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Thursday, October 30

Noteworthy macro moves today: USD/CNH +0.3%. Gold +1.0%. US Dollar Index +0.5%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Meta Platforms Inc (META) -10.3%. Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) +7.7%. Alphabet Inc (GOOG) +7.6%. 

Global equity markets are trading lower today as investors react to a series of economic data releases and central bank decisions. The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, coupled with cautious remarks from Chair Jerome Powell regarding future cuts, has contributed to mixed sentiment in the market.

The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark short-term rate at 0.5%, aligning with expectations but highlighting ongoing global economic uncertainties that could impact growth stability. This decision comes amid concerns about inflationary pressures and trade dynamics affecting the Japanese economy.

In Europe, preliminary GDP figures revealed that while Germany’s economy stagnated in Q3 2023 following previous contractions, France experienced stronger-than-expected growth at 0.5%. These contrasting results have implications for monetary policy discussions ahead of today's European Central Bank meeting where rates are expected to remain unchanged amidst signs of resilience despite geopolitical tensions.

iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) [-1.8%]
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has experienced a decline of 1.8% since Wednesday. Recent developments include President Trump's announcement of a reduction in tariffs on China from 57% to 47%, alongside an agreement for China to resume soybean purchases, committing to 12 million tons this year. Additionally, Trump indicated that China will begin purchasing American energy, specifically oil and gas from Alaska. The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points may also influence market sentiment. Social media discussions reflect a notable price movement related to a recent meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, with FXI reported lower following this interaction. The USD/CNH exchange rate contributed negatively to FXI's performance, while the top holdings such as JD, TCOM, and LI also saw declines. Furthermore, the AUD/USD pair has declined, reflecting broader market sentiment that may impact FXI.

USD/JPY (USD/JPY) [+1.0%]
The USD/JPY has strengthened today, reflecting an increase in its daily return following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. This move signals caution regarding future cuts amid mixed economic signals and uncertainty from ongoing government shutdowns that affect data releases. Concurrently, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark rate at 0.5%, aligning with expectations and previous rates. This decision has contributed to market reactions favoring the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, particularly in light of anticipated monetary policy adjustments under new leadership in Japan that may influence future inflation outlooks. Additionally, the USD/CNH has moved up, reflecting broader market sentiment that may also be influencing the recent increase in USD/JPY.

META | -9.3% | -160.9B
Meta Platforms Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Meta Platforms Inc reported a significant decline in its quarterly profit, primarily due to a $15.9 billion non-cash tax charge. This led to earnings per share dropping to $1.05 from $6.03 a year earlier, falling short of expectations. Revenue increased by 26% to $51.24 billion, surpassing analyst forecasts. The company anticipates fourth-quarter revenue between $56 billion and $59 billion, slightly below consensus estimates. Meta also raised its expense outlook for the year to a total of $116 billion to $118 billion, driven by higher capital expenditures for AI infrastructure. Following the earnings announcement, shares dropped nearly 10%, reflecting concerns over the substantial EPS miss despite strong revenue growth and robust advertising performance. Additionally, discussions on social media highlighted that adjusted EPS would have been $7.25 without the one-time charge, which further fueled mixed reactions among investors.

GOOGL | +8.1% | +295.6B
Alphabet Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Alphabet Inc reported a strong third-quarter performance, achieving $102.35 billion in revenue, surpassing analyst expectations of $99.79 billion. This marks the company's first quarter exceeding $100 billion in revenue. Earnings per share reached $2.87, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.29. Key revenue contributors included Google Search at $56.57 billion and Google Cloud at $15.16 billion, both reflecting significant year-over-year growth. The cloud backlog reached $155 billion, indicating robust enterprise demand. Following the earnings announcement, several analysts raised their price targets for Alphabet stock, with Citi setting a target of $343 and others ranging from $320 to $350. Social media discussions highlighted the positive sentiment surrounding the earnings report, noting a 16% year-over-year revenue increase and a 33% rise in Google Cloud revenue.

EBAY | -9.3% | -4.2B
eBay Inc | Broadline Retail
eBay Inc reported its Q3 financial results on October 29, 2025, revealing an adjusted EPS of 1.36, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.33. The company’s revenue for the quarter reached 2.82 billion, exceeding expectations of 2.73 billion, and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9%. Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) was reported at 20.1 billion, marking a 10% increase. Despite these positive figures, eBay's guidance for Q4 adjusted EPS is projected between 1.31 and 1.36, falling short of the consensus estimate of 1.39. The company anticipates Q4 revenue between 2.83 billion and 2.89 billion, slightly above the estimated 2.79 billion. Active buyers totaled 134 million, just shy of the estimated 135.12 million. Following the earnings announcement, eBay's stock dropped significantly by over 10%.

CVNA | -8.4% | -5.5B
Carvana Co | Automotive Retail
Carvana Co reported its third-quarter financial results on October 29, 2025. The company achieved revenue of $5.65 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $5.09 billion, and marking a year-over-year increase of 55%. Despite this, its GAAP earnings per share of $1.03 fell short of the expected $1.24. Adjusted EBITDA margins decreased to 11.3% from 11.7% year-over-year, raising concerns about margin pressure. The company sold 155,941 retail units in Q3, reflecting a 44% year-over-year increase. Following the earnings announcement, Carvana's stock declined approximately 8% in after-hours trading, with some reports indicating a drop of around 10% shortly after the results were released. Social media discussions highlighted skepticism regarding the sustainability of profitability amid contracting margins and concerns about delinquent loans in the subprime auto market.

ALGN | +13.4% | +1.5B
Align Technology Inc | Health Care Supplies
Align Technology Inc reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, achieving revenue of $995.7 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $976.3 million. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.61, exceeding expectations of $2.40. The company anticipates fourth-quarter revenue between $1.025 billion and $1.045 billion, slightly above prior forecasts. Clear aligner revenue totaled $805.8 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, with case volume rising to 647.8K, up 4.9% year-over-year. The introduction of ClinCheck Live Plan aims to streamline the Invisalign treatment planning process, while enhancements to the iTero Digital Solutions platform are designed to boost patient engagement. Following the earnings announcement, Align Technology's shares saw a significant increase of 20% shortly after the release. Currently, shares are trading at 131.91, reflecting positive reception of the earnings report among market participants.

CHRW | +13.1% | +2.3B
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc | Air Freight & Logistics
C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. reported its third-quarter results on October 29, 2025, revealing an adjusted EPS of 1.40, exceeding the analyst estimate of 1.30 by 0.10. Revenue for the quarter was 4.14 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of 4.22 billion. The company announced a $2 billion share buyback program and raised its operating income target for 2026 to a range of 965 million to 1.04 billion. Following these announcements, shares increased significantly. Social media discussions highlighted a turnaround in the third-party logistics sector for CHRW, with the stock price rising from around 70 to approximately 145 since the Q1 2024 earnings report released on May 1, under the leadership of Dave Bozeman. Additionally, Wall Street's enthusiasm grew after the earnings report, with shares rising by about 12.1% shortly after the results were released.

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