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Wednesday, June 18

Noteworthy macro moves today: Platinum +2.7%. 

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, are significantly impacting market sentiment. President Trump's recent demands for Iran's unconditional surrender have heightened fears of U.S. military involvement, leading to increased oil prices as investors seek safety in Treasuries and the dollar while selling off equities.

In economic data releases today, initial jobless claims in the U.S. remained steady at 245,000—aligning with expectations but indicating a softening labor market trend—as housing starts fell sharply by nearly 10% month-over-month to their lowest level since May 2020 due to high mortgage rates affecting demand. Additionally, core inflation figures from both the UK (3.5%) and Eurozone (2.3%) showed signs of easing more than anticipated.

The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming meeting later today; however, there is speculation regarding future rate cuts amid concerns over persistent inflation driven by tariffs and geopolitical risks that could affect growth prospects moving forward this year.

iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) [+1.1%]
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, with President Trump demanding Iran's unconditional surrender, leading to increased volatility in global markets. This situation has influenced sentiment towards Japanese equities, including the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ), as safe-haven flows into the US Dollar rise amid concerns of potential military involvement by the U.S., which could disrupt critical oil supplies for Japan's economy. Japan's adjusted trade balance reported a deficit of -0.31 trillion yen, better than the estimated -0.37 trillion yen. Year-on-year exports for May decreased by 1.7%, an improvement over the expected decline of 3.8%. The trade balance for May also showed a deficit of -637.6 billion yen, significantly narrower than the estimated -893.0 billion yen. Notably, movements in USD/JPY contributed positively to EWJ's performance, with top holdings such as TM and SONY also showing increased returns.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [+0.5%, +123.7M]
Technology
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have intensified, with President Trump demanding Iran's unconditional surrender. This escalation has led to increased volatility in financial markets. Concurrently, oil prices are under upward pressure due to concerns about potential disruptions in critical shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, which may indirectly impact tech sectors reliant on stable energy supplies. Among the ETF's holdings, notable contributors included NVDA, AMD, MU, AMAT, and QCOM. Qualcomm has experienced mixed analyst sentiments, with its average 12-month price target decreasing significantly. The company reported a revenue growth rate of nearly 17% and maintains a net margin of over 25% alongside a return on equity of 10.3%.

MRVL | +4.8% | +46.0B
Marvell Technology Inc | Semiconductors
Marvell Technology Inc. hosted a virtual AI event showcasing its strong position in the custom silicon market. Analysts from BAML projected an earnings power of $8 per share by 2028, raising the price target to $90. B. Riley increased its target to $115, while Benchmark reiterated a buy rating with a $95 target. Following the event, shares rose in premarket trading, reflecting positive sentiment. The company also increased its total addressable market for data centers to $94 billion by 2028, indicating significant growth potential. Additionally, Rosenblatt reiterated a buy rating with a price target of $124. Discussions on social media highlighted projections of approximately $18 billion in revenue from AI by 2028, driven by demand for custom XPU solutions, and noted Marvell's achievement of 18 custom socket wins, suggesting a strong trajectory for earnings per share power by 2028.

NUE | +3.3% | +1.0B
Nucor Corp | Steel
Nucor Corp has announced its earnings guidance for the second quarter of 2025, projecting earnings per share (EPS) between 2.55 and 2.65, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2.36. This guidance, released approximately 28 minutes ago, suggests anticipated earnings growth across all operating segments, with the steel mills segment expected to show the most significant improvement due to higher average selling prices. For Q1 2025, Nucor reported net earnings of 0.67 per diluted share, compared to 2.68 per diluted share in the same quarter last year. Following this announcement, Nucor's stock experienced a premarket increase of 2%. Additionally, GMS Inc has seen a notable increase of nearly 10% after its fourth-quarter results surpassed consensus estimates, which may provide context for Nucor's recent price movement.

KLAC | +1.0% | +1.2B
KLA Corp | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
KLA Corp's stock has increased by 1.0% in pre-market trading. Analyst ratings present a mixed outlook among 16 analysts, with five bullish, six somewhat bullish, and five indifferent. The average 12-month price target has decreased by 2.02% to 789.88, with a high estimate of 950.00 and a low of 590.00. Notably, Edward Yang from Oppenheimer raised his price target to 950.00 from 740.00, while Harlan Sur from JP Morgan lowered his target to 900.00 from 950.00. KLA's financial indicators reveal a strong market position, highlighted by a revenue growth rate of 29.8% over the past three months and a net margin of 35.53%. Nonetheless, the company faces challenges with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.52. Meanwhile, Marvell Technology Inc has risen by 4.02%, following a virtual AI event that enhanced its standing in the custom silicon market, which may be correlated with KLA's movement.

MU | +1.1% | +1.5B
Micron Technology Inc | Semiconductors
Micron Technology Inc. is scheduled to release its fiscal Q2 earnings after hours on June 25. Options traders are reportedly making bearish bets ahead of the announcement, reflecting a potential negative outlook. Historically, the company has experienced significant volatility following earnings reports, with an average post-earnings swing of nearly 10%. Currently, the options market anticipates an even larger move of approximately 12%. Year-to-date, the stock has increased substantially. This information was highlighted on social media platforms after market hours yesterday.

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