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Tuesday, March 18

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold +1.1%. Oil (WTI) +1.3%. Bitcoin -2.0%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Tesla Inc (TSLA) -3.9%. Broadcom Inc (AVGO) -2.4%. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) -1.3%.

Recent market movements are significantly influenced by geopolitical developments and economic data releases. A key focus is on the upcoming phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which aims to discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine amidst ongoing tensions that have affected global markets. This conversation could impact risk sentiment across financial assets.

In terms of economic indicators, recent reports show mixed results from the United States: housing starts surged unexpectedly by 11.2% month-over-month for February, while building permits fell slightly—indicating some volatility in construction activity amid broader concerns about consumer spending as retail sales rose only modestly at 0.2%. Additionally, import prices increased more than expected during this period.

European markets are reacting positively ahead of Germany's parliamentary vote concerning significant fiscal reforms aimed at boosting defense spending and infrastructure investment through a €500 billion fund proposal; this has bolstered investor confidence reflected in rising indices like the DAX and CAC 40 today following strong ZEW survey results showing improved economic sentiment among investors regarding future growth prospects within Europe.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+1.3%] Crude oil prices have advanced amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following military actions by Israel against Hamas and U.S. airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen. These developments have raised concerns over supply disruptions. Concurrently, optimism surrounding China's economic stimulus measures, aimed at boosting consumer demand, is providing additional support to oil prices. Social media discussions highlight interest in the United States Oil Fund LP (USO), with posts referencing its performance in relation to broader market dynamics and geopolitical events. Notably, a decrease in the North America rig count by 35 rigs for the week ending March 14 has been reported, which could signal supply-side pressures pertinent to USO.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+1.1%}
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has experienced a price increase of 1.1% during the pre-market session on Tuesday. This follows a notable rise in gold prices, which reached an all-time high of over $3,000 per ounce, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions due to Israeli military operations against Hamas. Recent data also indicated a significant surge in housing starts in the U.S., which contributed to increased volatility in GLD. Social media discussions highlighted that spot gold surpassed $3,020 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date growth exceeding 15%. Additionally, April gold futures reached a record high, further aligning with the positive sentiment in the broader markets following strong performances from major U.S. indices.

Tesla Inc (TSLA) [-4.1%, -29.5B]
Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc. is grappling with significant challenges as it nears March delivery estimates, with analysts projecting a potential miss. Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management indicated that while the consensus expects 422,000 deliveries, the "whisper number" is lower at 375,000. Mizuho has downgraded Tesla's price target from 515 to 430, citing weakening demand and reduced delivery forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Tesla's market capitalization has fallen from approximately 1.3 trillion at the end of 2024 to about 745.8 billion as of March 17, 2025, reflecting a loss exceeding 42% in investor wealth this year. Social media highlights include a report that RBC Capital has lowered its price target for Tesla from 440 to 320 due to concerns over softening fundamentals. Additionally, competition intensifies as rivals like Zeekr and BYD introduce advanced technologies that may surpass Tesla's offerings.

NIO | +4.6% | +501.4M
NIO Inc | Automobile Manufacturers NIO Inc. has entered a strategic partnership with Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) to develop a battery swapping network for electric vehicles. This collaboration, announced approximately two hours ago, will see CATL invest up to 2.5 billion yuan in NIO Power and introduce its Choco-Swap technical standards to NIO's upcoming Firefly-branded models. Recent social media activity highlights that this agreement is perceived as a significant advancement in battery swap technology, with users noting a surge in NIO's stock following the news. NIO has also launched eight new battery swap stations, contributing to its existing network of over 3,172 stations. The first Firefly model is scheduled for launch on April 19. Additionally, NIO is expected to announce its Q4 FY2024 earnings before market open on March 21, 2025, with an EPS estimate of -0.4 and revenue estimated at 2.9 billion.

TIGR | +2.3% | +392.7M
UP Fintech Holding Ltd | Investment Banking & Brokerage
UP Fintech Holding Ltd (TIGR) reported robust Q4 2024 financial results, revealing a revenue of 124.1 million, marking a significant year-over-year increase of 77.3%. The company added 59,200 new funded clients, reflecting a growth of 51.4% YoY. Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders soared to 30.5 million, nearly 28 times higher than the previous year. For the full year, revenue reached 391.5 million, up 43.7% YoY, while total client assets surged to a record 41.7 billion, driven by a 36.4% annual growth. On social media, discussions highlighted that TIGR's non-GAAP EPS of 0.17 exceeded expectations by 0.06, alongside positive sentiment for Chinese fintech stocks following BofA's initiation of coverage with a "Buy" rating and a price target of 8.66. Additionally, Baidu Inc (BIDU) experienced an increase after news of Tesla's Full Self-Driving service rollout in China, which may correlate with UP Fintech's market movement.

XPEV | -3.8% | -1.7B
Xpeng Inc | Automobile Manufacturers Xpeng Inc. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, revealing total revenues of RMB 16.105 billion, up from RMB 13.050 billion the previous year. The company recorded a net loss of RMB 1.329 billion, slightly better than the loss of RMB 1.348 billion in Q4 2023. Non-GAAP net loss per share was RMB 0.73, missing analyst estimates. Vehicle deliveries surged to 91,507 units, a year-over-year increase of over 50%. For Q1 2025, Xpeng anticipates vehicle deliveries between 91,000 and 93,000 and revenue guidance of RMB 15 billion to RMB 15.7 billion, exceeding analyst projections. The company’s gross margin for Q4 stood at 14.4%, an improvement from the prior year. Following the earnings report, Xpeng's stock moved down approximately 3.1%. Social media discussions highlighted the company's revenue growth and vehicle registrations in China.

ESLT | +6.3% | +1.1B
Elbit Systems Ltd | Aerospace & Defense Elbit Systems Ltd reported its fourth-quarter results, revealing revenue of 1.93 billion, surpassing the FactSet estimate of 1.78 billion. The company posted an adjusted EPS of 2.66, exceeding expectations of 1.95 and significantly up from 1.56 per share in the same quarter last year. CEO Bezhalel Machlis noted a fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in revenues and backlog year-over-year, alongside 320 million in free cash flow. Elbit's order backlog reached 22.6 billion, with 65% sourced from international markets. The firm declared a quarterly dividend of 0.60 per share, payable on May 5, with a record date of April 22. Social media discussions reflected notable enthusiasm, highlighting the strong performance and a recent increase of over 100 points in the stock price.

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