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Monday, February 23

Noteworthy macro moves today: Hang Seng 50 Index (China) +2.4%. Bitcoin -1.9%. USD/CNH -0.2%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) +3.2%. Mastercard Inc (MA) -1.0%. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) -0.9%. 

Global equity markets are trading mixed as investors react to a combination of economic data releases and geopolitical developments, particularly surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and recent tariff announcements by President Trump. The Hang Seng Index in China has surged significantly, reflecting positive sentiment in Asian markets, while U.S. indices are experiencing declines amid concerns over renewed tariff policies following the Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's previous measures.

In the U.S., the Chicago Fed National Activity Index released this morning rose to +0.18 for January, significantly exceeding expectations of -0.08 and indicating a rebound in economic activity after several months of contraction. This improvement is primarily driven by production-related indicators, which have contributed positively for the first time since August 2022, suggesting renewed optimism about growth prospects.

Additionally, Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index was released today at a value of 88.6 for February, surpassing forecasts and signaling improved business sentiment among German firms despite ongoing trade challenges linked to tariffs imposed by the U.S. This data reflects cautious optimism regarding economic recovery in Europe’s largest economy amidst external pressures that could influence future growth trajectories.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) [+2.3%]
Spot silver prices have increased, supported by rising demand for safe-haven assets amid tariff uncertainties. Following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that overturned former President Trump's tariffs, temporary tariffs on U.S. imports have been raised, contributing to a slight decline in the U.S. Dollar Index. This environment has fostered a favorable sentiment towards precious metals. Concurrently, gold prices have also surged, reflecting broader market enthusiasm for these assets. Social media discussions around the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) highlight bullish positioning in options, with expectations for price increases driven by recent developments, including a rise in Silver Eagles prices. Additionally, a notable drop in the Cass Freight Index suggests potential increases in precious metals like silver, while technical analysis indicates support at the $86 level, with anticipations of upward movement toward key retracement levels.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-2.1%]
Bitcoin has declined significantly, dropping below 65,000 amid ongoing volatility in the cryptocurrency market. This decline coincides with broader economic concerns and a noticeable shift toward traditional equity markets, evidenced by gains in indices such as the Kospi. Recent social media discussions revealed that leveraged long positions worth approximately 230 million were liquidated within an hour, contributing to total crypto liquidations of about 468 million. Additionally, Bitdeer has liquidated all its Bitcoin holdings. In contrast, MicroStrategy has continued its acquisition strategy, purchasing more Bitcoin, raising its total holdings to 717,722 BTC. Ethereum has also seen a downturn, decreasing in value and reflecting a strong correlation with Bitcoin's price movements.

NVO | -14.6% | -19.8B
Novo Nordisk A/S | Pharmaceuticals
Novo Nordisk A/S has seen a significant drop in its stock price following the announcement that its obesity drug, CagriSema, failed to meet its primary endpoint in the Phase 3 REDEFINE 4 trial. The trial results showed CagriSema achieved a weight loss of 23%, compared to 25.5% for Eli Lilly's tirzepatide. This disappointing outcome has led to a decline of over 14% in Novo's stock, which has now reached a four-year low. The failure raises concerns about CagriSema's potential peak sales, previously estimated at $14 billion, and highlights the competitive challenges Novo Nordisk faces in the obesity treatment market, particularly as Eli Lilly appears to strengthen its position. Concurrently, discussions on social media reflect worries about the company's pipeline and upcoming patent expirations for its popular drugs, Wegovy and Ozempic.

LLY | +3.4% | +33.7B
Eli Lilly and Co | Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly's stock has risen significantly in pre-market trading, buoyed by developments in the obesity drug market. A recent phase 3 trial, REDEFINE 4, revealed that Novo Nordisk's CagriSema failed to achieve non-inferiority to Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, with weight loss results of 23.0% for CagriSema compared to 25.5% for tirzepatide. This disappointing outcome has negatively impacted Novo Nordisk, which saw its shares drop nearly 15% in pre-market trading. In contrast, Eli Lilly's shares increased by about 3% following the news. Analysts from Jefferies had previously set a price target for Eli Lilly at $158.5, driven by expected peak sales for GLP-1 drugs, further reinforcing a positive outlook for the company amidst intensified competition in the obesity treatment sector.

DASH | -3.8% | -2.6B
DoorDash Inc | Restaurants
DoorDash Inc. has seen a decline in premarket trading, dropping significantly and falling below its close from February 18, just ahead of its earnings report. This reflects market apprehension regarding the company's financial performance amidst scrutiny. On February 21, the CFO reported that Monthly Active Users (MAUs) have reached an all-time high, with strong order frequency and engagement from new consumers. Earlier that day, the CEO noted that the year-over-year increase in Total Orders for Q4 2025 was driven by growth in consumer numbers and average engagement, alongside the acquisition of Deliveroo. Excluding this acquisition, Total Orders increased year-over-year by 20% for Q4 2025. Despite a revenue of $3.96 billion for the fourth quarter, which marked a substantial increase year-over-year, it fell short of analyst expectations. Analysts maintain a general sentiment of "Moderate Buy" for the stock, reflecting mixed optimism and caution regarding future profitability amid rising costs.

LYB | -2.7% | -487.8M
LyondellBasell Industries NV | Commodity Chemicals
LyondellBasell Industries NV has recently revised its 2030 sustainability goals, emphasizing disciplined capital allocation and adaptability to market conditions. The company targets a 32% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, using 2020 as a baseline. It also aims to produce and market 800,000 metric tons of recycled and renewable-based polymers annually by the same year. Concurrently, LyondellBasell announced a dividend reduction amid ongoing industry challenges, which has sparked discussions on social media. Some users suggest that this cut may have already been priced into the stock, noting a rise in LYB's stock following the announcement. In the broader market context, LYB has moved down significantly, coinciding with declines in Packaging Corp of America and the Russell 2000 Index.

DPZ | +4.6% | +643.5M
Domino's Pizza Inc | Restaurants
Domino's Pizza reported its fourth-quarter earnings on February 23, 2026, with an earnings per share (EPS) of 5.35, slightly below the consensus estimate of 5.39. The company's revenue reached 1.54 billion, exceeding expectations of 1.52 billion and reflecting a year-over-year increase from 1.44 billion. U.S. same-store sales grew by 3.7%, while international same-store sales rose by 0.7%. Notably, Domino's announced a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend to 1.99 per share. Despite the earnings miss, these results contributed to a positive market response, with shares gaining approximately 5.5% in pre-market trading. Social media discussions highlighted concerns about affordability among consumers, but also noted the revenue beat and dividend increase as positive indicators.

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