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Tuesday, March 24

Noteworthy macro moves today: Hang Seng 50 Index (China) +3.0%. Oil (WTI) +3.1%. US 10Y Treasury Bond Index -0.3%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) +0.9%. Mastercard Inc (MA) +0.5%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) -0.3%. 

Global equity markets are trading lower following rising tensions between the US and Iran, which have led to increased volatility in oil prices and negative sentiment across various sectors. The Dow Jones Index and S&P 500 are both down as investors react to geopolitical developments, including President Trump's decision to postpone military strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure for five days.

In the U.S., economic data released this morning showed that nonfarm productivity grew by only 1.8% in Q4 of 2025, significantly lower than previous estimates, while unit labor costs rose more than expected at a rate of 4.4%. This combination of slowing productivity growth and rising labor costs raises concerns about inflationary pressures on the economy.

Additionally, European PMI data released today indicated a contraction in service sector activity, with France's Services PMI falling to a five-month low of 48.3 and the Eurozone Composite PMI declining to its weakest growth in ten months at 50.5. These figures reflect subdued demand driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and contribute to a cautious outlook among investors regarding future economic performance in Europe amid rising cost pressures.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+3.5%]
Iran's cessation of natural gas exports to Turkey, following missile strikes on Israeli energy infrastructure, has heightened concerns over supply disruptions in the region. This geopolitical tension is contributing to rising oil prices, with Brent crude trading above $102 per barrel. The United States Oil Fund LP, an ETF focused on crude oil commodities, is experiencing upward movement as a result of these developments. Analysts note that escalating risks in the Strait of Hormuz are tightening energy markets significantly. Additionally, discussions within the U.S. regarding increasing oil output from Alaska further underscore the active engagement of government and industry in addressing supply issues. In pre-market hours, the fund is trading higher, reflecting these significant geopolitical factors influencing oil supply and pricing dynamics.

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) [-4.1%]
The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) is experiencing a significant decline, attributed to a notable drop in the South Korean stock market, with the KOSPI index falling sharply. This decline is primarily driven by widespread losses across the financial, industrial, and technology sectors. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have escalated, particularly following missile strikes by Iran on Israel and ongoing strains in U.S.-Iran relations, which may further weigh on investor sentiment towards Korean equities. The ETF's performance is also impacted by movements in correlated assets, as the AUD/USD pair has declined, reflecting broader market sentiment. In early trading, EWY is notably lower since Monday's close, reaching a low after starting the day with less severe losses.

APO | -2.4% | -1.5B
Apollo Global Management Inc | Diversified Financial Services
Apollo Global Management has capped redemptions from its $25 billion private credit fund, Apollo Debt Solutions, at 5% of shares outstanding after clients sought to withdraw approximately 11.2% of the total. This decision, reported earlier, has contributed to a decline in Apollo's stock price. Following the announcement about the withdrawal caps, shares decreased significantly. Additionally, BMO Capital has maintained a market perform rating on Apollo while lowering its price target. This situation reflects growing concerns regarding liquidity and operational challenges within Apollo's funds amid a broader trend affecting multiple firms in the asset class.

VLO | -2.2% | -1.6B
Valero Energy Corp | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
A significant explosion at Valero Energy Corp's Port Arthur refinery in Texas has led to the facility's shutdown, which has a capacity of 380,000 barrels per day. The incident, involving a heater unit, prompted a shelter-in-place order for nearby residents, though all personnel were accounted for and no injuries reported. This disruption occurs amid volatile oil prices, with Brent Crude trading around $100, raising concerns about operational impacts. Valero's stock has declined during regular trading and further in overnight trade, reflecting the potential implications for its output and the broader market. Social media discussions have also highlighted the explosion and fire at the refinery, underscoring heightened concerns regarding the incident's effects on Valero's operations.

NTDOY | -4.1% | -692.0M
Nintendo Co Ltd | Interactive Home Entertainment
Nintendo Co., Ltd. has announced a significant reduction in the production of its Switch 2 console, cutting output from 6 million units to 4 million for the current quarter. This adjustment stems from lower-than-expected demand during the recent year-end holiday season, highlighting challenges in meeting sales expectations for the $450 gaming console. As a result of this announcement, shares are trading significantly lower, reflecting a stark drop since Monday's close. This decline marks a notable move as the stock sits near the lower end of its one-month range and is below its 20-day moving average.

BLK | -1.9% | -2.7B
BlackRock Inc | Asset Management & Custody Banks
Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock Inc., outlined the implications of tokenization for the financial system in his 2026 Annual Chairman’s Letter published today. He likened the current state of tokenization to the internet in 1996, asserting it will coexist with traditional finance rather than replace it. Fink highlighted that BlackRock holds substantial assets linked to digital assets, including nearly $150 billion and a significant tokenized treasury fund. He urged policymakers to accelerate approvals for tokenizing traditional financial assets. Following these announcements, BlackRock shares declined, mirroring weak price trends across various timeframes. Additionally, the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF experienced a slight decline, which may also reflect broader market sentiment impacting BlackRock's stock performance.

SFTBY | -3.7% | -606.6M
SoftBank Group Corp | Wireless Telecommunication Services
SoftBank Group Corp has announced a significant commitment of $30 billion towards OpenAI, reflecting its strategy to enhance its involvement in the artificial intelligence sector. This substantial investment raises concerns regarding the company's borrowing limits and overall financial stability, which may affect investor perception. The announcement coincides with broader market volatility, contributing to a notable decline in SoftBank's stock price today. Additionally, the company's CFO indicated that it might temporarily exceed its self-imposed 25% loan-to-value ratio to accelerate AI investments, further complicating its capital deployment strategy. In the context of market performance, SoftBank's shares are trading lower, aligning with the broader decline observed in the S&P 500 Index.

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