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Thursday, June 26

Noteworthy macro moves today: Copper +2.5%. US Dollar Index -0.4%. Platinum +3.5%. 

The US dollar is experiencing significant weakness, with the Dollar Index dropping to near 97.00 for the first time since March 2022. This decline has been attributed to ongoing tensions between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding interest rate policies, as well as a recent ceasefire in Israel-Iran relations that diminished demand for safe-haven assets like the USD.

Recent economic data releases have shown mixed results impacting market sentiment. Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 but remained above this year's average at 236,000; meanwhile, corporate profits decreased by less than expected at -3.3% compared to prior estimates of -3.6%. Additionally, durable goods orders surged unexpectedly by 16.4%, indicating potential resilience in manufacturing despite broader concerns about consumer spending and trade deficits.

In Europe, Germany's GfK Consumer Climate Indicator declined more than anticipated ahead of July while ECB officials noted surprising calmness in markets amid geopolitical events affecting financial stability across regions—suggesting an environment where central bank policy will be closely monitored moving forward amidst these uncertainties.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [+1.0%]
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has risen by 1.0% in pre-market trading, buoyed by positive developments in the semiconductor sector. Micron Technology reported strong third-quarter earnings, exceeding expectations with revenue of $9.30 billion and forecasting fourth-quarter revenue between $10.4 billion and $11 billion, driven by robust demand for AI-related memory products. This aligns with SMH's focus on major U.S.-listed semiconductor companies. Additionally, notable gains were seen among key holdings: Marvell Technology increased by 2%, Advanced Micro Devices rose by 1.7%, and Nvidia gained 1.1%. Nvidia also announced a collaboration with Cyngn for autonomous vehicle solutions, highlighting its strategic shift towards robotics alongside AI. Technical analysis discussions on social media suggest that the ETF's price objective has been reached at 277, indicating a shift in market sentiment.

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) [-0.4%]
The U.S. Dollar Index declined significantly, reaching multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc. This decline was influenced by concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and criticism of Chair Jerome Powell by former President Trump. Economic data revealed a notable drop in U.S. new home sales and a decrease in building permits. Concurrently, gold and silver prices rallied, with gold futures closing higher after a selloff. The USDX has weakened further, reflecting broader market sentiment, which may also be impacting the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP). The USD/JPY currency pair has similarly declined, mirroring the overall trend of the dollar's performance.

MKC | +6.2% | +1.3B
McCormick & Company Inc | Packaged Foods & Meats
McCormick & Company Inc. reported its Q2 earnings, revealing an adjusted EPS of 0.69, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 0.66. Quarterly sales reached 1.659 billion, slightly above the expected 1.658 billion, marking a modest increase from 1.643 billion in the same quarter last year. The company reaffirmed its FY25 outlook, maintaining adjusted EPS guidance of 3.03 to 3.08, which aligns closely with the analyst estimate of 3.04. Additionally, McCormick anticipates net sales growth between 0% and 2% for FY25. Social media discussions have noted the stock's rally following the reaffirmation of its full-year profit guidance and reported sales growth in the fiscal second quarter, alongside rising costs management confidence.

MU | +1.8% | +2.6B
Micron Technology Inc | Semiconductors
Micron Technology Inc. experienced a price increase in pre-market trading, aligning with a broader market rally. The company reported strong financial results for its third quarter of fiscal 2025, with revenue reaching $9.30 billion, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of $8.87 billion and up from $6.81 billion year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $1.91, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.60. Micron anticipates fourth-quarter revenue between $10.4 billion and $11 billion, also above analyst estimates. Notably, data center revenue more than doubled year-over-year, driven by heightened demand for memory products, particularly in artificial intelligence applications. This robust performance has generated positive sentiment on social media, with discussions highlighting the company's strong earnings and optimistic guidance for future quarters.

JEF | -2.1% | -242.9M
Jefferies Financial Group Inc | Investment Banking & Brokerage
Jefferies Financial Group Inc reported its Q2 results, posting a net income of $88 million, which translates to earnings per share of $0.40, falling short of analyst expectations of $0.44. Revenue for the quarter was $1.63 billion, exceeding estimates of $1.56 billion, but reflecting a 1.3% decline year-over-year. Notably, equity underwriting revenue dropped significantly to $122.4 million from $249.2 million a year earlier, while debt underwriting revenue remained flat. Following these results, shares of Jefferies fell approximately 3%. Conversations on social media highlighted the earnings miss and the decline in equity underwriting performance, alongside comments from CEO Rich Handler and President Brian Friedman expressing optimism about the second half of 2025 due to a strong backlog and active client discussions.

NVDA | +1.5% | +59.7B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp recently announced a collaboration with Cyngn at the Automatica 2025 showcase, focusing on the NVIDIA Isaac robotics platform to develop autonomous vehicle solutions for industrial applications. This partnership aims to enhance operational efficiency and safety in commercial settings. CEO Lior Tal emphasized the collaboration's significance in advancing autonomous vehicle technology, while NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang noted a substantial growth opportunity in robotics, with a 72% annual increase in this division contributing $567 million in quarterly sales. NVIDIA's market capitalization has reached approximately $3.75 trillion, making it the most valuable company globally. Concurrently, social media buzz indicates discussions with Foxconn to deploy humanoid robots in Houston, with production expected to commence next year. NVIDIA shares rose significantly, marking their first record close since January and reflecting strong institutional interest amid a broader positive sentiment in the tech sector.

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