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Thursday, October 3

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: Copper -2.6%. US Dollar Index +0.3%. GBP/USD -1.1%. 

The global markets are currently reacting to a combination of economic data releases and geopolitical tensions. In the United States, initial jobless claims rose more than expected, reaching 225,000 for the week ending September 28th. This increase in unemployment benefits claimants has fueled speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.

In Europe, private sector activity showed signs of contraction with Germany's composite PMI revised slightly higher but still indicating renewed declines in business activities since February. The Eurozone services PMI was adjusted upwards yet remained at its weakest expansion level over seven months as demand fell sharply across major economies like Germany and France.

Geopolitical concerns have also impacted market sentiment significantly; escalating conflicts between Iran and Israel pose risks that could lead to volatile oil prices affecting broader financial stability globally. According to Bank Of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s warnings regarding possible Middle East-induced shocks on monetary policy decisions amidst ongoing crises there which might destabilize energy supplies.

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) [-0.2%]
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) has seen a slight decline of 0.2% since Wednesday. Recent social media discussions suggest a bullish market sentiment for DIA, alongside other indices like SPY, QQQ, and IWM. Additionally, DIA is now available for trading on BingX, which may enhance its trading activity and visibility. The Dow Jones Index has dropped by 0.3%, influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions due to missile strikes involving Iran and Israel, raising concerns over potential oil supply disruptions. This context is compounded by a rise in US Initial Jobless Claims, which surpassed expectations, hinting at possible shifts in Federal Reserve policy. The S&P 500 Index has also declined by 0.36%, reflecting broader market sentiment that could be affecting DIA's performance.

iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) [-3.5%]
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) is down significantly in pre-market trading, reflecting broader market pressures. A recent report indicated a decline of nearly 3% for FXI, coinciding with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a drop in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index. Despite recent stimulus measures announced by China aimed at reviving its economy, sentiment remains negative. Social media discussions have highlighted concerns regarding the sell-off in Chinese stocks, including FXI, with calls to exit these positions. Among FXI's holdings, notable contributors to the decline include JD and TCOM, both of which experienced substantial drops. Additionally, rising initial jobless claims in the U.S. have added to market volatility, further influencing FXI's performance. The AUD/USD currency pair has also declined, which may be impacting perceptions of Chinese large-cap equities.

BABA | -3.3% | -70.4B
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | Broadline Retail
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) is experiencing a pre-market decline. HSBC analyst Charlene Liu has raised the price target for BABA to 134 from 112, maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting a positive outlook. Concurrently, Joe Tsai, co-founder of Alibaba, is in advanced discussions to acquire a 3% stake in the Miami Dolphins, part of a broader deal valuing the team and associated assets at 8.1 billion. Additionally, Citi has increased its target price for BABA from HK$ 115 to HK$ 135, citing expectations of improved consumer sentiment due to recent monetary and fiscal policies in China. Social media discussions highlight hedge funds investing in Chinese equities at unprecedented rates, while the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has declined by 2.76%, influenced by mixed performances across Asia and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

STZ | -1.5% | -710.3M
Constellation Brands Inc | Distillers & Vintners
Constellation Brands Inc reported its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results, posting an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 4.32, surpassing the analyst estimate of 4.08. Revenue reached 2.92 billion, slightly exceeding the consensus forecast of 2.90 billion. Notably, the company recorded a net loss of 1.199 billion, a stark contrast to the net income of 690 million from the prior year, primarily due to a non-cash goodwill impairment loss of 2.25 billion in its Wine and Spirits division. The beer segment saw a 6% increase in net sales, driven by a 4.6% rise in shipment volumes. Constellation reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 EPS outlook between 13.60 and 13.80, aligning with analyst expectations. In the broader market context, Diageo PLC declined, and the Dow Jones Index also moved down, reflecting a general pullback that may influence Constellation's performance.

NVDA | +1.9% | +55.6B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp's stock has increased amid significant developments in the AI sector. CEO Jensen Huang recently stated that the demand for the new Blackwell GPU platform is "insane" and confirmed it is now in full production. Customers are eager to secure these chips, reflecting strong interest. The partnership with Accenture aims to deploy AI agents to enhance corporate productivity, with Accenture's new AI Refinery platform expected to play a crucial role. Additionally, the Blackwell GPU has set a new AI benchmark with over 100 system configurations, showcasing robust production ramp-up and competitive positioning. Huang reiterated the momentum behind Blackwell and its potential impact on AI spending through 2025. NVIDIA's stock closed at 118.85, reflecting this encouraging backdrop.

HIMS |-10.7%|-387.6M
Hims & Hers Health Inc | Health Care Services
Hims & Hers Health Inc's shares have dropped significantly following the FDA's announcement that the shortage of tirzepatide injection, a GLP-1 weight-loss medication, has been resolved. This resolution allows branded manufacturers like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to regain market dominance, as they can now meet both current and projected national demand. In premarket trading, shares fell nearly 9%. Social media discussions highlight that Hims & Hers is experiencing a gap down due to this news, with emphasis on its non-weight loss business model. Despite the volatility, some posts argue that Hims & Hers remains undervalued, citing over 2 million paying subscribers and projected financials of $220 million in EBITDA and $170 million in free cash flow for 2025. The overall sentiment reflects a direct correlation between the FDA's announcement and the stock's decline.

LEVI | -12.1%| -892.1M
Levi Strauss & Co | Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Levi Strauss & Co reported its third-quarter earnings, revealing adjusted earnings per share of $0.33, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.31. However, net revenue reached $1.52 billion, below the anticipated $1.55 billion, reflecting a modest year-over-year increase. The company announced a strategic review of its Dockers brand, potentially considering a sale due to shifting consumer preferences towards denim. Following these results, shares dropped significantly in after-hours trading. Additionally, Levi Strauss narrowed its full-year revenue guidance to approximately 1% growth, down from a previous range of 1% to 3%. The company reaffirmed its adjusted diluted EPS guidance for the fiscal year at $1.17 to $1.27, despite facing a foreign exchange headwind.

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