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Tuesday, November 5

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: Copper +1.3%. 

The U.S. presidential election is the dominant event influencing market sentiment today, with traders closely monitoring results between candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The uncertainty surrounding potential policy changes based on the election outcome has led to cautious trading behavior across various asset classes, particularly in equities and currencies.

Recent economic data releases have also contributed to market dynamics; notably, the U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly to $84.4 billion in September 2024—its highest level since April 2022—which may impact perceptions of economic health ahead of key monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve later this week that are expected to include a rate cut.

In addition, positive signals emerged from China as its Caixin Services PMI rose above expectations at 52 for October, indicating improving conditions within its economy amidst ongoing global uncertainties related to elections and fiscal policies worldwide. This development could influence commodity prices positively while providing some support for risk assets globally amid heightened volatility leading up to significant political events.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) [-0.4%]
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has experienced a decline of 0.4% in pre-market trading. Social media discussions highlight concerns regarding U.S. economic policies under the Biden-Harris administration, which are perceived as potentially destabilizing due to excessive spending and rising public debt. An article by Daniel Lacalle notes that government deficit spending has reached nearly $2 trillion annually, contributing to a public debt nearing $36 trillion. This backdrop of rising inflation expectations may negatively affect TLT. Additionally, technical analysis suggests a potential bullish crossover for U.S. Treasury Bonds, with a close above $93.5 indicating a possible positive shift for TLT. Meanwhile, the U.S. presidential election is underway, and expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points this week are contributing to market volatility, further impacting Treasury yields and TLT's performance. The US 5Y Treasury Bond has also declined, reflecting broader market sentiment affecting TLT.

iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) [+2.2%]
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has experienced a price increase of 2.2% since Monday. The Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index for October was reported at 52.0, exceeding expectations and indicating expansion in the services sector. This positive economic data has contributed to favorable market sentiment in Asia, with the Shanghai Composite rising significantly, alongside gains in the Shenzhen CSI 300 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng. Concurrently, the U.S. presidential election is creating uncertainty in financial markets, which may influence FXI. Additionally, OPEC's decision to delay increasing oil production has led to rising crude prices, potentially affecting energy stocks within the ETF's holdings. Among these holdings, JD, TCOM, YUMC, and LI have shown notable returns, contributing positively to the ETF's performance.

PLTR | +14.3% | +15.1B
Palantir Technologies Inc | Application Software
Palantir Technologies Inc. reported strong third-quarter results, with revenue of $725.5 million, marking a 30% year-over-year increase, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.10, surpassing estimates of $0.09. U.S. revenue rose 44% to $499 million, fueled by a 54% increase in commercial revenue. The company closed 104 deals exceeding $1 million and raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $2.805 billion and $2.809 billion. Following these announcements, shares surged approximately 14% in overnight trading, crossing the $47 mark. Social media discussions highlighted the company's robust performance and strategic positioning in the AI sector, with CEO Alex Karp emphasizing strong demand for AI solutions. Additionally, Palantir raised its Q4 2025 revenue guidance to between $767 million and $771 million, up from previous estimates.

BA | +1.6% | +1.5B
Boeing Co | Aerospace & Defense
Boeing Co. recently concluded a seven-week strike, with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers ratifying a new four-year contract. This agreement, which received support from the Biden administration, includes a 43.65% compounded wage increase and a $12,000 ratification bonus. It also features a 38% wage increase over the contract period, enhanced retirement contributions, and improved health benefits for approximately 33,000 workers in Washington, Oregon, and California. Following the announcement of this contract, Boeing shares saw increased trading activity, closing at $155.07 on Monday with gains continuing in after-hours trading. The contract's approval marks a pivotal moment for the company, allowing it to shift focus back to production and stabilize operations after the strike that significantly impacted jetliner output.

DD | +2.2%| +764.8M
Dupont De Nemours Inc | Specialty Chemicals
DuPont De Nemours Inc reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.18, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.03, and reflecting a notable increase from 0.92 in the prior year. Revenue for the quarter reached 3.192 billion, slightly below the expected 3.204 billion, yet up 4.38% year-over-year from 3.058 billion. The company has raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to 3.90, up from a previous range of 3.70 to 3.80, while lowering its revenue outlook to 12.37 billion from an earlier forecast of 12.40 billion to 12.50 billion. Operating EBITDA for the full year is now projected at 3.13 billion, an increase from previous estimates. Additionally, discussions on social media highlight a recovery in demand for electronics and improvements in water and medical packaging markets, contributing to a pre-market increase in the stock price of approximately 2.2%.

ADM | -8.0%| -2.0B
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co | Agricultural Products & Services
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) reported preliminary third-quarter results revealing a significant decline in earnings. The company posted net earnings of $18 million, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) at $1.09, missing the expected $1.25 and down from $1.63 year-over-year. CEO Juan Luciano noted mixed results stemming from softer market conditions and operational challenges in the Ag Services and Oilseeds sectors. ADM also disclosed expanded accounting issues necessitating restatements of its fiscal year 2023 filings and the first two quarters of 2024. Consequently, the company has lowered its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $4.50 to $5.00, down from $5.25 to $6.25. The planned conference call for Q3 results has been postponed as ADM works to finalize its financial statements. Following these developments, shares have dropped significantly, reflecting a series of troubling revelations shared widely on social media.

DJT | +8.2% | +541.3M
Digital World Acquisition Corp
Digital World Acquisition Corp (DJT) has experienced a notable rise in pre-market trading, increasing by 8% shortly after a prior gain of over 5%. This follows a previous closing price that was significantly higher. The stock's movement is perceived as a reflection of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, with polling data indicating a competitive race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Social media discussions have highlighted DJT's volatility, with predictions suggesting extreme price fluctuations depending on the election outcome. Joe Rogan's endorsement of Trump has also surfaced in conversations, potentially influencing public sentiment. Additionally, there are reports of mixed options activity among investors, showing a divergence in sentiment towards the stock.

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