year. Revenue reached $13.5 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $13.36 billion and reflecting a year-over-year increase. The Personal Systems segment's revenue grew by 5% to $9.2 billion, while the Printing segment experienced a 2% decline to $4.3 billion. For the second quarter of fiscal 2025, HP projects adjusted EPS between $0.75 and $0.85, below the previous estimate of $0.86. Additionally, HP plans to cut up to 2,000 jobs as part of a cost-reduction initiative, with discussions on social media highlighting these developments. Following the earnings announcement, HPQ's stock declined by 3.2%.

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