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Tuesday, February 17

Noteworthy macro moves today: GBP/USD -0.7%. Gold -1.4%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Broadcom Inc (AVGO) -2.2%. Alphabet Inc (GOOG) -1.7%. Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) -1.7%.

Global equity markets are trading lower following heightened geopolitical tensions and disappointing economic data releases from the U.K., which have raised concerns about potential rate cuts by the Bank of England. The U.K.'s unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, above expectations, while average earnings growth fell short of forecasts, reinforcing speculation that the Bank may need to ease monetary policy soon.

In the U.S., futures indicate a negative open as investors react to ongoing geopolitical risks and await key economic indicators such as the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index released this morning, which could provide insights into manufacturing activity amid broader economic uncertainty. Additionally, traders are closely monitoring upcoming Federal Reserve speeches and minutes for clues on future interest rate decisions.

Meanwhile, in Canada, wholesale sales rose by 2% month-on-month in December but slightly missed preliminary estimates, reflecting mixed signals about consumer demand and economic health as inflation rates also showed signs of easing. This backdrop contributes to a cautious sentiment across North American markets as investors weigh these developments against potential shifts in central bank policies.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [-2.3%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has experienced a notable decline of 2.0% since Friday, coinciding with a broader drop in gold prices. Spot gold fell nearly 2% to approximately $4,910 per ounce, marking three consecutive days of decline. This downturn is attributed to weaker demand from China during the Lunar New Year holiday and a strengthening U.S. dollar. Concurrently, U.S. gold futures dropped significantly, and recent social media discussions highlighted a cautious optimism about GLD amid low volatility. Notably, silver has also declined by over 2%, reflecting a similar trend in precious metals that may affect GLD's performance. A Bank of America survey revealed that half of fund managers view gold buying as a crowded trade, underscoring the prevailing sentiment surrounding the asset amidst shifting economic conditions.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) [-3.4%]
Spot silver prices have dropped significantly, reaching their lowest levels in over ten days amid a stronger U.S. dollar. The dollar has appreciated recently, contributing to a nearly 9% decline in silver prices over the past week. Retail sentiment for iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is currently in the 'extremely bearish' zone, coinciding with declines in major silver miners, which fell over 3.5% in pre-market trading. Social media discussions highlight expectations of price manipulation due to the Shanghai Futures Exchange closure for the Lunar New Year, as well as concerns about a potential significant drop in SLV prices. Recent trends indicate a decline in speculative enthusiasm among investors following sharp selloffs, while analysts caution against the risks associated with leveraged ETFs. Additionally, gold prices have also declined, further reflecting broader market sentiment affecting precious metals.

DHR | -6.0% | -8.9B
Danaher Corp | Life Sciences Tools & Services
Danaher Corp is reportedly nearing a significant acquisition of Masimo Corp for approximately $10 billion, with an announcement expected as early as Tuesday. The deal involves a cash payment of $180 per share, representing a nearly 40% premium to Masimo's recent closing price. This acquisition follows notable governance changes at Masimo instigated by activist investors. Social media discussions have confirmed the details of the acquisition, highlighting its strategic importance for Danaher in the healthcare technology sector. The news has already led to a substantial increase in Masimo's stock price, which rose significantly following the announcement. In contrast, Danaher's stock has dropped significantly as the market processes the implications of this transaction.

GOOGL | -1.8% | -66.4B
Alphabet Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Alphabet Inc is experiencing a decline, influenced by the broader Interactive Media & Services sub-sector, which is also moving lower. Recent developments include a five-year partnership between Google Cloud and Unilever aimed at enhancing consumer goods through advanced AI technologies. This partnership may alter competitive dynamics in the sector. Concurrently, fund managers are expressing concerns over potential AI overspending, leading to a shift away from U.S. stocks amid fears of an AI bubble. An analysis from Evercore ISI has noted a decline in free cash flow among major hyperscalers, raising caution in the market. Additionally, social media discussions indicate that Alphabet is trading below its 50-day moving average by the largest margin since April 2025, reflecting significant market positioning. The Nasdaq 100 Index has also declined, suggesting that broader market sentiment may be influencing Alphabet's performance.

MDT | -2.7% | -3.5B
Medtronic PLC | Health Care Equipment
Medtronic PLC's recent third-quarter results revealed revenue of $9.0 billion, marking an 8.7% increase year-over-year and surpassing analyst expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $1.36, slightly above the consensus estimate of $1.34. Despite this positive performance, shares fell by 0.5% post-announcement. The Cardiovascular Portfolio stood out with a 13.8% revenue growth, yet potential tariff impacts of approximately $185 million remain a concern. The company reaffirmed its guidance for FY26 organic revenue growth at around 5.5%. Additionally, Medtronic's newly FDA-cleared Hugo robotic-assisted surgery system was successfully utilized in its first U.S. commercial case, representing a significant operational milestone. Currently, Medtronic’s stock is down by 3.4%, trading at $99.49, amid discussions on social media focusing on its earnings performance.

MU | -2.2% | -9.9B
Micron Technology Inc | Semiconductors
Micron Technology Inc has seen its stock price decline by 2.3%, aligning with broader market trends that are also moving lower. The company is actively investing $200 billion to meet data center demands, which includes a $50 billion commitment to expand its Boise campus with two new chip factories. The first factory is expected to begin producing silicon wafers by mid-2027. Additionally, Micron is initiating a $100 billion factory complex in New York and a $9.6 billion investment in Japan. Despite these significant expansions, the stock is experiencing downward pressure. Recent social media discussions highlight a surge in DRAM prices driven by demand from the AI sector, with analysts noting a substantial supply crunch in the memory-chip industry. Concurrently, the Nasdaq 100 Index has declined, which may be contributing to Micron's stock movement.

GIS | -3.3% | -873.4M
General Mills Inc | Packaged Foods & Meats
General Mills has revised its fiscal 2026 outlook, now expecting a decline in organic net sales between 1.5% to 2%, a notable shift from the prior forecast of a decrease of 1% to an increase of 1%. This adjustment is attributed to weak consumer sentiment and increased uncertainty impacting purchasing behavior. The company also projects adjusted operating profit and adjusted EPS to fall by 16% to 20% in constant currency, compared to the earlier estimate of a decline between 10% and 15%. These updates were shared ahead of the Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference, where executives highlighted ongoing investments in brand competitiveness amid challenging market conditions. Additionally, General Mills has lowered its EPS guidance for FY 2026 to a range of $3.37 to $3.54, down from $3.58 to $3.79.

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