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Thursday, April 17

Noteworthy macro moves today: Nasdaq 100 Index (US) +1.0%. S&P 500 Index (US) +0.7%. Dow Jones Index (US) -1.3%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) -19.7%. Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) +11.8%. Apple Inc (AAPL) +1.3%. 

The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced a 25 basis point cut to its key interest rates, bringing the deposit rate down to 2.25%. This decision reflects growing confidence that inflation is on track toward the target of 2%, despite ongoing concerns about global trade tensions impacting economic growth in the euro area.

In U.S. economic data released today, initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly by 9,000 to a two-month low of 215,000 for early April. However, continuing claims rose significantly by over 41,000 and housing starts dropped sharply by more than eleven percent month-over-month in March—indicating potential weaknesses within certain sectors of the economy amidst broader market uncertainties related to tariffs and trade policies.

Market sentiment remains cautious as major equity indices are mixed; while tech shares have shown some resilience with Nasdaq futures up approximately one percent following recent declines due largely to tariff-related news affecting companies like Nvidia Corp., other markets such as European stocks exhibit weakness ahead of holiday closures this weekend amid lingering worries regarding U.S.-China relations and their implications for global growth dynamics.

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) [-1.5%]
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) is down 1.5% in pre-market trading, reflecting broader market concerns following disappointing results from UnitedHealth Group (UNH). UNH's significant decline has negatively impacted sentiment towards the Dow Jones Industrial Average. President Trump's recent criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding interest rates adds to the prevailing uncertainty. Additionally, the Dow Jones Index is down approximately 1.5%, amid heightened volatility linked to Powell's comments on rising tariffs and inflation risks. Social media discussions noted a substantial loss in stock market value, with the Dow experiencing a decline of 1.72%, attributed to late news regarding Nvidia (NVDA). Among the ETF's holdings, UNH and other contributors have also reported negative returns, with American Express (AXP) facing a decline despite strong earnings results.

Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) [-1.2%]
The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) has seen a decline of 1.2% since Wednesday. Notably, UnitedHealth Group's disappointing first-quarter results have led to significant drops in its stock price, contributing to a notable decline in XLV's performance. Elevance Health Inc and Humana Inc also experienced substantial decreases following UnitedHealth's lowered earnings outlook. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Index has dropped by 1.29%, reflecting a general downturn in market sentiment that may be impacting XLV. In contrast, initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to a two-month low, suggesting a tight labor market; however, this had less impact on XLV compared to other macroeconomic factors.

UNH | -20.0% | -86.1B
UnitedHealth Group Inc | Managed Health Care
UnitedHealth Group Inc has reported disappointing first-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of 7.20 per share, falling short of the consensus estimate of 7.29. Revenue also missed expectations, coming in at 109.58 billion compared to the anticipated 111.60 billion. In response, the company revised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance down to a range of 26.00 to 26.50 from a previous estimate of 29.50 to 30.00, which was below analysts' expectations of 29.74. The adjustments were attributed to increased care activity within its Medicare Advantage segment and changes in the profile of Optum Health members affecting reimbursement plans. Following these announcements, UnitedHealth's stock experienced a significant decline of approximately 20% in pre-market trading, impacting broader market indices and dragging down Dow futures significantly.

LLY | +13.3% | +104.9B
Eli Lilly and Co | Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly and Company announced positive topline results from its Phase 3 ACHIEVE-1 trial for orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 receptor agonist targeting type 2 diabetes. The trial showed a statistically significant A1C reduction of 1.3% to 1.6% from a baseline of 8.0% after 40 weeks, with over 65% of participants on the highest dose achieving an A1C level below 6.5%. Participants also experienced an average weight loss of 16 lbs (7.9%) at this dosage. The safety profile aligned with existing GLP-1 therapies, and CEO David A. Ricks expressed confidence in the drug's potential global launch if approved. Social media reports highlighted the trial's success, noting that it positively impacted Eli Lilly's stock, which increased significantly this morning. Discussions emphasized the competitive advantage of orforglipron's potential launch without supply constraints compared to other companies in the market.

GPN | -7.4% | -1.5B
Global Payments Inc | Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Global Payments Inc. is set to acquire Worldpay for $24.25 billion, confirmed by GTCR's announcement today. This acquisition is part of a transformative three-way deal, which also sees FIS acquiring Global Payments' Issuer Solutions business for an enterprise value of $13.5 billion. The Worldpay acquisition will be financed through a mix of cash and stock, with GTCR receiving 59% cash and 41% stock consideration. Following the transaction, GTCR will retain shares representing approximately 15% of Global Payments' outstanding shares. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. Additionally, FIS will divest its interest in Worldpay to Global Payments for $6.6 billion while enhancing its position in the global fintech sector.

BX | +2.4% | +3.8B
Blackstone Inc | Asset Management & Custody Banks
Blackstone Inc reported its Q1 2025 earnings this morning, revealing a distributable EPS of 1.09, exceeding the analyst estimate of 1.06. Revenue reached 3.29 billion, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.94 billion. Inflows for the quarter totaled 61.64 billion, well above the expected 45.79 billion, marking the highest level in nearly three years. The company's total assets under management stood at 1.17 trillion, with real estate assets around 320 billion and private equity assets increasing by 16% year-over-year to nearly 371 billion. Blackstone's Chairman, Stephen Schwarzman, noted a substantial dry powder of 177 billion available for deployment. Social media discussions highlighted these strong quarterly results, with an investor webcast scheduled for tomorrow to discuss the earnings further. Blackstone's market capitalization is currently at 158 billion.

DHI | -2.8% | -1.0B
DR Horton Inc | Homebuilding
D.R. Horton Inc. reported fiscal Q2 2025 earnings per share of $2.58, missing the consensus estimate of $2.63. Revenue for the quarter was $7.73 billion, below the expected $8.03 billion. The company revised its full-year revenue guidance to between $33.3 billion and $34.8 billion, down from a previous range of $36 billion to $37.5 billion. Additionally, homes closed by homebuilding operations are now projected to be between 85,000 and 87,000, reduced from an earlier forecast of 90,000 to 92,000 homes. Following this announcement, shares of D.R. Horton traded lower in premarket activity, reflecting a decline in stock performance. The overall sentiment on social media echoed disappointment regarding the earnings report, noting significant misses in both earnings and revenue expectations.

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