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Monday, January 5

Noteworthy macro moves today: Copper +4.3%. Gold +1.9%. USD/CNH +0.2%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +3.0%. Visa Inc (V) -0.7%.

Global equity markets are trading higher as investors react to the recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela, which have led to significant movements in energy stocks and commodities. The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has raised expectations for U.S. control over the country's oil resources, boosting shares of major oil companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

In addition to geopolitical developments, economic data releases are influencing market sentiment. The Bank of England reported a slight decline in mortgage approvals but an increase in consumer credit, suggesting mixed signals about household financial health amid rising interest rates. This backdrop is contributing to cautious optimism among investors as they await further economic indicators this week.

Furthermore, Federal Reserve officials are expressing concerns about inflation persistence while acknowledging a cooling job market. Fed President Neel Kashkari's remarks indicate that while inflation may be trending down, there remains a risk of rising unemployment, which could impact future monetary policy decisions and investor sentiment moving forward.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) [+3.9%]
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has seen a notable increase of 4.3% in pre-market trading. This rise coincides with significant geopolitical developments, including the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, which is expected to impact global energy markets. Renewed attention on the U.S.–Venezuela standoff has led to discussions about potential shifts in sanctions affecting Venezuela's vast, largely untapped oil reserves. Social media buzz highlights substantial gains among XLE's top holdings, particularly Chevron, which surged significantly following news of U.S. control over Venezuelan oil reserves. Additionally, OPEC's decision to maintain oil output levels amid fluctuating crude prices further influences market dynamics. The top contributors to XLE's performance include Chevron, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Schlumberger, and Marathon Petroleum, all of which have posted increased returns.

Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) [+1.1%]
The Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) has seen a daily return increase of 1.03%, coinciding with heightened market sentiment following U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the anticipated revitalization of Venezuelan oil production. Additionally, significant price hikes for server DRAM chips announced by Samsung Electronics amid an AI boom are likely benefiting technology sector ETFs like VGT due to increased demand. Among VGT's holdings, NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD, Intel, and Applied Materials have all posted positive returns, contributing to the ETF's overall performance.

CVX | +6.7% | +20.5B
Chevron Corp | Integrated Oil & Gas
Chevron Corp's stock price has increased significantly, driven by geopolitical developments in Venezuela. Following the U.S. military intervention and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, there is renewed interest in U.S. energy firms re-engaging with Venezuelan oil assets. Reports suggest that U.S. officials are encouraging investments to revitalize the Venezuelan oil sector, positioning Chevron as a key player due to its ongoing operations under a special Treasury license. The company currently accounts for 25% of Venezuela's oil production. Additionally, a former Chevron executive is seeking $2 billion for Venezuelan oil projects, further indicating potential opportunities in the region. Social media discussions highlight Chevron's strategic positioning amid these developments, with significant increases in market capitalization and trading activity noted in recent sessions. The iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF has also risen, reflecting positive sentiment in the oil sector, which may correlate with Chevron's stock performance.

VLO | +7.7% | +4.5B
Valero Energy Corp | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Valero Energy Corp has seen its stock price increase significantly, moving up 8.0% since the previous close. This uptick coincides with renewed U.S. government interest in Venezuela's oil sector, as highlighted by Vice President JD Vance, who discussed the geopolitical implications of drug trafficking linked to Venezuelan oil assets. Anticipated investments aimed at restoring Venezuela's oil infrastructure may benefit Valero, given its refineries' capability to process heavy crude oil. Social media discussions have noted Valero's advantageous Gulf Coast location for refining difficult-to-process oil, reinforcing its strong market position. Concurrently, related assets such as the iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF and Chevron Corp have also experienced notable increases, suggesting a robust performance across the oil and gas sector.

HAL | +8.3% | +2.4B
Halliburton Co | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Halliburton Co shares surged significantly in premarket trading, driven by U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and a call from government officials for oil executives to invest in the region's oil sector. This renewed focus on Venezuela aligns with Halliburton's historical presence and positions the company favorably alongside peers like Chevron and Schlumberger. Social media discussions highlighted a notable spike in Halliburton's stock, coinciding with a broader rise in the Oil Services and Equipment Index. Additionally, the iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF experienced an increase, reflecting positive sentiment in the oil services sector, which is often correlated with Halliburton's performance. The geopolitical landscape surrounding Venezuela's vast oil reserves adds further context to the current market dynamics impacting Halliburton.

SLB | +7.5% | +4.7B
Schlumberger NV | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Schlumberger NV has experienced a significant price increase, coinciding with a notable rise in the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector. Reports indicate that Schlumberger's stock spiked as trading opened on Sunday, reflecting a broader positive sentiment in the oil services market. Social media discussions highlighted a 12% surge in Schlumberger, linking its performance to the overall upward movement of the Oil Services and Equipment sector. Additionally, the iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF has risen substantially, further aligning with Schlumberger's 6.8% increase. Conversations also referenced former President Trump's comments regarding oil companies' interest in Venezuela, which may have influenced market dynamics.

COP | +5.5% | +6.5B
Conocophillips | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
ConocoPhillips shares have reached a 39-week high, trading at 100.01, marking the highest level since April 2025. This follows a notable increase over the past four weeks. Despite this recent performance, the stock has seen a decline over the last year. Concurrently, Chevron Corp has experienced a significant rise, which may influence movements in ConocoPhillips, given their historical correlation. Analysts maintain a consensus recommendation of "Moderate Buy" for ConocoPhillips, with a positive outlook reflected in raised earnings forecasts for FY2026. Several quarterly estimates have also been adjusted upward, although some mid-cycle expectations have been slightly downgraded, indicating a balanced sentiment among analysts.

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