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Thursday, October 9

Noteworthy macro moves today: Copper +2.9%. USD/CNH -0.3%. Ethereum -2.7%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has indicated that its current policy stance is appropriate for achieving the 2% medium-term inflation target, as revealed in the minutes from their September meeting. While there are concerns about rising geopolitical tensions and potential impacts on fiscal policy due to increased defense spending, ECB officials believe interest rates remain robust enough to handle these risks. The euro area economy shows signs of strength but also faces challenges with weak growth.

In Germany, recent economic data reflect a concerning trend; imports fell by 1.3%, marking an eight-month low while exports unexpectedly dropped by 0.5%. This decline was attributed primarily to weaker demand within EU countries and ongoing U.S.-imposed tariffs affecting trade dynamics significantly—particularly impacting shipments from major partners like China and the United States.

Meanwhile, political instability in France continues to exert pressure on the euro following Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's resignation amid budgetary struggles faced by President Macron’s administration. As markets await news regarding his successor expected soon, this uncertainty contributes further volatility alongside existing pressures stemming from broader macroeconomic conditions across Europe.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) [+2.0%]
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has seen its price increase by 1.6% during the pre-market session, coinciding with silver trading at 49.37 per troy ounce. This rise follows the announcement of a historic peace agreement between Israel and Hamas, which includes provisions for hostage releases and troop withdrawals, thereby easing geopolitical tensions. Such developments have bolstered safe-haven demand for silver, even as technical indicators point to overbought conditions. Additionally, the United States Copper Index Fund has increased, reflecting broader market movements that historically correlate with silver prices. The uptick in copper prices may be influencing silver's performance, given their status as key industrial metals.

Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) [+2.8%]
The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) has experienced a price increase of 2.8% since Wednesday, driven by recent geopolitical developments. A peace agreement between Israel and Hamas has eased tensions, contributing to a rise in copper prices as demand for safe-haven assets like gold diminishes. Concurrently, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is affecting economic data releases and may lead to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could bolster commodity markets including copper mining stocks represented by COPX. Significant contributors to COPX's performance include FCX, SCCO, TECK, BHP, and HBM, with BHP shares reaching a five-week high despite a decline over the past year. Additionally, the United States Copper Index Fund (CPER) has risen by 2.30%, reflecting broader market movements that likely influence COPX's performance.

RACE | -11.9% | -9.8B
Ferrari NV | Automobile Manufacturers
Ferrari NV experienced a significant decline in its share price following updates during its Capital Markets Day. The company raised its financial guidance for FY25, projecting revenues of at least €7.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of at least €2.72 billion. It also aims for adjusted EPS of at least €8.80 and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 40% of net profit starting in 2025, alongside a €3.5 billion share repurchase program. However, concerns arose as Ferrari halved its 2030 target for electric vehicles to 20% of its product mix, emphasizing a continued reliance on internal combustion engines and hybrids. Discussions on social media reflected apprehension regarding the company’s cautious outlook and weaker-than-expected growth projections, resulting in a drop of approximately 14% in premarket trading, marking the largest decline since 2016.

DAL | +6.8% | +2.7B
Delta Air Lines Inc | Passenger Airlines
Delta Air Lines reported strong third-quarter results, achieving adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.71, surpassing analyst estimates of 1.53, and generating revenue of 16.67 billion, exceeding expectations of 15.04 billion. The airline's net income rose to 1.42 billion from 1.27 billion year-over-year, with an operating margin of 10.1%. Delta has raised its adjusted EPS guidance for the fourth quarter to a range of 1.60 to 1.90, slightly above the consensus estimate of 1.68. Additionally, the company increased its annual EPS forecast to approximately 6, up from previous estimates of 5.25 to 6.25. Recent sales trends show a robust recovery in corporate travel demand and acceleration across all markets over the past six weeks, positioning Delta favorably for the upcoming December quarter. Following these announcements, DAL shares experienced a notable increase in pre-market trading.

UAL | +5.3% | +1.8B
United Airlines Holdings Inc | Passenger Airlines
United Airlines Holdings Inc is experiencing a notable price increase, aligning with a broader upward movement in the Passenger Airlines sector. This follows Delta Air Lines' recent adjustment of its full-year earnings per share forecast to approximately $6, surpassing analyst expectations. The positive sentiment in the airline industry is further bolstered by Delta's strong third-quarter results, which reported an adjusted operating income of $1.7 billion and an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter. Additionally, United Airlines is set to announce its Q3 FY2025 earnings after market close on October 15, 2025, with an EPS estimate of $2.66 and a revenue estimate of $15.3 billion. This combination of factors contributes to the current momentum observed in United Airlines' stock price.

COST | +1.4% | +5.8B
Costco Wholesale Corp | Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Costco Wholesale Corp reported net sales of $26.58 billion for September, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase. This figure, covering the five weeks ending October 5, 2025, was accompanied by a total comparable sales rise of 5.7%. In the U.S., comparable sales increased by 5.1%, while Canada saw a 6.3% rise and international markets grew by 8.5%. Notably, digitally-enabled sales surged by 26.1%. These results were released on October 8 and contributed to a price increase in Costco shares during after-hours trading, moving from $914 to $932, a gain of $17.

FCX | +3.9% | +2.5B
Freeport-McMoRan Inc | Copper
Freeport-McMoRan Inc is experiencing a notable price increase, moving in tandem with the Copper sub-sector, which is also rising significantly. Recent social media discussions reveal that Citi upgraded Freeport-McMoRan to a "Buy" rating from "Neutral," setting a target price of $48, while Morgan Stanley adjusted its target downward from $48 to $46. Additionally, Citi forecasts copper prices to reach $12,000 by 2026. BHP Group Ltd has seen an increase, reaching a five-week high, while the United States Copper Index Fund has also risen, reflecting broader trends in copper prices. Furthermore, Freeport-McMoRan's volatility has been heightened by macroeconomic events, including Initial Jobless Claims data and speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which typically influence the stock more than the sector average.

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