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Wednesday, October 29

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold +1.8%. Silver +2.8%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) +3.5%. Visa Inc (V) -1.1%. 

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25-basis-point interest rate cut later today, bringing the target range down to 3.75%-4.00%. This decision comes amid concerns about deteriorating labor market conditions and limited economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has left investors anticipating further monetary easing in December.

In addition, President Donald Trump’s upcoming meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday is generating optimism regarding potential trade agreements that could ease tensions between the U.S. and China. Trump's comments suggest he expects positive outcomes from this dialogue, potentially impacting global markets positively as traders look for signs of progress in these negotiations.

Market reactions have been notable; Asian equities surged ahead of these events, with Japan's Nikkei index climbing significantly by over 2%, while European stocks are mixed but generally stable amidst earnings reports and anticipation surrounding central bank decisions. The S&P 500 also reached new highs recently driven by tech stock performance linked to expectations around both Fed policy changes and favorable developments in international trade relations.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) [+2.7%]
Gold prices have rebounded above 4,000 as traders position themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision today. This recovery follows a period of weakness linked to optimism surrounding US-China trade developments. Expectations for further monetary easing from the Fed, amid limited labor market data and slower-than-expected inflation, are driving this shift. Additionally, geopolitical tensions are bolstering demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has increased by 3.0%, reflecting this uptick in gold prices, which have risen by 1.83%. Notably, top contributors to GDX's performance include Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd, and Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. Agnico Eagle is also participating in a private placement with Perpetua Resources, investing $180 million to support the development of the Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [+1.5%]
Nvidia's shares experienced a surge following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding potential discussions on easing export restrictions to China, which may enable Nvidia to expand its AI processor sales in that market. This optimism is positively affecting the semiconductor sector, which aligns with the focus of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on major technology companies. Additionally, Asian stock markets have shown gains due to favorable developments in tech advancements and U.S.-China trade negotiations. Social media discussions highlighted that mega-cap tech stocks, including SMH, have lifted indexes despite a broader market decline. Furthermore, SK Hynix's earnings call noted a daily rise in spot DRAM prices, particularly for DDR4 and DDR5, while the top contributors to SMH's performance included Nvidia and Micron, both of which posted significant returns.

TER | +15.5% | +5.4B
Teradyne Inc | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Teradyne Inc. reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, with net revenues of 769.21 million, up from 737.30 million year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached 0.85, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.79. The company provided robust guidance for the fourth quarter, projecting non-GAAP EPS between 1.20 and 1.46 and revenues ranging from 920 million to 1 billion, both exceeding analyst expectations. CEO Greg Smith attributed growth to System-on-a-Chip solutions for artificial intelligence applications. Additionally, Michelle Turner will assume the role of CFO on November 3, succeeding Sanjay Mehta. Social media discussions highlighted the strong Q3 performance and anticipated significant revenue growth for Q4, driven by increased demand related to artificial intelligence.

NVDA | +3.3% | +171.1B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp's stock is experiencing a notable increase, moving higher alongside the Semiconductors sector. BofA Securities has raised its price target from 235 to 275, maintaining a Buy rating following management meetings. President Trump is scheduled to discuss NVIDIA's advanced Blackwell AI chips with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which may influence U.S. export restrictions on these technologies. The company's market value is nearing 5 trillion, supported by over 500 billion in AI chip orders and new collaborations, including plans to construct seven supercomputers for the U.S. government. Social media highlights include the announcement of Blackwell AI GPUs being manufactured in Arizona and a significant market cap achievement, surpassing 5 trillion. Analyst upgrades, including DA Davidson raising its target from 210 to 250, reflect a positive outlook following NVIDIA's recent Global Technology Conference announcements and partnerships.

VRSK | -9.8% | -2.9B
Verisk Analytics Inc | Research & Consulting Services
Verisk Analytics Inc reported its third-quarter financial results, revealing a net income of $226 million, reflecting a modest increase from the previous year. Revenue for the quarter reached $768 million, which, while up year-over-year, fell short of the consensus estimate of $776.24 million. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.72, surpassing the expected $1.70. Nonetheless, Verisk lowered its fiscal 2025 sales guidance to a range of $3.05 billion to $3.08 billion, down from the previous estimate of $3.09 billion to $3.13 billion, and below the analyst average of $3.12 billion. This revision was attributed to a slowdown in severe weather events that affected demand for its catastrophe risk models. Following this announcement, shares dropped significantly in premarket trading.

CAT | +5.4% | +14.5B
Caterpillar Inc | Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Caterpillar Inc. reported robust third-quarter results, achieving an adjusted EPS of 4.95, surpassing the consensus estimate of 4.52. Revenues reached 17.64 billion, exceeding expectations of 16.77 billion, marking a 10% increase year-over-year. The Energy & Transportation segment was a key driver, with sales increasing by 17% to 8.4 billion. Despite this revenue growth, the operating profit margin declined to 17.3%, attributed to higher manufacturing costs. The company allocated 1.1 billion for dividends and share repurchases during the quarter, including 700 million for dividends and 400 million for stock buybacks. Concurrently, discussions on social media highlighted a decline in profit due to weak construction activity in the U.S. and tariffs from the previous administration, reflecting external challenges despite strong revenue figures.

BE | +14.6% | +4.3B
Bloom Energy Corp | Heavy Electrical Equipment
Bloom Energy Corp's stock has surged significantly, reflecting a broader movement within the Heavy Electrical Equipment sector. The company reported its third-quarter financial results on October 28, 2025, achieving an adjusted earnings per share of $0.15, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.09 by a notable margin. Revenue for the quarter reached $519 million, well above the consensus estimate of $428 million and marking a substantial year-over-year increase of 57.1%. The gross margin also improved to 29.2%, up from 23.8% in the same quarter last year. Additionally, Bloom Energy's non-GAAP operating income saw a considerable rise to $46.2 million, compared to $8.1 million in Q3 2024. Following the earnings announcement, the stock experienced a notable increase of 10%. The company concluded the quarter with approximately $595 million in cash and cash equivalents.

CNC | +9.8% | +1.9B
Centene Corp | Managed Health Care
Centene Corporation reported its third-quarter earnings, revealing adjusted earnings per share of $0.50, significantly surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of a loss. Revenue for the quarter reached $49.69 billion, exceeding expectations and marking a substantial year-over-year increase. The company also raised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $2.00, up from a prior forecast of $1.75. Despite these positive figures, Centene reported a GAAP loss of $13.50 per share due to a substantial non-cash goodwill impairment of $6.7 billion. The health benefits ratio increased to 92.7%, reflecting rising costs associated with marketplace and Medicaid services. Following the earnings announcement, Centene's stock experienced a notable increase in pre-market trading.

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