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Tuesday, December 9

Noteworthy macro moves today: Copper -1.4%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Walmart Inc (WMT) +0.4%. 

Global equity markets are trading lower as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut of 25 basis points. This anticipation is fueled by recent economic data indicating a cooling job market and inflation concerns, which have led to cautious sentiment across various sectors.

In the U.S., the upcoming JOLTS report on job openings is being closely monitored for insights into labor market dynamics that could influence Fed policy. Analysts expect job openings to remain steady around previous levels, which may reinforce expectations for monetary easing amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.

Meanwhile, Germany's trade surplus has unexpectedly widened to €16.9 billion in October, driven by stronger-than-predicted export performance despite declining imports. This positive deviation from forecasts has contributed to a cautiously optimistic outlook among investors regarding Germany's economic resilience amid broader global challenges.

Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) [-1.4%]
The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) has experienced a decline of 1.4% in pre-market trading, reflecting broader market sentiments. BMI Research's recent outlook for the metals market anticipates higher average prices for most minerals by 2026, driven by tighter supply and robust demand, although risks for copper remain due to potential new duties anticipated from the U.S. Secretary of Commerce's update on the domestic copper market by mid-2026. Additionally, a projected slowdown in Mainland China's GDP growth may negatively impact industrial metals price growth. The ETF's daily return is influenced by cautious investor sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Notably, significant contributors to COPX's performance include FCX, SCCO, ERO, TECK, and BHP, all of which reported declines. The United States Copper Index Fund (CPER) also saw a notable drop, further correlating with COPX's performance.

iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) [-1.9%]
China's Foreign Ministry has called for cooperation with the U.S. regarding potential sales of Nvidia's H200 chips, a statement made approximately 3 hours and 45 minutes ago. Meanwhile, a Financial Times report, released about 1 hour and 45 minutes ago, reveals that China plans to restrict access to these chips, despite recent export approvals from the Trump administration. This regulatory scrutiny in the technology sector may influence equities related to the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI). Notably, among the ETF's holdings, JD experienced a significant drop, while LI also saw a considerable decline in performance.

ARES | +7.5% | +4.1B
Ares Management Corp | Asset Management & Custody Banks
Ares Management Corp will join the S&P 500, replacing Kellanova, effective before the market opens on December 11. Following this announcement, Ares Management's shares rose significantly, reflecting a notable increase. Social media discussions have highlighted the excitement surrounding Ares's inclusion in the prestigious index, with posts confirming the news and emphasizing its status as an alternative asset manager. This development marks a significant milestone for Ares Management, underscoring its growing prominence in the market. The index reshuffling also includes Sezzle and Vital Farms moving to the S&P SmallCap 600.

HD | -2.8% | -9.3B
Home Depot Inc | Home Improvement Retail
Home Depot has revised its fiscal year 2025 guidance, projecting a decrease in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) from $15.24 to $14.59, while expecting revenue to increase by 3%. For fiscal year 2026, the company anticipates adjusted EPS to be flat to up 4%, with revenue growth projected between 2.5% and 4.5%. Recent updates reveal that these forecasts for fiscal year 2026 are below market estimates. Management expressed optimism regarding a correction in housing market pressures, which is expected to bolster growth in the home-improvement sector more rapidly than the overall economy. Social media discussions highlighted management's reaffirmation of fiscal year 2025 outlook and initial guidance for fiscal year 2026 ahead of the upcoming Investor and Analyst Conference, underscoring anticipated sales growth and slightly positive comparable sales despite a projected EPS decline of about 6% compared to 2024.

CNM | +6.7% | +726.5M
Core & Main Inc | Trading Companies & Distributors
Core & Main Inc. reported its third-quarter results, revealing an adjusted EPS of 0.89, surpassing last year's 0.86, alongside a net income increase to 137 million from 133 million year-over-year. The company achieved net sales of 2.062 billion, reflecting a 1.2% increase. Core & Main reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 sales guidance of 7.6 billion to 7.7 billion, aligning with consensus estimates, and confirmed its adjusted EBITDA outlook of 920 million to 940 million. Additionally, the board authorized a 500 million increase to its existing share repurchase program, raising the total authorization to 1 billion, with approximately 684 million remaining for future repurchases as of December 8, 2025. Social media discussions anticipate an earnings announcement of 0.74 per share on December 9, reflecting a projected increase of 5.56%.

TOL | -5.9% | -777.6M
Toll Brothers Inc | Homebuilding
Toll Brothers Inc. reported a decline in Q4 profit, with earnings per share of 4.58, falling short of the analyst estimate of 4.89 by 0.31. Revenue for the quarter was 3.42 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of 3.31 billion. The company delivered 11,292 homes at an average price of 960,000, resulting in record home sales revenues of 10.8 billion. However, the backlog value decreased to 5.5 billion from 6.5 billion year-over-year, and net signed contract value dropped to 2.53 billion compared to 2.66 billion in the same quarter of FY 2024. Social media discussions reflect concerns about Toll Brothers' future outlook, particularly regarding potential downsides in their 2026 guidance amid a weakening housing market. This morning, the stock was noted at 136.20, with Q1 delivery expectations set between 1,800 and 1,900 units and FY26 deliveries projected at 10,300 to 10,700 units.

CVS | +3.0% | +2.9B
CVS Health Corp | Health Care Services
CVS Health has recently updated its financial outlook, projecting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal year 2026 to be between 7.00 and 7.20. The company anticipates total revenues to exceed 400 billion. For fiscal year 2025, CVS raised its adjusted EPS guidance to a range of 6.60 to 6.70, up from a previous estimate of 6.55 to 6.65, and increased revenue guidance for the same year to at least 400 billion from 397.3 billion. Management is targeting a mid-teens compound annual growth rate in adjusted EPS through 2028, driven by its diverse business portfolio and technological innovations. Additionally, social media discussions highlighted CVS's plans to launch an AI-native “engagement as a service” platform and noted key events such as the upcoming Investor Day and conferences scheduled for today.

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