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Thursday, January 29

Noteworthy macro moves today: Copper +8.4%. Oil (WTI) +2.7%. Gold +1.9%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Meta Platforms Inc (META) +9.3%. Microsoft Corp (MSFT) -6.9%. Mastercard Inc (MA) +2.3%.

Global equity markets are trading mixed as investors react to a series of economic data releases and corporate earnings reports. Notably, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data released today showed an increase to 209,000 claims for the week ending January 24th, slightly above expectations of a decrease to 205,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims fell more significantly than anticipated to about 1.827 million.

In Europe, equity indices are generally higher following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged amid ongoing inflation concerns and solid economic growth indicators. The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator surged to a three-year high of 99.4 in January, exceeding market expectations and reflecting improved confidence among consumers and businesses alike.

Commodity prices have seen significant movements today; copper prices rose by over 8%, driven by strong demand signals, while oil (WTI) increased by approximately 2.7% amid geopolitical tensions affecting supply dynamics. Gold also gained nearly 2% as investors sought safe-haven assets in light of these uncertainties.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+2.8%]
Gold prices have surged significantly, reaching a record high above $5,590 per ounce following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) increased notably, gaining during regular trading and continuing its ascent in after-hours trading. Retail sentiment around GLD has turned extremely bullish, with discussions on social media highlighting a fresh closing high post-FOMC meeting and a parabolic move in metals. Implied volatility for gold has surged to its highest level since the pandemic, reflecting heightened market activity. Concurrently, geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar have bolstered gold's appeal, while significant increases in export prices for non-monetary gold from Australia have contributed to safe-haven demand. Additionally, the United States Copper Index Fund has experienced a substantial increase, which may correlate with the recent movement in GLD.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+2.9%]
Brent Crude prices have reached a high of 70.35 per barrel, while WTI crude has increased by nearly 2% to 64.42 per barrel. This surge comes amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with President Trump warning of potential military action if Iran does not agree to a nuclear deal, raising concerns over supply disruptions. Additionally, Citgo Petroleum has acquired its first cargo of Venezuelan oil since 2019, purchasing approximately 500,000 barrels from Trafigura for February delivery. Despite perceptions of global oversupply and resumed production from Kazakhstan and the U.S., oil prices remain strong. Social media discussions have also highlighted a significant naval presence heading to Iran, which has implications for the market, alongside mentions of the lower value of the U.S. dollar.

SAP | -16.0% | -37.1B
Sap Se | Application Software
SAP SE's stock has dropped significantly, reflecting disappointing cloud backlog growth and weaker-than-expected revenue forecasts for 2026. The company reported a 25% increase in its current cloud backlog, slightly below the anticipated figure. CFO Dominik Asam noted a more pronounced slowdown, attributing it to shifts toward larger digital transformation projects with longer ramp-up periods. In its fourth-quarter results, SAP recorded cloud revenue growth and total revenue that aligned with estimates. Nonetheless, guidance indicated a deceleration in constant currency total revenue growth for 2026. Concurrently, SAP announced a new share repurchase program valued at up to €10 billion, set to begin in February 2026. Following these developments, SAP experienced a 14% decline in Frankfurt after the earnings report was released.

IBM | +8.7% | +25.7B
International Business Machines Corp | IT Consulting & Other Services
International Business Machines Corp reported robust fourth-quarter results for 2025, with revenue increasing by 12% year-over-year to 19.69 billion, surpassing analyst estimates. Adjusted earnings per share reached 4.52, exceeding expectations of 4.32. The company's generative AI business grew to over 12.5 billion, up from 9.5 billion in the previous quarter. IBM anticipates free cash flow will rise by approximately 1 billion year-over-year for fiscal year 2026, alongside expected constant currency revenue growth exceeding 5%. Following these results, there was notable enthusiasm on social media, with discussions highlighting the strong performance and a premarket upgrade from Wedbush that coincided with a 9% increase in share price. Additionally, gross margins improved by 110 basis points to 60.6%, reinforcing positive sentiment surrounding the company's financial health.

MSFT | -6.8% | -227.5B
Microsoft Corp | Systems Software
Microsoft's shares have experienced a significant decline following its recent earnings report, despite reporting revenue of $81.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $4.14, both surpassing analyst expectations. The Azure cloud division's growth of 39% exceeded estimates but raised concerns as it fell short of previous quarter performance. Capital expenditures surged to $37.5 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase, amplifying worries about the company's investment strategy, particularly in artificial intelligence. Additionally, approximately 45% of Microsoft's cloud contracted backlog is linked to OpenAI, with plans for a potential investment of up to $60 billion in collaboration with Nvidia. Analysts have responded by lowering their price targets for Microsoft, further influencing market sentiment negatively.

NOW | -9.1% | -2.2B
ServiceNow Inc | Systems Software
ServiceNow Inc has faced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping by 8.5% amid multiple analyst downgrades. Canaccord Genuity has reduced its price target to 200 from 224, while Stifel and Baird have lowered theirs to 180 and 175, respectively. KeyB has maintained an underweight rating, slashing its target from 155 to 115 following the company's recent earnings report. Despite reporting a fourth-quarter revenue of 3.57 billion, surpassing estimates, and announcing a new $5 billion share buyback plan, these downgrades have fostered bearish sentiment. Social media discussions reflect mixed sentiments; while some posts express concern about potential downturns, others highlight strong performance metrics and a high customer renewal rate of 98%, suggesting resilience against AI-related risks. Notably, ServiceNow's price movement coincides with a substantial decline in SAP SE, which may reflect broader market sentiments affecting both companies.

META | +8.8% | +162.1B
Meta Platforms Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Meta Platforms Inc. reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, with revenue of 59.89 billion, surpassing the forecast of 58.30 billion, and an adjusted earnings per share of 8.88 compared to the expected 8.16. The company experienced a strong revenue growth rate of 24% year-over-year. Following these results, analysts have raised their price targets, with Jefferies increasing theirs to 1,000 and BAML to 880. The firm also plans significant capital expenditures for 2026, projected between 115 billion and 135 billion, aimed at advancing AI initiatives and infrastructure enhancements. Additionally, daily active users reached 3.58 billion, reflecting a 7% increase year-over-year, while ad impressions rose by 18%, and average ad prices increased by 6%. The Q1 2026 revenue guidance is set between 53.5 billion and 56.5 billion, exceeding estimates of 51.27 billion.

TSLA | +1.6% | +21.9B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc reported its fourth-quarter earnings for 2025, revealing revenue of 24.9 billion, surpassing estimates of 24.78 billion, and an adjusted EPS of 0.50, exceeding expectations of 0.45. Despite these positive earnings, revenue declined by 3% year-over-year. Operating income was reported at 1.41 billion, above the forecast of 1.32 billion, with an automotive gross margin of 20.1%. CEO Elon Musk announced plans to discontinue the Model S and Model X production lines in Q2 2026, reallocating resources towards the production of the Optimus humanoid robot, with a target capacity of one million units annually. Additionally, Tesla plans to increase capital expenditures to over 20 billion for 2026, significantly higher than previous forecasts. The company also noted a growth in its full self-driving subscription base, reaching 1.1 million by the end of 2025.

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