German Economy Shrinks for Sixth Quarter; Bitcoin and Coinbase Tumble Amid Trade Tensions and Market Volatility | MarketReader Minute

Geopolitical tensions and economic data drive global market volatility as U.S. tariffs raise trade war fears, while Germany's economy contracts for six straight quarters.

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Tuesday, February 25

Noteworthy macro moves today: US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.6%. Bitcoin -2.9%. Ethereum -3.7%. 

Recent market movements are significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic data releases. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will proceed as planned, raising concerns about a potential trade war, which has led to increased volatility in equity markets globally. This announcement contributed to declines across major indices such as the Nasdaq Composite while also prompting investors to seek safety in bonds.

In terms of economic indicators, Germany's economy contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter for Q4 2024 due primarily to declining exports and sluggish household consumption growth; this marks six consecutive quarters of year-over-year contraction. Additionally, preliminary estimates suggest Canadian manufacturing sales rose by 2% month-over-month in January following modest gains previously reported.

Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming key reports including consumer confidence figures set for release today at 10:00 AM ET along with various Federal Reserve speeches throughout the day aimed at providing insights into future monetary policy direction amidst ongoing inflationary pressures observed recently within macroeconomic trends.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-2.9%]
Bitcoin has dropped significantly today, trading around 87,792, marking a decline. This downturn follows President Trump's announcement of impending tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, which has heightened risk aversion. The cryptocurrency market is also under pressure from recent industry shocks, including the $1.4 billion Bybit hack that has affected Ethereum prices. Notably, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen substantial outflows totaling approximately 928.9 million over the past three weeks, with BTC trading between 94,000 and 98,000, down 13% from its all-time high. BTC has fallen below 90,000 for the first time since mid-January, with reports indicating a price drop to 88,000. Over the past 24 hours, there were over 366,000 liquidations amounting to 1.34 billion, while the fear and greed index has reached "extreme fear," reflecting heightened anxiety in the market.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [-0.7%]
Gold prices reached an all-time high of nearly $2,956 per ounce early Monday but subsequently retreated to approximately $2,937.67. This fluctuation was influenced by President Trump's tariff threats, which heightened demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Year-to-date, gold has appreciated significantly, while GLD has shown a similar upward trend. Currently, gold is trading lower at around $2,954.81, reflecting broader market volatility and concerns regarding economic indicators. Notably, GLD experienced a substantial daily inflow of $1.95 billion on Friday, marking the largest inflow since November 2016. Concurrently, social media discussions revealed a sharp decline in China's gold imports via Hong Kong, which fell by 45% in January amid record-high prices. Additionally, silver prices have dropped significantly, potentially affecting GLD due to the historical correlation between the two precious metals.

ZM | -4.0% | -970.6M
Zoom Video Communications Inc | Application Software

Zoom Video Communications Inc. reported its fourth-quarter earnings on February 24, 2025, with an adjusted EPS of 1.41, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.30, while revenue met expectations at 1.18 billion. The company issued a weaker-than-expected guidance for the first quarter, forecasting revenue between 1.162 billion and 1.167 billion, below the consensus of 1.175 billion. For fiscal year 2026, Zoom anticipates adjusted EPS of 5.34 to 5.37, slightly under the estimated 5.36. Following the announcement, shares dropped approximately 4.2% in after-hours trading. Notably, total revenue rose by 3.3% year-over-year, with enterprise revenue increasing by 5.9%, while online revenue saw a slight decline of 0.4%. The number of customers generating over 100,000 in trailing twelve-month revenue grew by 7.3% to 4,088, and the company repurchased around 4.3 million shares in Q4.

COIN | -4.0% | -2.1B
Coinbase Global Inc | Financial Exchanges & Data

Coinbase Global Inc experienced a notable decline in premarket trading, with shares dropping significantly amid a broader downturn in the cryptocurrency market. This follows an over 8% drop in Bitcoin, which fell to a three-month low of $87,792. The negative sentiment was further compounded by a major security breach at Bybit, resulting in the theft of $1.5 billion in digital assets. Additionally, Bank of America Global Research has reduced its price target for Coinbase from $363 to $311. Social media discussions highlighted that Coinbase fell below its 200-day moving average, with speculation of a potential decline to around $180 and a gap near 197.25 that may need to be filled. Overall, the market sentiment remains negative, with concerns that certain stocks, including Coinbase, may struggle to recover.

TCOM | -8.8% | -3.3B
Trip.com Group Ltd | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Trip.com Group Ltd reported its fourth-quarter financial results, revealing revenue of 12.77 billion yuan, a 24% year-over-year increase, surpassing estimates. Accommodation reservation revenue rose to 5.18 billion yuan, up 33% year-over-year, while transportation ticketing revenue increased by 16%, totaling 4.78 billion yuan. Adjusted earnings per American depositary receipt reached 4.35 yuan, exceeding the expected 4.20 yuan. Despite these positive results, the stock experienced a decline of approximately 9% in premarket trading. Social media discussions highlighted that international hotel and air ticket bookings have reached 120% of pre-COVID levels, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling. However, the reported Q4 earnings per share of RMB 3.09 may not be directly comparable to the FactSet Consensus of RMB 6.44, contributing to the stock's downward movement.

RDHL | -6.3% | -3.6B
Redhill Biopharma Ltd | Pharmaceuticals

RedHill Biopharma Ltd has entered an exclusive worldwide licensing agreement with Hyloris Pharmaceuticals for its drug RHB-102, excluding North America. The agreement includes an upfront payment and potential milestone payments of up to $60 million, contingent on achieving specified commercial targets, along with mid-20s percent royalties on revenues. Hyloris will manage all development, regulatory, and commercialization activities outside the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. RedHill is pursuing FDA approval for RHB-102 in the U.S. Recent guidance from the UK's Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has established a pathway for a UK Marketing Authorization Application for RHB-102, which may become the first oral 24-hour extended-release ondansetron drug for chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting. Social media has been abuzz with posts highlighting this licensing agreement and its implications for the global antiemetics market, valued at approximately $7.5 billion in 2023.

BABA | +4.2% | +110.1B
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | Broadline Retail

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd has announced plans to invest over $52 billion in artificial intelligence and cloud computing over the next three years, focusing on cloud infrastructure and various AI applications. This investment follows a target price increase to HK$170.00 from HK$133.00, while shares were last noted at HK$132.20. Meanwhile, social media sentiment reflects a significant downturn, with shares expected to open down in Hong Kong and experiencing notable declines in U.S. trading. Despite this, mainland Chinese investors purchased an additional 126 million shares, raising their ownership to 5.89%. Additionally, Alibaba and competitors have increased orders for NVIDIA's H20 chip amid rising demand. Despite early market dips, there was a reported net inflow of approximately HK$6.6 billion into Alibaba shares from mainland investors.

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