ECB Cuts Rates Amid Economic Weakness; IBM Soars on Strong Earnings While Microsoft Struggles | MarketReader Minute
ECB Cuts Interest Rates Amid Eurozone Economic Challenges, While U.S. Jobless Claims Fall and Major European Economies Show Stagnation.
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Thursday, January 30
Some of the largest macro moves in the market today: Ethereum +4.3%. Gold +0.9%. STI 30 Index (Singapore) +1.6%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Broadcom Inc (AVGO) +5.1%. Tesla Inc (TSLA) +4.7%. Microsoft Corp (MSFT) -4.4%.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.75% and signaling a cautious approach amid ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone. This decision comes as inflationary pressures have eased somewhat but remain elevated due to delayed wage adjustments and corporate profit absorption of costs.
In addition, recent U.S. economic data shows that initial jobless claims fell more than expected, dropping by 16,000 to reach 207,000 for the week ending January 25th. This decline suggests stability in the labor market which may allow for sustained restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve despite slower GDP growth reported at an annualized rate of only 2.3% for Q4 compared with expectations of stronger performance.
Lastly, preliminary GDP figures indicate stagnation across major economies within Europe: France's economy contracted by -0.1%, Germany shrank -0.2%, while Italy showed no growth during Q4—highlighting significant headwinds facing these nations amidst broader concerns about trade dynamics influenced by potential tariffs under President Trump's administration.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) [+0.9%]
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) saw a price increase of 0.9% in premarket trading, aligning with a decline in yields. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.502%, down from a high of 4.591% the previous day, and reached new lows at 4.497%. This decrease in yields typically correlates with the performance of long-duration bond ETFs. Additionally, the US 30-Year Treasury Bond experienced a rise of 0.5% since Wednesday, reflecting the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%. This cautious stance amid inflation and economic concerns has exerted upward pressure on US Treasury yields. Conversations on social media highlighted implications from the recent FOMC meeting, with discussions around inflation, employment, and potential rate cuts anticipated in March due to a softening economy and labor market.
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) [+1.3%]
In pre-market trading on Thursday, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has seen a price increase of 1.3%. Recent social media discussions noted a previous closing decline of 0.25%, alongside decreases in major indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Political commentary involving President Trump and the Federal Reserve may contribute to market volatility. Additionally, the ETF's performance was positively influenced by significant movements in its holdings, particularly Calix Inc., which reported better-than-expected financial results. Macroeconomic factors also played a role; the U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2024 was reported below expectations, while jobless claims fell significantly, indicating labor market resilience. Furthermore, the Russell 2000 Index experienced a nearly 0.9% increase, buoyed by the European Central Bank's interest rate cut and positive earnings from major companies like IBM.
IBM | +9.3% | +21.3B
International Business Machines Corp | IT Consulting & Other Services
International Business Machines Corp reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, exceeding analyst expectations and resulting in a notable surge in its stock price. The company achieved an adjusted earnings per share of 3.92, surpassing the consensus estimate of 3.75, while revenue reached 17.55 billion, slightly above the anticipated 17.54 billion. This performance was supported by a 10% increase in software revenue, although consulting and infrastructure segments experienced declines of 2% and 8%, respectively. CEO Arvind Krishna emphasized significant investments in artificial intelligence, with the generative AI business exceeding 5 billion. IBM projects at least 5% revenue growth for 2025 and anticipates free cash flow of approximately 13.5 billion. Following the announcement, shares rose significantly in after-hours trading, reflecting positive market sentiment.
MSFT | -4.0% | -125.3B
Microsoft Corp | Systems Software
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) shares declined over 4% in premarket trading following its fiscal Q2 results. The company reported revenue of $69.6 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $68.78 billion, and GAAP earnings per share of $3.23, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.11. Despite these positive figures, growth in the cloud segment fell short, with Azure revenue growth at 31%, missing the anticipated 31.8%. Microsoft adjusted price targets downward from several analysts, including Wolfe, which reduced its target from 515 to 475, and Mizuho, which lowered it from 510 to 500. Additionally, cloud revenue reached $40.9 billion, slightly below the estimated $41.1 billion. CEO Satya Nadella highlighted that the AI business achieved an annual revenue run rate of $13 billion, reflecting a 175% year-over-year increase, but mixed performance metrics have raised concerns about future growth potential.
TSLA | +4.8% | +62.3B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc is experiencing a notable increase in its stock price, aligning with a broader upward movement in the Automobile Manufacturers sector. Recent statements from CEO Elon Musk have highlighted 2025 as a pivotal year for the company, with expectations for growth in its vehicle business. Musk noted significant interest from major automakers in licensing Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and announced plans to launch unsupervised FSD as a paid service in Austin, Texas, by June. The company is also set to construct a third Megapack factory and anticipates a 50% year-over-year increase in energy storage deployments. Despite a recent earnings report revealing an adjusted EPS that missed expectations and a drop in automotive revenue, analysts from Piper Sandler and Morgan Stanley have maintained bullish price targets for Tesla, suggesting ongoing optimism in its long-term prospects.
WDC | +5.6% | +1.2B
Western Digital Corp | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Western Digital Corp (NASDAQ: WDC) reported its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings on January 29, revealing an adjusted EPS of $1.77, which fell short of the consensus estimate of $1.82. Revenue reached $4.29 billion, slightly surpassing expectations of $4.26 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 41%. The adjusted gross margin stood at 35.4%. For Q3, the company anticipates revenue between $3.75 billion and $3.95 billion and an adjusted EPS forecast of $0.90 to $1.20, both below consensus estimates. Social media discussions highlighted concerns regarding the company's guidance, particularly due to a noted decline in demand from the cloud sector. Concurrently, Celestica Inc (CLS) experienced a notable share price increase, attributed to its strong fourth-quarter results, which may be influencing market sentiment around correlated assets like Western Digital.
NOW | -10.1% | -21.2B
ServiceNow Inc| Systems Software
ServiceNow Inc's stock has dropped significantly following the release of its fourth-quarter financial results on January 29, 2025. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.67, aligning with analyst expectations, while revenue reached $2.96 billion, meeting consensus estimates. Subscription revenues increased by 21% year-over-year to $2.87 billion. However, guidance for future subscription revenue was lowered, with estimates for the upcoming fiscal year projected between $12.64 billion and $12.68 billion, below the anticipated $12.87 billion. Remaining performance obligations stood at $10.27 billion, reflecting a 19% year-over-year growth. Following the earnings announcement, shares fell approximately 10% in after-hours trading, as social media discussions highlighted concerns over the lighter-than-expected forecast despite positive quarterly results.
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